Corona much more dangerous? Expert surprises with conclusion: "At least ten times as deadly as the flu"

Epidemiologist Rod Jackson cites several reasons for the inconsistencies in the corona mortality rating.

He also makes a comparison with the flu.

• The danger of the

  coronavirus *

  is

  rated

  by many experts on the basis of

  mortality

  .

• The epidemiologist

  Rod Jackson

  explains the reasons for discrepancies in the

  calculation

  .

• His comparison with the

  flu

  is clear:

  Covid-19 *

  is at least ten times as deadly.

Auckland / Munich - How dangerous the

for humans is

often

determined by many

not only in

the number of

, but also of the

.

How high the proportion of deceased actually is, however, is so far unclear.

New Zealand epidemiologist

from the

explains three reasons for errors in

calculations

and approaches to solving them.

Especially at the beginning of the

, some experts thought the

no more dangerous than the

.

There are now many studies around the world on

, most of which

now

see

as significantly more dangerous.

There is a study

in the

that

holds

up to

than the

.

In

his guest article for the

the

epidemiologist

the question of why there are

in the assessment of the

and why the numbers fluctuate between different countries.

. @ c_drosten mentions a new study in @heutejournal (September 27th) that clarifies the age dependency of # COVID19 mortality (IFR) and shows that the IFR in the USA, for example, is 16 times higher than that of the sais.

Influenza.

Accordingly, IFR in 🇩🇪 would be ≈1%.

1 / 5⏬https: //t.co/n614NA3DHy pic.twitter.com/J2m4vDfp4a

- Christian Erdmann (@vercheckt) September 29, 2020

Corona: Expert explains inconsistencies in the assessment of mortality

One

for this is that the

and

of

not precisely known.

To calculate the mortality rate, you need the proportion of

who

.

So the

number of

is divided by the number of people

.

writes that while this sounds easy, information on these two numbers is difficult to find.

Due to the high number of

, it is not possible to say clearly how many people are actually infected.

In addition, in many cases it is not clear whether someone

dies

or

.

Often this can only be

clarified

during a subsequent

.

The

explains that it is not

an

mortality

, but an

mortality percentage.

In epidemiology, a rate requires a time component.

Jackson's

approach to solving this problem is large-scale and representative

.

In order

to estimate

the true denominator of

not only

for

needed

, but also for

.

Corona: Confusion of confirmed infections with actual cases as a calculation problem

Another

in the

of

was the

of

with the

.

explains that while both calculations use the same numerator, they use different denominators.

The epidemiologist explains: "Some people have no symptoms, many other infections are not reported for other reasons."

He gives an example: Of 100 people

, only 50 could have

exhibit.

If they report and test positive, the total number of registered cases is 50. If one of these cases dies, the

is

, it is

, since there are 100 people

with

.

In the video: Coronavirus - Drosten reports on a terrifying study on mortality

Coronavirus: Compared to other infectious diseases difficult

The

to other infectious diseases such as the

is thus

.

The

underestimated in

, the

from statistical methods.

The

explains that by far not all

related

recognized as such, or even confirmed.

The number of

is therefore from the

in the

that

the

occur and the

, which would have occurred if

would have been calculated.

Jackson

therefore suggests

discarding

any information where the

based on the

rather than the

of people actually

.

Corona: Calculation of mortality only applies to certain groups

The

with calculating

, according to the epidemiologist, is that it only relates to certain groups.

"The percentage of

from infections varies greatly between different groups of people and depends in particular on a person's age and whether they have other diseases," explains

.

The number of deaths in a particular group could therefore only be transferred to a group with

.

In addition,

criticizes

the

many small studies.

The results of

often published in advance on PrePrint servers and discussed in the media without an independent review.

He relativizes that at the beginning of the

course, only small studies were available and you had to make the most of them.

With the

available today

, however, it is possible to work much better.

Coronavirus: Expert explains: "That means that Covid-19 is at least ten times as deadly as the flu"

"Experienced

have recognized that they need to use information from large populations of representative people in a representative age range with representative clinical pictures," explains

.

This is the only way to derive

representative estimates of

mortality.

Studies with fewer than several hundred

are not useful, explains the epidemiologist.

Jackson

researches at the

itself for

.

Similar to the

,

his team uses

the number of

compared to the

that

would

have been reported

in the same period in previous years

.

The epidemiologist's team also includes different

cases in their calculations

with a.

According to

calculations, which the epidemiologist considers very cautious,

one person

dies for every 100 people

with

.

One

person in 1,000 infected dies from

the

.

concludes: "That means that

at least

as the

."