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Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán: "I have no choice"
Photo: Bernadett Szabo / REUTERS
The relief is great in Brussels and most of the other EU capitals.
For months, the governments argued first among themselves and then with the EU Parliament, now the agreement has been reached: In the next seven years the EU will have a budget of just under 1.1 trillion euros, plus the Corona reconstruction package with a volume of 750 billion euros.
The reactions across all political camps and also from business associations are positive: Finally, one can be certain that the EU can tackle the reconstruction after the devastation of the corona crisis.
But that's not entirely certain - there is a hurdle called Viktor Orbán.
Hungary's head of government does not want to give up his resistance to a certain element of the budget: the so-called rule of law mechanism, which states that the allocation of EU funds should in future be linked to compliance with the rule of law.
The mechanism itself can be decided by the member states by a qualified majority - i.e. if 15 of the 27 member states with at least 65 percent of the EU population are in favor.
So Hungary and Poland could be outvoted.
The overall budget, however, must be decided unanimously.
The same applies to the decision to increase the EU's own resources, which determines where the money for the Corona package comes from.
Orbán threatens to veto again
Orbán and the Polish government allied with him had threatened to torpedo both with their veto should the rule of law mechanism come.
Should that happen, it would be a disaster for the EU.
The consequences would also be so severe for Poland and Hungary - which of all EU countries benefit most from EU funds - that the threat of a veto in the EU Parliament is seen as a bluff.
The MPs pushed through the mechanism in the negotiations unmoved.
Orbán, however, confirmed his position in a letter to EU Council President Charles Michel that became known on Tuesday.
His country has "no choice" than to reject the budget and the corona package.
And the principle still applies: "Nothing is agreed until everything has been agreed."
Now the EU only has two options:
Orbán is still buckling under the pressure of the countries badly affected by the pandemic.
This could be supported by the fact that the Polish government did not participate in his threatening letter to Michel.
In EU circles this is seen as a sign that attempts to separate Poland from Hungary could be successful.
It is hoped that Orbán will not dare to blockade on his own.
Should Orbán live up to his threat, the other member countries could outsource the Corona package from the regular budget and decide among themselves - practically as part of a coalition of the willing.
Hungary, which is supposed to receive a good seven billion euros from the Corona package, would then not get a cent.
The representative of the EU in Warsaw, Poland's former EU ambassador Marek Prawda, has already publicly threatened such a situation.
Such an approach is at least conceivable in the EU Parliament.
"You may have to think about this procedure," said the Green budget negotiator Rasmus Andresen.
At the same time, the pressure on Budapest would increase in terms of the regular budget.
Because its money made up more than four percent of the Hungarian gross domestic product.
So far, Orbán could count on Corona crisis countries such as Italy or Spain to need the money from Brussels even more urgently than Hungary.
If the pandemic aid were decided individually, the crisis countries could look forward to delays in the regular budget more relaxed than Hungary.
EU diplomats point out that it would be a considerable effort to outsource the Corona package and have it ratified individually by the member states involved.
But it wouldn't be impossible - and the motivation to finally show Orbán's limits is high.
Merkel should curb Orbán
In parliament, however, it is hoped that Chancellor Angela Merkel can prevent the scandal.
After all, Merkel's CDU and Orbán's Fidesz are together in the European People's Party, says Green Party politician Andresen.
"I see the Chancellor's duty, especially since she has so far stayed out of it."
However, the member states are less certain whether Merkel still has the strength to contain Orbán.
In any case, EU budget commissioner Johannes Hahn made it clear that Orbán would not make any further concessions: "A package has been negotiated and only this package as a whole can fly."
Anything else would mean going back to the negotiating table.
Every responsible politician is "well advised to see that the agreed funds flow as quickly as possible," said Hahn.
And those who stick to the rules of the game "have no reason to be afraid".
In any case, after the long budget negotiations, he would first relax with an Irish drink, said the Austrian: "I'll treat myself to another Baileys today."
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