The polls show a clear trend for the state elections in Baden-Württemberg.
The gap between the coalition parties is large.
Surveys on the state elections in Baden-Württemberg in 2021 suggest a continuation of the previous coalition.
The Greens are well ahead of the CDU.
According to a recent survey, Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann (Greens) is far more popular than his challenger Susanne Eisenmann * (CDU).
Update from March 12th, 10:40 a.m.:
Even if your survey value drops by one percentage point compared to the previous week, the lead of the Greens in Baden-Württemberg remains large.
According to the current ZDF “Politbarometer”, the Greens around Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann are with 34 percent a total of ten percentage points ahead of the coalition partner CDU (24 percent).
Otherwise, almost everything stays the same, only the FDP rises in the projection of the Elections Research Group to 11 percent (plus one percentage point).
The AfD remains at 11 percent, the SPD at 10 percent and the Left at 3 percent.
Note: However: 41 percent are not yet sure who or whether they want to vote.
There is currently a clear majority in favor of the continuation of the green-black government.
A coalition of the Greens, SPD and FDP is also conceivable.
For the so-called "Lime Coalition" made up of the Greens and the FDP, it would not be enough at the moment.
When asked who the respondents would rather have as Prime Minister: Kretschmann with 70 percent is clearly ahead of Susanne Eisenmann (CDU) with only 13 percent.
Institute |
date |
Green |
CDU |
AfD |
SPD |
FDP |
left |
Others |
ZDF political barometer |
03/11/2021 |
34 |
24 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
3 |
7th |
ZDF political barometer |
05.03.2021 |
35 |
24 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
3 |
7th |
INSA / image |
02/13/2021 |
31 |
28 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
4th |
5 |
Research group elections |
5.2.2021 |
34 |
28 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
3 |
5 |
Infratest dimap |
4.02.2021 |
34 |
27 |
10 |
11 |
9 |
3 |
6th |
Update from March 11, 12.26 p.m.:
When a new state parliament is elected in Baden-Württemberg on Sunday, Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann of the Greens will be
talking
about his third term in office.
He has ruled the southwest since 2011 - initially with the SPD and since 2016 with the CDU as a junior partner.
The CDU around challenger Susanne Eisenmann, currently Minister of Culture in the green-black cabinet, is up to eleven percentage points behind the Greens, according to surveys.
21 parties are campaigning in 70 constituencies for entry into the state parliament.
According to the current polls, the old parties in parliament will also be the new ones.
In 2016, the CDU came in second with 27 percent, behind the Greens with 30.3 percent.
The AfD moved into the state parliament as the strongest opposition faction with 15.1 percent, but lost this status after several exits and exclusions of group members.
At that time, the SPD came up with a historically poor result of 12.7 percent, the FDP achieved 8.3 percent.
Forecasts for the state elections in Baden-Württemberg: Comfortable starting position for the Greens
According to the latest polls, the Greens are currently between 32 and 35 percent, the CDU at 24 to 25 percent.
The SPD lost again compared to 2016 and reached ten percent.
In front of her, the AfD lands with eleven to twelve percent, the liberals come in with ten to eleven percent.
The left would again fail at the five percent hurdle.
According to surveys, smaller parties like the Free Voters cannot exert any greater influence on the outcome of the election.
According to the latest polls, Kretschmann could choose his coalition partner after the election.
The Greens could both form a coalition with the CDU as a junior partner again and form a three-way alliance with the SPD and FDP.
Such an alliance was impossible in 2016 because the Liberals ruled out a coalition with the Greens.
Now, however, only an alliance with the AfD is excluded from all sides.
According to a survey, even green-red is possible.
Survey bang shortly before the state elections in Baden-Württemberg: CDU crashes - Kretschmann in front
Update from March 5th, 6:05 pm:
According to a new survey by the ZDF “Politbarometer”, the Greens around Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann can gain another percentage point a good week before the state election compared to February.
You come to 35 percent.
The CDU around Susanne Eisenmann, on the other hand, loses 4 percentage points and only lands at 24 percent.
It is followed by the AfD with 11 percent like last time.
The SPD and FDP each get 10 percent of the vote, with the FDP adding one percentage point.
The current polls for the state elections in Baden-Württemberg in 2021: Greens are ahead
Update from February 24th, 1.30 p.m.:
On March 14th, a new state parliament will be elected in Baden-Württemberg.
