Political situation
Written by: Lin Jian
2021-02-17 07:00
Last update date: 2021-02-17 07:00
When it comes to distributing money, some people think it’s populist, why don’t they help those in need in a targeted manner; some people think that this is the most direct measure to help people in need.
Who is who is not a political judgment, it is difficult to have objective standards, but in Kuang Junyu's eyes, this seems to be a "helpless" option.
The Budget will be published next Wednesday (24th). The Democratic Party has earlier put forward a series of proposals, including a national distribution of money (the Democratic Party calls it "backwater") 15,000 yuan.
During his interview with "Hong Kong 01", Kwong Chunyu, a former legislator who initiated the related agency, emphasized that he did not ignore the long-term planning and deep-seated problems of Hong Kong, but believed that the citizens are currently in dire straits and the immediate problems cannot be solved, and that sending money is the most direct aid The public’s approach also believes that no one can make better suggestions.
He lamented that 15,000 yuan was distributed by the whole people, and the total expenditure was about 100 billion yuan. The government's total infrastructure overspending in the past ten years has exceeded this figure: "In fact, it is good for the government to save a little."
Assign money to get cross-party support
Since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia, the local economy has been hit, some industries have been severely affected or even closed due to epidemic prevention measures, and the unemployment rate has risen to 6.6%, a record high in more than 16 years.
In last year’s Budget, the Financial Secretary, Chen Maobo, announced that the nation would distribute 10,000 yuan. In addition, four rounds of epidemic prevention and anti-epidemic funds were launched in response to the epidemic. Various relief measures have cost more than 300 billion yuan.
According to the latest estimates, the announced deficit this year will reach more than 300 billion yuan, and the fiscal reserves will fall to about 800 billion yuan, which is about 13 months of government expenditure, close to the level during the SARS period.
Regarding the distribution of money, Kwong Junyu described it as "distributing wealth to citizens in need in a timely manner when the economy is weakest and all industries are depressed."
He mentioned that he originally initiated a joint signature request on the Internet to "return five thousand five" with the goal of 10,000 people participating, but in the end it was over-fulfilled with 25,000 people participating. I am very grateful for the support of the public.
Kwong Junyu also pointed out that he noticed that all established political parties have mentioned money-related propositions. For example, the Liberal Party suggested using the Octopus platform to distribute 5,000 yuan electronic consumer coupons, the Federation of Trade Unions suggested that 8,000 yuan electronic consumer vouchers be distributed, and the actual political round table recommended 8,000 yuan in cash. .
Therefore, I believe that the distribution of money has sufficient public opinion and party support. The problem is only the amount and form. The Democratic Party insists that 15,000 yuan in cash must be distributed directly.
▼List of proposals from major parties in the 2021 Budget▼
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"How can people talk about the future if they don't have money to eat?"
There are two main criticisms of distributing money: One is that instead of using "lazy man Dafa" to divide the money, why not make good use of resources to invest in the future; the other is that there are 800 billion yuan left in fiscal reserves, which is only enough for the government to 13 Monthly expenditure, have you considered the long-term affordability of the warehouse?
In response, Kwong Junyu pointed out that, first of all, the government's performance in dealing with deep-seated problems in society is not satisfactory, such as the disparity between the rich and the poor, land supply and other issues. Even if it does not send money, the government will not be determined to solve it. Assistance; on the other hand, there is no conflict between distributing money and improving deep-seated problems in society, and can be done at the same time.
Furthermore, Kwong pointed out that the current difficulties of the citizens cannot be solved, and it seems that it is not the right time to talk to them about investing in the future: "The current situation is that the citizens do not have money to eat, they cannot provide enough food and clothing, and the immediate problems have not been solved. Talk about investing in some nihilistic future?"
As for the government's financial affordability, Kwong Chun-yu said that when it is released to the world, there are not many economies with 800 billion yuan in reserves, and many countries are even in debt. Hong Kong is already doing pretty well.
He said that he has never advocated the allocation of government treasury reserves, but he believes that the 800 billion yuan reserve is not too small. Last year, the investment income of the Exchange Fund reached 197.8 billion yuan. Therefore, it is not excessive to allocate about 100 billion yuan to help the public tide over the difficulties .
He also revealed that before resigning as a member of the Legislative Council, he asked the Chief Executive of the HKMA Yu Wei-man. The other party admitted that since he already had last year's experience, he would "in theory" reduce administrative costs if he allocates money this year.
Chen Maobo, Financial Secretary.
(Profile picture)
The Hong Kong Government's investment income of the Exchange Fund reached 197.8 billion last year
Speaking of the Exchange Fund, according to the HKMA figures, Hong Kong’s foreign exchange fund assets in January 2021 were HK$4.018.7 billion.
However, the Exchange Fund cannot be used arbitrarily. For example, there are currently about 2.1 trillion yuan that must be set aside as a monetary base for the linked exchange rate system in Hong Kong.
From the perspective of financial officials, there may be a concern: If the accumulated surplus of the Exchange Fund is used frequently, even if the part of the "monetary base" is not used, it may also release information to international investors that Hong Kong maintains the Hong Kong dollar against attacks. The decline in resilience will affect the linked exchange rate system.
