08/30/2020 - 14:15
- Clarín.com
- World
"I am the president of the covid-19, " Luis Lacalle Pou said in March, shortly after taking office and the first cases of the new coronavirus appeared in Uruguay just 13 days later.
The pandemic that is hitting the world changed all the plans of the new government, but it also ended up becoming an unexpected popularity card . Polls show that 60% of Uruguayans approve of his administration, when only 48% gave him their vote last November.
The credit obtained by the center-right president who put an end to 15 years of governments of the leftist Frente Amplio (FA), and who this Tuesday celebrates six months in power, runs in parallel with the successful management of the health crisis.
In a continent with very high contagion figures, the country of 3.4 million inhabitants has been praised for its control of the disease : it registers 1,570 cases and 44 deaths from covid-19. The United States recognized Uruguay as a "model" in the region for its handling of the pandemic and is, on that basis, the only Latin American nation to which the European Union has opened its borders.
However, many wonder how long the government will be able to capitalize on this health success, in the midst of the economic crisis caused by the epidemic that has led more than 200,000 Uruguayans to unemployment insurance.
One of the protests seen in Montevideo these days. AFP photo
"It is logical that Uruguayans judge the government for how it handled the main issue on the agenda, which by its nature represented a threat to life," political scientist Daniel Chasquetti told AFP. But, he emphasizes, "life in Uruguay has been normalizing and that allows other issues to begin to arouse special interest . "
In front of the Executive Tower (headquarters of the Presidency) there are demonstrations every week from the public sectors, who protest over budget cuts , and private sectors , who demand more measures to reactivate themselves.
These demonstrations have been accelerated in view of the vote on the Budget, which Parliament will begin to discuss on Tuesday to define the allocation of resources during the government's five-year period.
Meanwhile, politiciansEamplistas demand an emergency basic income and assure that the government is investing insufficient resources to attend the socio-economic effects of the pandemic . The opposition brandishes a ECLAC report that stated that Uruguay is one of the countries in the region that has made the least efforts to prevent the growth of poverty.
According to an official study presented at the end of July, there are 2,553 people living on the streets, 25% more than in 2019 , while popular pots are multiplying throughout the country.
Currently, "the main issue of concern is the economic situation," says Chasquetti. " The government does not have a concrete plan to face this situation (...) It is committed to making adjustments in the macroeconomy", reducing spending, to favor a recovery in 2021.
Lacalle Pou seeks to attract investments in the country of meat, soybeans, pulp, software and tourism to face the difficulties.
Complex numbers
With an already strong inherited fiscal deficit of 5%, the government expects this to rise to 6.5% by the end of 2020 , along with a 3.5% drop in economic activity.
In this framework, the analyst believes "it is very likely that in the coming months the social mood will change and the strong support it has today will erode."
Lacalle Pou has also faced dissonances in the ruling coalition , which many have predicted little time to live since it was formed last year to face the FA in presidential elections.
The resignation of Foreign Minister Ernesto Talvi due to differences with the president and the constant disagreements with representatives of the far-right Cabildo Abierto (CA) have rekindled those fears.
However, analysts believe the coalition passed its first litmus test by passing the package of key laws for the government known as the Law of Urgent Consideration (LUC). "Now it will have to pass a second strong test, which will be the Budget, " political scientist Eduardo Bottinelli told AFP.
For Bottinelli, it is "to be expected" that the coalition will not last the entire period. "In the next 2-3 years we should expect more pronounced profiling and probably strong dissonances. Coalition partners have the need to generate their own agenda and differentiation for the 2024 elections."
Much earlier, on September 27, another electoral appointment awaits, in which Uruguayans will elect mayors, councilors and mayors for the 19 departments of the country.
In this election, the FA puts its six municipalities at stake, of which according to polls it would retain four, including the two most important in the country: Montevideo and Canelones.
Will the high approval of the government influence the municipal elections?
For Chasquetti, "normally, national politics have little influence on departmental elections . "
"There is enough evidence to show that the departments have their own local agendas. The department that is most sensitive to national politics is Montevideo, but the polls do not show a transfer of the government's popularity to the voting intention of its candidate."
Source: AFP
PB