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Security forces and protesters in Minsk
Photo: Stringer / AFP
What happened on the streets of Minsk on Sunday was partly reminiscent of the violence shortly after the presidential election two months ago.
Security forces were tougher and more aggressive than in the previous weeks against peaceful demonstrators who wanted to gather.
They attacked peaceful demonstrators with fists and batons, even when they were on the ground.
They set off stun grenades in the midst of crowds, used pepper spray against protesters, and hunted them down at gunpoint with which they could fire rubber bullets.
At least 40 people suffered injuries, according to media reports, pictures showed men with blood-smeared faces and bandages around their heads.
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Injured protester in Minsk
Photo: Natalia Fedosenko / ITAR-TASS / imago images
Belarusian reporters tried to document what was happening on Sunday if they could still work.
Already at the beginning of the "March of Pride", which the opposition Telegram channel Nexta called nationwide, dozens of them, including Russian reporters, were taken away.
In doing so, the regime again targeted journalists.
According to human rights activists, around 300 people, media representatives and demonstrators were arrested in Belarus, many at the beginning of the protests.
Ultimately, tens of thousands of protesters marched through the city in Minsk alone.
The exact number of demonstrators was difficult to estimate, also because the forces dispersed the groups.
Lukashenko holds meetings with opponents
Belarus experienced a weekend of different embassies.
On Saturday, ruler Alexander Lukashenko showed up with imprisoned members of the opposition, including Viktor Babariko.
He held the four and a half hour meeting in remand prison No. 1 of his secret service KGB, according to the Telegram channel "Pool des Erste", which is close to Lukashenko.
A short video was also released.
It was the first time ever that the ruler had such pictures published with political opponents.
"The meeting came as a surprise to everyone," said political scientist Olga Dryndova to SPIEGEL.
"He admitted the existence of political prisoners in the country."
"Sign of Weakness"
For a long time the Lukashenko regime portrayed the opposition as criminals.
A dialogue with criminals does not need a strong leader, said Minsk political scientist Artur Schraibman snappy on Telegram.
"80 percent
(editor's note: This is the election result that Lukashenko had published for himself)
Legitimacy gives you the right to reform without going to jail."
Dryndova therefore speaks of a "sign of weakness".
Lukashenko's meeting shows that he saw no choice but to take this step.
By then Belarus had found itself in a "stalemate" after the election overshadowed by forgeries and manipulations, says Dryndova: Neither the protesting people nor the regime with its repressions have so far been able to resolve the conflict in their favor.
Pictures of the state television of the Lukashenko meeting:
Dialogue on its terms
It was noticeable that Sergei Tichanowskij, Svetlana Tichanowskaja's husband, and Marija Kolesnikowa were not present during the conversation with Lukashenko, the content of which is hardly known.
In addition, only Lukashenko can be heard in a short video, there are only a few pictures of the opposition members.
It is absurd scenes how the ruler tells the opponents gathered around the table that he is conducting a dialogue, telling them that a new constitution will not be written in the street, which can also be understood as a warning to the demonstrators.
To what extent the imprisoned opposition activists voluntarily participated in the meeting is not known.
One thing is clear: Lukashenko will only conduct a dialogue if it takes place on his terms.
To what extent the stalemate in the country can be resolved is hardly foreseeable.
Lukashenko seems to be far from real negotiations, for example in the form of a round table with various representatives of the opposition.
Especially since his behavior doesn't seem logical.
"It just doesn't fit together that Lukashenko speaks of dialogue on the one hand, and on the other the security forces take action this time much harder than usual against demonstrators. But his behavior is not always logical," says Dryndova.
Against Tichanovskaya
Jörg Forbrig,
Director for Central and Eastern Europe at the German Marshall
Fund, sees in Lukashenko's actions the intention to undermine Tichanwoskaya's position as an important leader of the democratic movement.
"Your support within Belarus and your international reputation are higher than ever," he wrote on Facebook.
Tichanwoskaja was received by Chancellor Angela Merkel this week.
That is why Lukashenko is now betting on Babriko, according to Forbrig, who he believes should be brought back into the political game.
Lukashenko had Babriko, the ex-manager of Belgazprombank, a subsidiary of the Russian state company Gazprom, arrested in June.
He is accused of alleged money laundering and tax evasion.
Babriko was considered the candidate with the best chances in the presidential election.
Babriko's name, as the well-informed editor-in-chief of the Kremlin-critical broadcaster Echo Moskwy reported, is said to have been mentioned during the talks between Lukashenko and Putin in Sochi.
Putin had approved the constitutional reforms, but his foreign minister Sergei Lavrov called for a broad social dialogue that included the opposition.
"You don't have a dialogue in a prison cell"
Babariko is considered to be far more acceptable to the Kremlin than Tichanovskaya, whom the Kremlin spokesman only describes as a "citizen".
There is already speculation about Babriko's release.
Does Lukashenko want to send such a sign to Moscow?
But why should he get involved in a constitutional reform that the opposition clearly rejects?
Tichanwoskaja and other members of the opposition believe that Lukashenko is trying to play for time and is trying to weaken the protest with reform.
Tichanovskaya spoke on Twitter "of an imitation of a dialogue" with which Lukashenko only wanted to divide the Belarusians.
She again called for new elections and the release of all political prisoners.
"You don't have dialogue in a prison cell," she said.
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