Some people in the community believe that sending money to address the symptoms will not cure the root cause and will weaken the government's financial stability. Kwong Chun-yu reiterated that he has never asked to send out reserves, but believes that the current level of fiscal reserves is still affordable.
He also emphasized that nothing in a society is more important than the "people". The ultimate goal of any financial system stability is to "Annei" so that the people can have a good life. Under this economic and livelihood state, 15,000 Yuan will not make people live well immediately, but for many grassroots or unemployed citizens, it is "life-saving money": "I am not saying that this (currency stability) is not important, but since the people have been devastated by the economy so badly, such as It doesn’t make sense if we don’t support them vigorously. Besides, the warehouse can still afford it.”
Regarding the opinions in the public that the government should reform the tax system and stabilize revenues, Kwong Chun-yu stated that the Democratic Party currently believes that there is no urgency to increase taxes. Moreover, all sectors of society are currently affected by the economic downturn. For example, taxes are increased after the relief of money. Going back, doesn’t it mean that you haven’t helped: "My point of view is that you don’t need to open source for the time being. Keep it at this stage. Later, it will work as usual and it will work because you still have money in your wallet." But he pointed out On the premise of fully respecting the opinions of the people, the government can happily discuss with the people how to open up taxation and come to a "Hong Kong fiscal policy debate." He is open to this.
Last year’s budget announced that the whole people would send 10,000 yuan.
(Profile picture)
Will Treasurer listen to the suggestions of the Democratic Party?
Having said so many reasons for supporting the distribution of money, some people naturally pay attention to a practical problem: everyone knows that the final cause of the rich man’s distribution of money is ultimately a political factor, depending on the reaction of the public opinion and the orientation of major political parties. "If you don't send money, everyone will oppose Taiwan."
However, compared to last year's request for money from almost all parties across factions, this year's call was not so strong.
Moreover, the government has always paid less attention to the opinions of the democrats, especially after the general resignation of the legislative council, the exposure and influence of the democrats have further decreased.
The reporter asked bluntly: "Do you think Treasury will really listen to the suggestions of the Democratic Party?"
Kwong Junyu stated that it is not only the Democratic Party that supports the distribution of money, but the public opinion base behind it. Chen Maobo has sent a letter to reflect the voice of the public, and I hope the treasurer can respond (Note: After the interview, Kwong Junyu received it on February 10. The Office of the Financial Secretary replied by e-mail, stating that his proposal will be considered when formulating the budget).
He estimated that Chen Maobo has already prepared two budgets. One includes the disbursement of money and the other does not. It is only a difference in mind, and there are variables before the official printing.
Kwong Chun-yu received an email reply from the Office of the Financial Secretary on February 10, stating that he would consider his suggestions when formulating the budget.
(Screenshot of Kuang Junyu YouTube clip)
Lament that infrastructure has repeatedly overspend, and the Finance Committee "approves 100 million in one minute"
In contrast, Kwong Junyu raised a more realistic political issue: If the public thinks that the government's public money is used properly, the call for money is naturally not so loud, because everyone knows that public money has better uses.
However, in the past ten years there have been serious overspending in infrastructure projects. For example, the Hong Kong section of the high-speed rail, the West Kowloon Cultural District, and the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge have all experienced overspending of 10 billion yuan. He preliminary estimated that the total amount of infrastructure projects has exceeded 100 billion yuan: "Hong Kong The Zhuhai-Macau Bridge, Liantang Port, high-speed rail... all these add up to more than 100 billion. A sand-centric line has chased (additional allocation) 10 billion." He pointed out that it was also 100 billion, and the government smashed it. With regard to infrastructure projects that are seriously over-expenditure, it is natural for the public to feel that it is better to throw this hundred billion cents into trouble than to "drop off the salt water."
Kwong Chun-yu also pointed out that the government seems to use the Legislative Council as an ATM, and the Finance Committee has entered a state of "express approval": "Since the democrats left the Legislative Council, the public works group has approved 96.9 billion in 15-hour meetings. 100 million, it is difficult to persuade the public that the money will be spent on capital projects and the early allocation of Lantau tomorrow, but there is no money to support the people."
Kwong Junyu is currently on the Ligu YouTube channel, focusing on current affairs comments.
(Screenshot of Kuang Junyu YouTube clip)
After resigning, focus on people’s livelihood work: say the right things and quote the right data
After the democrats resigned in the Legislative Council, Kwong Chun-yu still has the status of Yuen Long District Councillor and writer.
In recent months, Kwong Junyu has become more active on online platforms. The YouTube channel has nearly 200,000 subscribers, mainly commenting on current affairs and attracting supporters of the democratic camp.
In a new role, how does Kwong Junyu comment on the current working mode?
Kwong Chun-yu said that as a social worker, he has more care for the disadvantaged groups. Now that he has left the Legislative Council, he has not put down people's livelihood work, and the work in the district is still busy.
He also hopes that he can comment on current affairs in the form of videos, "say the right things, quote the correct data, and talk about the content that is close to the people's livelihood", so that different age groups, especially the elderly, can supervise the government's governance with him. He believes that since December last year. , The effect is also good.
As for what extent can be achieved in the end, Kwong Chun-yu described as "experimental," but he will maintain a positive attitude, and will continue to work hard for the welfare of Hong Kong citizens regardless of his position. This is also his original intention in politics. I am very grateful for the support of the citizens.
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