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Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev sign the joint declaration by Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia on November 9, 2020
Photo: AZERBAIJAN PRESIDENTÕS PRESS OFFICE HANDOUT / EPA-EFE / Shutterstock
The end came surprisingly quickly: The military conflict in the South Caucasus between Armenia and Azerbaijan was stopped on Tuesday night - with a ceasefire agreement between Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The agreement follows only one day after Azerbaijan's decisive victory in the struggle for the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region - the capture of the strategically and symbolically important city of Shusha (Armenian: Shushi).
The conflict had killed more than a hundred civilians and thousands of militants on both sides since late September.
The short document - a joint "declaration" by President Vladimir Putin, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan - was first published by the Kremlin.
It will presumably fix the new situation in the South Caucasus for years to come.
What are its key points?
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On the way to Nagorno-Karabakh: Russian peacekeepers board a military plane
Photo: - / dpa
Most importantly, the agreement is
robust enough to last
.
It contains the dispatch of a peacekeeping mission made up of almost 2,000 Russian soldiers.
All of the truces agreed so far have failed after a very short time - this one probably not.
None of the warring factions can afford to disregard Moscow's troop presence.
It is initially set for five years.
As expected,
Armenia's military defeat is
clearly reflected in the document.
Azerbaijan must stop its troops on the current front line and cannot advance any further.
But Armenia undertakes to evacuate territories that it occupied as a buffer zone around Nagorno-Karabakh proper in the early 1990s.
The predominantly Armenian-populated autonomous region of Nagorno-Karabakh (which renounced Azerbaijan) was generously supplemented by seven additional districts from which Armenia had expelled the Azerbaijani population.
Blessing in disguise for Armenia: After all,
the
Turkey
that Azerbaijan actively supported in this war, not involved in the agreement.
In any case, she is not officially mentioned in the document, nor did she sign it.
Turkish peacekeepers - a nightmare for the Armenian side - are not mentioned.
The absence of Turkey is the most striking element of the document, and at the same time the most controversial.
Both Turkey and Azerbaijan are now saying that the Turkish military will very well play a role in peacekeeping, in the "Peacekeeping Center for Monitoring the Ceasefire" that the document says is to be created.
"There is not a word about this in the declaration, there is no agreement between the three sides, the presence of Turkish soldiers in Karabakh was not agreed," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
But there is no question that Turkey's influence in the region increased after that war.
Will there actually be unofficial Turkish peacekeepers alongside official Russian peacekeepers?
Two corridors
have been agreed, which make clear the interdependence of the sides with each other and with Russia.
On the one hand, Armenia should continue to have access to that part of Nagorno-Karabakh that is still under its control.
This corridor, 5 kilometers wide, is secured by Russian troops.
Conversely, however, Armenia must grant Azerbaijan access to the Azerbaijani enclave Nakhichevan for the first time - in the form of a transit road that crosses Armenian territory and whose traffic is to be controlled by Russian border troops from the domestic intelligence service FSB.
As Nakhichevan for its part borders on Turkey, Azerbaijan would have a direct connection with its friendly Turkey for the first time since its independence.
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People celebrate the ceasefire agreement in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku
Photo: TOFIK BABAYEV / AFP
And so in the end the document also
codifies Russia's growing role
.
Unlike Turkey, Russia has largely stayed out of the conflict, despite close ties with Armenia.
Not only does it have a significantly higher impact on Armenia.
It also has a military presence on the territory of Azerbaijan - the only state in the South Caucasus where it has not yet had troops.
And finally, the text leaves many
important questions unanswered
- as expected in the case of a ceasefire negotiated under time pressure: What legal status is the prospect of that part of Nagorno-Karabakh that remains under Armenian control?
The text is silent about this.
And the return of refugees and displaced persons is addressed - it should take place under the direction of the UNHCR refugee agency.
But to whom and how the return will be made possible, and how safe returnees can feel, remains unclear.
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