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US election: What matters now, why it takes so long - the overview

2020-11-05T12:00:15.575Z


It drags on with the bottom line of the US election. In five states, both Donald Trump and Joe Biden still have chances: what matters now and when the decision will be made.


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Protesters protest in New York City for the count of all votes cast

Photo: CARLO ALLEGRI / REUTERS

It is just after 2 a.m. in Washington when it is clear: Donald Trump will be the new President of the United States.

His challenger Hillary Clinton accepted her defeat on November 9, 2016. Only a few hours earlier, the last polling stations in the USA had closed.

It's really not going as fast as it was then four years later.

On day two after the US election, the big questions are still completely open: Who will lead the country in the future?

Trump, the incumbent?

Or Joe Biden, his Democratic competitor?

And what power base can the next president build on from now on?

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Trump challenger Joe Biden

Photo: Carolyn Kaster / AP

In the past, elections in a single state have usually turned out to be tremendous.

This time, both candidates can still raise their hopes in a total of five states: In Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, the race for the decisive voters is extremely close.

(Follow the developments in the live ticker.)

The most important questions and answers at a glance:

Who has the better chance?

Joe Biden is currently ahead.

Certainly there are currently 253 voters.

The TV broadcaster Fox News and the AP news agency also gave him the state of Arizona with 11 votes at an early stage.

(We also refer to this data in the graphics on SPIEGEL.de.) However, Trump catches up in the course of the count, CNN, for example, still gives him opportunities in Arizona.

If Biden wins anyway, he only has to win in one of the four remaining states.

In sparsely populated Nevada, Biden is just in the lead, the 6 electorate there would be enough to get a majority of 270 votes - it would be a precision landing.

If Biden still loses in Arizona and Nevada, he would have to win at least in Pennsylvania (20 voters) or in both Georgia (16) and North Carolina (15).

In these three states, Trump led clearly at first, but Biden is getting closer and closer.

In Georgia and Pennsylvania in particular, the Democrats believe they have a good chance of eventually overtaking the incumbent.

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US President Donald Trump

Photo: Chris Kleponis / imago images / UPI Photo

Trump, in turn, can currently safely book 214 voters.

In addition, there are almost certainly three votes from Alaska, where the count is not very far advanced.

Trump currently seems at a disadvantage compared to Biden, but that can only be a snapshot.

The surest way for him to be re-elected would be to keep his lead in Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania and still get through in either Nevada or Arizona.

Why is the count taking so long?

In Corona times, the percentage of postal voters is particularly high this time - so high that it has a decisive influence on the overall results in the individual countries.

In many places, however, postal votes are only counted at the very end.

At the same time, supporters of the Democrats are disproportionately represented among the postal voters.

As a result, Joe Biden managed to turn things around at the end of the count after an initial deficit in Wisconsin and Michigan.

The Democrats are now hoping for a similar effect, especially in the eastern states, while Trump in Arizona seems to benefit from the votes that were evaluated late.

However, there are different requirements in the states as to how long which ballot papers may be considered.

In Pennsylvania, for example, a vote is still valid if it is received up to three days after the election - provided the postmark shows November 3rd as the election date at the latest.

In addition, there are various mishaps that can delay local results.

According to the US media, a water pipe burst in an arena in Atlanta, Georgia, where postal ballot papers are stored.

The count was temporarily suspended.

When can an end result be expected?

That depends above all on how quickly a reliable majority is established for one of the two candidates in the particularly critical states of Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania, over which the latecomers would no longer have any influence.

It is quite possible that it will take hours, maybe even days, before a decision is made.

Nevada has already announced that it will be a long time before a result is announced.

Above all, however, there is a threat of litigation wherever it is particularly tight.

President Trump had already declared himself the winner on Tuesday night, regardless of the uncertain situation - and advanced his story of alleged electoral fraud.

There is no evidence of this.

Trump said he will go to the Supreme Court, the US Supreme Court.

In truth, however, the fight is likely to take place primarily before local courts in the states concerned or their higher-level instances.

Lawyers from both camps are already getting into position - a tough struggle, possibly for weeks, threatens.

How are the congressional elections going?

The one question in this US election is who will reside in the White House in the future.

The other, how much influence he will have at all.

At the same time as president, parts of the congress are newly elected.

The Democrats already hold the House of Representatives.

Nothing should change that now.

But in the end the party's hopes of gaining a majority in the Senate were great.

Only with both chambers would Biden be able to implement his program largely unhindered if he were elected.

But probably nothing will come of it.

Democrats and Republicans are currently tied with 48 seats (majority: 51).

But observers believe that the Republicans will remain the leading force in the Senate.

In the best case scenario, the Democrats can hope for a stalemate.

If Biden wins, his Vice President Kamala Harris could vote for a democratic majority in the Senate.

A continued Republican-dominated Senate would have serious consequences for Biden as president.

He could not easily push through his most important political projects and reforms, as well as his candidates for high judicial posts.

Especially since the previous Republican majority leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, had already focused on destructive blocking rather than compromise-oriented politics under Barack Obama.

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kev

Source: spiegel

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