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Turkish President Erdogan at an EU-Turkey meeting in Bulgaria, March 2018
Photo:
Stoyan Nenov / REUTERS
As the saying goes: You change often and rarely improve.
This is how Turkish President Erdoğan thinks about his relationship with the EU.
In 2017 Erdoğan described the European Union as "fascist" and "cruel".
Shortly thereafter, he returned to a more pragmatic course with the EU.
Last October Erdoğan even insulted European politicians as “links in the Nazi chain”, only to finally announce that Turkey sees itself as part of Europe.
What is more, the EU should even deepen and improve cooperation with Turkey.
What are his utterances worth?
The half-life of his statements has so far been short.
There is no place for wishful thinking in relation to Turkey.
Rather, it needs a realism that can be optimistic, but never naive.
For Erdogan, Turkey's interests are synonymous with his personal interest in maintaining power.
He subordinates everything to it, regardless of losses.
After all, Erdoğan and those around him have to fear court hearings or even more if they lose the election.
In this he resembles his soon-to-be-former Trump-Ağabey (German: big brother), to whom he can no longer look up.
But in contrast to the USA, there have been no functioning
checks and balances
in Turkey for a long time
.
There are neither independent institutions nor a strong opposition that could hold Erdoğan back.
However, he feels that the air for him is getting increasingly thinner.
Real improvements in human rights protection and the rule of law in Turkey are needed.
After months of disagreement, the EU member states could impose further sanctions on Turkey this week due to the escalation in the eastern Mediterranean.
Under US President Joe Biden, Ankara is also threatened with harsh US sanctions.
The rulers in Russia and China do not see Erdoğan at eye level and are clearly not a reliable partner for Turkey.
In addition, the Turkish economy is tumbling.
The rate of inflation is in the double-digit range, prices are rising and the population is raging.
But Erdoğan knows that he needs a reasonably functioning economy in order to keep his electorate, which goes beyond the religious-national camp, happy.
Against this background, the door for talks between the EU and Turkey could at least open a crack.
It is finally time for clear text from Brussels to Ankara: First and foremost, real improvements in human rights protection and the rule of law are needed in Turkey.
Ankara must demonstrate goodwill through concrete actions.
Corona could offer a face-saving occasion for Erdoğan to set the political prisoners free.
The EU's human rights sanction mechanism passed last Monday could serve as leverage, even if unanimous decisions are required.
Unfortunately, there are enough serious human rights violations such as arbitrary arrests in Turkey.
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Together with the EU member states, the Federal Government should also work in the Council of Europe to sanction anti-human rights behavior by the Turkish government.
If the German government is serious about its agenda for chairing the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe, it should finally make it clear to Turkey that it is threatened with expulsion from the Council of Europe if it encounters the rulings of the European Court of Human Rights, such as those for the release of Osman Kavala and Selahattin Demirtaş , still ignored.
Ankara must stop all gas exploration off the coast of Greece and Cyprus.
Another condition of the EU must be that Turkey clear the way for a serious diplomatic dialogue on the gas dispute and meanwhile stop all gas exploration off the coasts of Greece and Cyprus - because military threatening gestures obviously do not go with the deepened gestures that Ankara wants strategic cooperation - neither in the EU nor in NATO.
In return, the EU could make Turkey a concrete offer for cooperation in the field of renewable energies.
Ankara's cost-benefit analysis could perhaps be changed.
The gas reserves suspected in the Mediterranean are not profitable due to various risks for the neighboring countries and, above all, are from yesterday in terms of climate and energy policy.
The EU's message must therefore be: only progressive and sustainable climate and energy policy is profitable in the long term.
The Turkish industry, which has to fear future European CO2 import taxes, would be involved in an energy turnaround in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Especially since Ankara wants to become strategically more independent of gas imports from Russia and could do so in a climate-friendly way.
So it is in our interest to include Turkey as an industrialized country in the European Green Deal.
With appropriate accommodation, a modernization of the customs union, which has been discussed for years, could also return to the agenda.
But Ankara has to understand:
There is no free lunch
.
Whoever wants something from us has to protect human rights and stop the rattling of sabers.
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Such a strategy can only work at all if clear goals, measures and monitoring mechanisms are agreed.
As the EU, we must be able to ensure that all sides actually meet their obligations.
It should also include punitive measures so that if military escalations continue in the Eastern Mediterranean, powerful sanctions would be imposed immediately.
This is also a prerequisite for getting Greece, Cyprus and France on board for the initiative.
It would be of value in itself if the EU finally spoke with one voice to Ankara.
Real progress in EU-Turkey relations is only possible with a combination of demands and incentives, that is, carrot and stick.
The EU must not make itself smaller than it is.
At tomorrow's EU summit, the heads of state and government should make it clear: There will be one last offer in Merkel's political style, which Ankara shouldn't refuse.
If Erdoğan does not get involved, there will be an answer à la President Macron - in other words, sanctions that would hit Erdoğan and his henchmen hard.
Brussels, Paris, Berlin and soon Washington should prepare a Macronian answer now.
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