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(CNN) -
President-elect Joe Biden's agenda in Washington can only go as far as Mitch McConnell will allow.
McConnell, the Senate Republican leader, was re-elected in Kentucky for a seventh term last week.
The senator is poised to be the key to Biden's legislative agenda no matter what happens in two likely runoff elections in Georgia in January that will determine which party controls the chamber.
And that means Biden will have to immediately confront the reality that he could force bipartisan deals, which could thwart the left, or face a wall of Republican opposition led by a canny Senate leader who has long preached. the unity of the party in the face of its Democratic opponents.
Either way, McConnell is obligated to substantially limit the scope of the Democratic agenda, be it on immigration or climate change, and it could affect how Biden makes crucial appointments to the federal courts and his cabinet.
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But a dynamic could be at play to alter the typical deadlock that has dominated Washington in recent years: Biden and McConnell have a history of closing deals together and have developed a bond that they say is built on trust after serving. together in the House for decades.
Democrats fear veto by Mitch McConell and Republicans
Democrats are skeptical.
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"No matter what happens in Georgia, it's going to be very difficult to get anything passed in the Senate," Sen. Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat, told CNN.
"What really worries me is an instantaneous constitutional crisis in which Mitch McConnell refuses to confirm any of Joe Biden's appointees unless they have received a personal stamp of approval from Mitch McConnell."
Illinois Senator Dick Durbin, the second Democrat, put it bluntly: “What Mitch McConnell will we get?
… If you're willing to sit down with Biden, if you feel like you should, it can lead to something bipartisan and positive.
If you take the other approach, we are preparing for the next presidential elections, we are going to have as empty an agenda in the Senate as we have had in recent years.
McConnell's confidants say it's not that simplistic.
They argue that it will be Biden's decision on how to govern: to work with Republican senators to find a bipartisan consensus, or to cater to left and House Democrats, something that would lead to the likelihood of a blocked agenda.
"Make no mistake: If Mitch McConnell remains the Majority Leader of the United States Senate, he will be able to control the worst impulses in this Democratic Party," said Senator Todd Young, a Republican from Indiana who chairs the Party's campaign arm. Republican in the Senate.
Navigating the Senate, a body where Biden served for 36 years, will be the incoming president's biggest challenge.
Biden will be pressured by Democrats in the House of Representatives to push for an ambitious agenda, even if he has no chance in the Senate.
And if he makes deals with McConnell, he is sure to provoke a backlash from his liberal supporters.
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Representative Pramila Jayapal, who co-chairs the House progressive group, told CNN that Biden should not back down from a "bold" agenda, no matter what McConnell prefers.
In contrast, the other caucus chairman, Wisconsin Rep. Mark Pocan, said, “I think people want us to do something, period.
And I don't know how the problem of the Republican Senate is solved.
"If Mitch McConnell is going to go back into his shell and we are not going to move the legislation, then that is a different calculation," Pocan added.
The issues will be difficult for both sides to resolve, particularly in healthcare if the Supreme Court repeals the Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare.
In addition, lawmakers are facing an economic stimulus package to deal with the impact of the new coronavirus, a top priority in a session of Congress that begins Monday.
Other issues, such as infrastructure spending and managing prescription drug prices, have generated bipartisan interest, but the details have long confused both sides.
Even Republicans who criticized President Donald Trump issued a warning to Biden on Sunday.
It's pretty clear they don't want the
Green New Deal
.
It's pretty clear that they don't want Medicare for everyone.
They don't want higher taxes.
They don't want to get rid of oil, gas and coal, "Utah Sen. Mitt Romney, a frequent critic of Trump, said of American voters during an interview Sunday on CNN's" State of the Union. "
"Any argument to the contrary will meet with much resistance from the American people and members of Congress."
Depending on what happens to the two Georgia Senate races, one of which has already advanced to a runoff on Jan.5, and the other likely will, McConnell will be in charge of the Senate agenda as leader. of the majority, with a 52-48 or a 51-49 advantage.
Or he will be in the minority with a 50-50 evenly split Senate, where Vice President-elect Kamala Harris would break tied votes.
Even if he is in the minority, Republicans would have the power to stop legislation in its tracks using filibuster, something that requires 60 votes to overcome.
And Democrats fully recognize that a 50-50 Senate is unlikely to change the obstruction rules because a number of Democratic senators are opposed to making changes to the powerful stalemate tactic.
(It would take 50 senators to agree to change the obstruction rules, with the vice president breaking the tie.)
"We are divided as they can be divided, and I have always said that I am not willing to do anything to further divide us," Senator Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat who opposes changes to the obstruction rules, said in an interview.
Murphy said that if the Democrats had 53 or 54 seats, there would be a "decent chance" of ending the filibuster.
But he added: "If the majority are 50, it is much more difficult to remove the obstructionism."
Democrats anticipate tensions within their party
"It's always tough," Durbin said of the passage of the legislation in the Senate.
“There will always be two or three people who say, 'Wow, you're moving too fast.
You are moving too far to the left.
You're making progress on issues that don't help me at home. '
Durbin added: “The natural inclination is to play with people in the most vulnerable position.
Of course you love them and want to help them.
But if you take that as your criteria, you are going to have a very limited agenda.
If McConnell remains the majority leader, he could essentially have veto power over the legislation in addition to appointments from Biden's cabinet and federal courts, which require a Senate majority to overcome filibuster.
And McConnell will have an important voice in how legislation is shaped, unless 10 Republicans break ranks, challenging in a polarized body unless the Republican leader gives his blessing.
All of that is a recipe for bargaining between McConnell and Biden, who struck a series of critical spending and tax deals during Barack Obama's presidency, including preventing the so-called fiscal cliff that could have put the economy in jeopardy after the election. But such an approach could frustrate Democrats, as any bipartisan deal may not achieve the left's goals.
McConnell and Biden were forced to work together because there was resentment between McConnell and Obama, whom the Republican leader promised to be president for a term after his election, a public pronouncement that many Democrats never forgave.
In a 2016 video for Business Insider, McConnell spoke openly about his dislike of negotiating with Obama, who he said was "unbearable and irritating" because he "thought he was the smartest guy in the room and needed to share it with everyone frequently." .
"The guy to negotiate with in the administration was the vice president, not the president," McConnell said.
“With Biden, we didn't waste a lot of time talking about things we knew we would never agree on.
I didn't lecture him, he didn't lecture me.
We reached the areas where there was a possible agreement and we were able to come up with a result.
A very different experience from being in a negotiating environment with the president.
Four years ago, at the end of Biden's tenure as vice president, McConnell joined senators from both parties in a moving Senate tribute to Biden.
«He has been a true friend.
You have been a trusted partner, and it has been an honor to serve with you.
We will all miss you, ”McConnell told Biden excitedly.
No one would believe their association would be renewed four years later with Biden returning to the White House as president and needing a Republican partner in the Senate to help him advance his agenda.
Mitch McConell Senate