Surveys provide forecasts for the possible outcome on election Sunday beforehand.
The Insa poll of February 13th currently sees the Greens ahead with 31 percent, followed by the CDU (28 percent), SPD and AfD with 11 percent each, closely followed by the FDP (10 percent).
Other survey institutes are currently also showing this tendency.
The research group Wahlen and Infratest dimap sees the Greens at 34 percent - and thus estimate the gap between the Greens and the CDU greater than the current Insa survey.
The polls show a close race between the Social Democrats in Baden-Württemberg and the alternative for Germany.
The polls predict that the left will fail to meet the five percent rule.
First report from January 29, 9:40 a.m .:
Stuttgart - The state government of
Baden-Württemberg
has been unique in Germany since 2011.
Winfried Kretschmann
is the only green man
in a federal state to be the prime minister.
As the father of the country, he has excellent popularity ratings.
According to the
forecasts
for the state election in Baden-Württemberg * in 2021,
an election victory for the Greens is
still not certain.
Who is ahead between the Greens and the CDU fluctuates from survey to survey.
On March 14th there should also be a close race between
AfD *
and
SPD *
.
According to the
polls
for the state election in 2021,
both parties can become
the third strongest force in the state parliament.
Compared to the 2016 election, the AfD has so far been predicted to have greater losses than the SPD.
Entry into the state parliament appears to
be relatively safe
for the
FDP
and,
in turn, to be very insecure
for the party
Die Linke
.
Polls on the state elections in Baden-Württemberg in 2021
Institute |
date |
Green |
CDU |
AfD |
SPD |
FDP |
left |
Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
INSA / image |
01/13/2021 |
30th |
30th |
12th |
12th |
8th |
4th |
4th |
Infratest dimap / SWR |
December 17, 2020 |
35 |
30th |
11 |
10 |
7th |
3 |
4th |
INSA / image |
11/19/2020 |
29 |
31 |
12th |
11 |
7th |
5 |
5 |
Infratest dimap / SWR / Stuttgarter Zeitung |
October 15, 2020 |
34 |
29 |
11 |
11 |
6th |
4th |
5 |
INSA / image |
09/10/2020 |
28 |
31 |
12th |
12th |
7th |
7th |
5 |
State election |
03/13/2016 |
30.3 |
27.0 |
15.1 |
12.7 |
8.3 |
2.9 |
3.7 |
Forecasts point to green-black in Baden-Württemberg again
The situation is both comfortable and complicated for the two ruling parties.
A continuation of the government work would
definitely be possible
for
Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen *
and
CDU *
.
Together, the two parties are heading for
around 60 percent of the vote
- perhaps even significantly more.
Both sides emphasize that there is no automatism for a continuation of the coalition.
But
according to the surveys from Baden-Württemberg
, Winfried Kretschmann and the CDU top candidate
Susanne Eisenmann
are running out of other options.
Possible coalitions according to the polls for the state election in Baden-Württemberg in 2021
For Kretschmann,
green-red-red
would come into
question.
Two things speak against the alliance with the SPD and Die Linke *.
First, the Left Party is a shaky candidate for entry into the state parliament.
The polls before the state elections in Baden-Württemberg showed them to be below the
5 percent threshold
.
Second, Kretschmann has always been considered the green of the more conservative party wing.
He would hardly be the man for a state government of this kind. In the year before the state elections, the FDP * was open to a coalition with the Greens as well.
The liberals could just as easily orient themselves in the other direction.
The CDU can
hope
for
black-red-yellow
.
For this, Susanne Eisenmann needs an SPD that
wants to
get involved in the role of
the Union's
junior partner
.
This is also a very uncertain calculation, because the Social Democrats are looking to cooperation with the Greens.
Neither the CDU nor any of the other parties are seeking a coalition with the AfD.
If you don't yet know which parties your own wishes fit in, you can again ask Wahl-O-Mat about the state elections in Baden-Württemberg * in 2021.
As long as the forecasts for the state elections in Baden-Württemberg in 2021 do not show a clear trend reversal, everything points to a continuation of
green-black
.
The main question that remains open is who will get the most votes and who will ultimately be allowed to nominate the Prime Minister.
(rm) * Merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital editors network