If real estate prices seem to be resisting containment according to the price barometer of our partner Best Agents and the economic crisis the country is going through, we must be wary of short-term effects.
The ban on visits in November is likely to result in fairly marked drops in sales at the start of the 2021 quarter ... So what to expect from this end of the year?
Households still have confidence ...
Admittedly, sales have slipped a little but not prices, outside the big cities.
Thus over the last three months, only a third of municipalities have seen their prices drop slightly to 1.6%.
“The effect of the health crisis is not very marked, for the moment, because we are not witnessing the collapse of prices, underlines Thomas Lefebvre, scientific director at Meilleur Agents.
Even if we know that there will undoubtedly be no catching up in December because people have more the head to prepare for Christmas than to move ”.
However, the future is not that bleak.
"The announcement of a vaccine suggests that the current situation will not last which allows households to consider next year under better auspices," he analyzes.
State mechanisms also help cushion the crisis such as guaranteed loans or partial unemployment.
Finally, bank rates continue to fall.
... but the start of the year will be complicated
Real estate closely follows the state of the economy.
"Social plans follow one another and a very sharp rise in unemployment is expected in 2021, this will inevitably have an impact on prices and future transactions," he fears.
And the problem is global because, as we can see, all socio-professional categories are concerned ”.
In view of the transaction times, three months on average, we already know that the first quarter will be impacted since in November, there were 10,000 fewer sales.
Added to this the absence of visits for nearly 30 days, the impact is likely to be very strong.
And this from the month of January.
The success of inexpensive cities
Grenoble (Isère), shows an increase, admittedly small, but very symbolic in this period of crisis.
AFP / Jean-Pierre Clatot
Strasbourg, Le Havre, Nîmes or even Grenoble, whose hybrid prices are between 2000 and 3000 euros, are really doing well. Over the last three months, they have shown an increase, admittedly small, but oh so symbolic in this period of crisis , by + 1.7% and 1.8%.
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"Strasbourg benefits from a more favorable economic situation than other cities thanks to its proximity to Germany but also thanks to the presence of officials from European institutions less concerned by social plans," explains Thomas Lefebvre.
As for the other municipalities, we are seeing a catching-up because their prices were among the lowest ”.
Large cities plunge
Paris, Lyon, Bordeaux, Toulouse which have, over 5 years, posted dizzying increases, between 30% and 43%, are now suffering the repercussions of this explosion.
They are notably among those which have fallen the most over the past three months, from -0.6% to -1.6%.
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“Clearly in these big cities the price per m2 has increased much faster than the wages of the inhabitants, insists the scientific director.
As a result, they no longer have the means to find accommodation and go elsewhere ”.
Here again, the decreases are relatively symbolic but significant.
While at the beginning of the year many imagined that the average price in Paris would reach 11,000 euros / m2 at the end of the year, this is ultimately not the case (10,476 euros).
Medium-sized cities, big winners?
Angers, which is due to inaugurate two new tram lines by the end of 2022, will continue to attract people.
LP / Aurélie Ladet
Since the first confinement, the French have rediscovered the charm of cities on a human scale.
"They are doing much better than rural towns because they are better equipped in terms of transport and shops," says Thomas Lefebvre.
And they are much less expensive than large cities while having a pleasant living environment ”.
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The revenge of medium-sized towns: "It is the France of administrative centers and sub-prefectures"
In fact, according to the expert, the evolution of prices in medium-sized cities and therefore of their success will depend a lot on teleworking once the health crisis has passed.
"If a new work organization is put in place over the long term, then cities like Rennes, Angers or Brest will continue to attract people," he believes.