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One last time with Union Jack: Flags in front of the EU headquarters in Brussels
Photo:
DPA
And so the Christmas Eve began with waiting for - Brexit.
Shortly after midnight, a spokesman for the EU Commission recommended that all “Brexit viewers” get some bed rest.
One last, really last, conversation between Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was postponed hour by hour.
At the Brussels EU headquarters in Berlaymont, exhausted negotiators haggled - in world history rather insignificant - over the last disputed tons of mackerel, herring and saithe.
But in the end they actually did it.
Four and a half years after the British EU referendum, three and a half years after the start of negotiations between London and Brussels, von der Leyen went to the microphones on Thursday afternoon at around 3 p.m. and announced: "We finally have an agreement."
It is "fair and balanced" and will "make history".
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Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels on Thursday
Photo: Francisco Seco / AP
Boris Johnson confirmed this shortly afterwards.
In front of four large British flags in London, the Prime Minister solemnly spoke: "We have regained control of our laws and our fate".
Now his country's often difficult relationship with the EU can finally achieve "new stability and security".
On January 1st, Great Britain will finally leave the European Union.
After a one-year transition period, the country will no longer belong to the EU internal market and the customs union - although special regulations will apply to Northern Ireland for the sake of peace.
Brexit is far from history
The British and the remaining 27 EU members literally avoided a hard, contractless break in the last few meters.
Instead, they drew up what is believed to be more than 1,000-page agreements in record time that will regulate future relationships between the largest economic bloc and the fifth largest economy on earth.
Despite its monumental size, it is only a provisional agreement.
It essentially encompasses trade, security, fisheries and scientific cooperation rather than the huge services sector on which the British economy depends.
Quite a few issues remained, some were only poorly whitewashed, some postponed into the future.
Brexit is far from history.
In the end, despite all the saber rattling, both sides shrank from the alternative.
A break without a contract - in the middle of an out of control pandemic - would have cost an additional tens of billions of euros and pounds on both sides of the English Channel, condemned many people to unemployment and poisoned relations between European states for years to come.
Bureaucratic clutter and traffic jams are guaranteed
The emergency plans of the British government, which may even want to mobilize the army to prevent social unrest, speak volumes.
Before he repeatedly flirted with the disaster, Boris Johnson himself warned that a so-called no deal would be tantamount to a "failure of statecraft".
Nobody expects that the agreement that has now been reached will solve all serious problems.
It is true that strategists in Downing Street emphasize that the contract guarantees largely smooth trade "without tariffs and without volume restrictions" for the future.
But that does not mean that there will be no controls at the European Union's new external borders in future.
In order to prevent the UK from becoming a gateway for food, textiles and other goods that do not meet EU standards, trucks, container ships and cargo planes will have to be checked in the future.
Countless customs controls will also be necessary for "duty-free" trade, especially for goods such as cars that are assembled from countless individual parts from all over the world.
Bureaucratic jumble and traffic jams at the freight and ferry ports will therefore be unavoidable, at least for a transitional period.
For Britons and EU-Europeans, it will be both more difficult and frustrating to find a job or an apartment on the other side.
The parliaments are still pending approval
Some things become more complicated, many things more expensive.
Gavin Barwell, the former chief of staff of Johnson's predecessor Theresa May, tweeted on Thursday: "The truth is that this deal is significant obstacles to free trade," but it is definitely better than no deal at all.
Exactly what the biggest pitfalls of the agreement are will only become apparent when lawyers and economists dismantle the agreement into its individual parts in the coming weeks - and thus after the final Brexit.
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Boris Johnson and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on December 9th in Brussels: There it goes to the door
Photo: POOL / REUTERS
For Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen, who made the negotiations on the last few meters their personal affair, until then the aim is to sell the agreement as a political success.
Both still need the approval of their respective parliaments.
Both tried in their statements on Thursday to calm down domestic critics by interpreting the results of the negotiations one-sidedly.
While the House of Commons will probably have a special session on December 30th, the European Parliament will have no choice but to vote retrospectively in January.
MEPs are very unhappy about this, but nobody expects them to let the deal go because of it.
The usual hardliners are already lurking
Boris Johnson, who after a disastrous year and a half as Prime Minister so desperately needs a success, must arm himself for his next inner-party struggle.
The Brexit Orthodox among the Tories, who once brought May down, have already positioned themselves.
The approximately 70 members of the European Research Group want to present the contract to a team of "star lawyers" and punish deviations from the pure Brexit doctrine.
And that they will find what they are looking for can be considered certain.
The hardliners will see it as an attack on Great Britain's sovereignty that their country may not deviate from EU rules on environmental standards, labor rights or state subsidies without risking sanctions.
For them this is suspiciously close to continued "vassalism". Some will also cry out because EU boats are still allowed to pull a large part of the fish from British waters for at least five and a half years.
Significantly, however, French fishermen will also rage on the EU side because their catch quotas will gradually decline over these five and a half years.
Protests and possibly even blockade actions on the English Channel are expected.
Word has not yet got around everywhere that negotiations can only be successful through compromise.
28:11 for Boris Johnson?
A defeat for Johnson in the House of Commons is unlikely, as the opposition Labor Party under its new boss Keir Starmer will not vote against an agreement.
Still, the extent of the Tory revolt will be decisive for Johnson.
Because the number of his internal party opponents grew, also because of his fatal Corona crisis management, most recently weekly.
The head of government will therefore use the coming days according to a tried and tested pattern to stage himself as a tough negotiator who has brought the EU to its knees time and time again.
A government paper leaked to the public on Thursday shows how this should work: According to this, Johnson will claim that he prevailed against Brussels on 28 of the remaining points of contention and only gave in on 11.
The EU will naturally see things differently.
The Brexit dispute over?
Not quite.
There is still too much in the future to argue about - well, it is worth it.
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