Who will win Nevada?
4:25
(CNN) ––
As Joe Biden approaches the 270 electoral votes he needs to defeat President Donald Trump in the White House race, it's worth considering what politics would look like if the former vice president is elected.
Also, if Biden has any chance of fulfilling his promise to restore some sense of normalcy to our politics and our country.
LEE: Minute by minute of the elections
“The American people want their government to work.
And I don't think it's too much to ask, "Biden said during the speech announcing his presidential candidacy in May 2019." I know some people in Washington City say it can't be done.
But let me tell you something and make sure you understand this: the country is tired of division.
They are sick of the fights.
They are fed up with childish behavior, "he added.
The belief that underpinned the Biden campaign and led to a promise
That belief - that Trump was an anomaly, a glitch in the Matrix - underpinned Biden's entire campaign for the primary and general elections.
He campaigned as the candidate for change.
Just to put things back to the way they were in the old days, not so bad, when Republicans and Democrats clashed, but finally found ways to work together.
Biden's message, broken down in its simplest terms, was this: We Democrats and Republicans are better than these last four years.
LOOK: Live results: electoral projection in the USA.
Now, the question, both in the primary and general elections, was: are we?
advertising
Liberal Democrats insisted that Biden's belief that Republicans would somehow awaken from Trump's fever dream if he were defeated was decidedly wishful thinking.
That the Republican Party is fundamentally lost and has little interest in getting back to normal.
And then there are the Trump-backed Republicans who spent the last few days of the campaign making wild and baseless claims about Joe Biden's son Hunter.
Also insisting that the former vice president was senile.
And who now, led by Trump, insist ––without evidence–– that the legitimate vote count in the 6 states that are still in the scrutiny process is somehow wrong or dire.
(It is neither, this is how democracy works.)
Tough Time cover on US division 0:46
What would await Biden if he wins the election and could keep his promise?
Biden has a lot more ways to win than Trump right now.
But even if he succeeds, real questions remain about whether the fundamental promise of Biden's campaign can be achieved remotely.
Trump, because he is precisely Trump, will not go quietly with a defeat.
Instead, he is likely to refuse to award the race to Biden.
Even using the ridiculous notion that counting all legally cast votes was in some way an abolition of democracy.
That victimization, which has always been at the core of Trump's personality, will fuel calls among his loyal followers to run a kind of shadow presidency for the next four years.
And, yes, possibly even to run for president again in 2024.
Joe Biden's path to 270 electoral votes 4:43
Whether or not Trump ultimately seeks a third presidential nomination is an impossible question to answer at this point.
However, he will retain the possibility for as long as possible to exert massive influence over the Republican Party.
Most importantly, to keep yourself in the news and as a relevant figure.
Biden will have to deal with Trump by shaking things up from the outside.
Furthermore, even within Washington there are significant obstacles to Biden's hopes of getting things back to normal.
The strength of the Republicans
Republicans are almost certain to retain the majority in the Senate in 2021. It's a notable result given the predictions of political forecasters that Democrats were favored in an anti-Trump wave in the majority.
That means every part of Biden's presidency - from his picks for cabinet positions to his political priorities - will need Republican support to pass.
And it's quite possible that (probably still) Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell makes the strategic decision that cooperating with Biden on, well, anything, will not benefit his party's chances of regaining the White House in 2024. .
LEE: More Latino voters support Trump in 2020 than in 2016, but young Americans favor Biden, according to CNN's first exit polls
Across the Capitol, Democrats will retain their majority in the House, but not without paying a price.
Republicans will win seats as a result of the 2020 elections, a shift from pre-election expectations that has already prompted a call from Democratic ranks to assess what went wrong.
That reckoning will almost certainly pit liberals against moderates in the House Democratic group: Both groups will insist that if the party had only listened to them more, things on Nov. 3 would have been different.
A Trump who remains relevant.
A surprisingly afloat Republican Party in the Senate and House.
And a divided Democratic Party on the brink of ideological warfare.
This will be the political reality that Biden will face if he is elected president.
And it's a set of facts that could well ruin his chances of achieving his central campaign promise: making politics normal again.
Elections 2020 United StatesJoe Biden
