For the state elections in Baden-Württemberg, the forecasts show a clear outcome.
The CDU is experiencing a bitter day in the southwest.
The forecasts and projections for the state elections in Baden-Württemberg are there and clearly show the Greens at the top.
Here you will also find the results from Baden-Württemberg as interactive graphics *.
This ticker is continuously updated.
Live forecasts: figures for the state election in Baden-Württemberg in percent
source |
Time |
Green |
CDU |
AfD |
SPD |
FDP |
left |
Others |
ARD |
8:53 p.m. |
32.4 |
23.6 |
10.1 |
11.6 |
10.4 |
3.5 |
8.4 |
ZDF |
9.01 p.m. |
32.8 |
23.6 |
10.1 |
11.1 |
10.3 |
3.5 |
8.6 |
CDU chairman in the constituency clearly beaten - Greens in front
Update from March 14, 9:02 p.m.:
The weak performance of the CDU in Baden-Württemberg is also evident at the level of the constituencies.
The CDU state chairman and interior minister Thomas Strobl did not manage to win his constituency in Heilbronn.
Once again, Susanne Bay from the Greens won with 30 percent of the vote.
Strobl only got 23 percent.
Update from March 14, 8:22 p.m.:
According to the projections (ARD), the parties currently have the following
shares of the
vote: Greens 32.4%, CDU 23.6%, AfD 10.1%, SPD 11.6% and FDP 10, 4%.
Update from March 14th, 7.41 p.m.:
The first predictions are confirmed, the Greens have left the CDU far behind.
The ARD saw the parties with the following values: Greens 32.3%, CDU 23.5%, AfD 10.5%, SPD 11.1% and FDP 10.7%.
The left is not represented in the state parliament with 3.2%.
Update from March 14th, 7:24 pm:
The CSU has reacted to the clear tendencies in the election
forecasts
.
CSU General Secretary Markus Blume sought responsibility for the sister party's defeats, especially in Berlin.
"The results are also a result of mistakes and misconduct at the federal level," commented Blume.
The following applies to the Corona policy: "The strategy is not wrong, but the implementation is bad." At the same time, he warned of a possible left slide in the federal election in September.
CDU reacts to forecasts: continuation of the coalition desired
Update from March 14, 7:08 p.m.:
CDU country chief Thomas Strobl advertised on election evening for a continuation of the state
coalition
of the Greens and CDU.
A majority of the population is behind the government.
“In the weeks leading up to the election, I couldn't find out that there was a kind of change in mood. Instead, people trust this government, this coalition,” Strobl continued.
The election result with heavy losses for his party was nevertheless disappointing for him.
Update from March 14, 6.45 p.m.:
In addition to the Greens, the FDP also sees itself as a winner of the state election.
According to the first figures, the FDP “achieved the best election result that the FDP has been able to achieve in Baden-Württemberg since 1968,” said top candidate Rülke.
“We are obviously the party that has gained the most in this election.
And in that respect I am extremely satisfied. ”According to forecasts by ARD and ZDF, the FDP was able to increase from 8.3 percent five years ago to 11 to 11.5 percent.
Forecasts already clearly show the election winner in Baden-Württemberg
Update from March 14, 6:13 p.m.:
The Greens have won the state election in Baden-Württemberg.
According to the first forecasts, the party is just below expectations, but has received a clear mandate to form a government.
A continuation of green-black is possible, but a traffic light coalition of the Greens, SPD and FDP is mathematically feasible.
First forecasts from Baden-Württemberg are available
Update from March 14th, 6 p.m .:
The first forecasts for the state election (ARD):
Greens: 31%
CDU 23%
AfD 11.5%
SPD 12%
FDP 11.5%
Left 3.5%
Other: 7.5%
Update from March 14th, 5.30 p.m.:
Voters can cast their vote in the state elections for exactly half an hour.
The forecast from Baden-Württemberg can be published from 6 p.m.
The main questions then are: Can the Greens choose their coalition partner, as the polls before the election suggested?
Predictions for voter turnout in BW: Postal voting was in great demand
Update from March 14th, 4.15 p.m.:
In the state elections in Baden-Württemberg, significantly fewer people went to the polling station due to the high number of postal voters.
After a representative voter turnout in the polling stations for the state elections at 2 p.m., a decrease of 15.9 percentage points compared to 2016 at the same time was recorded (35.5 percent).
State returning officer Cornelia Nesch explained this with the increase in the number of postal voters due to the corona pandemic.
Polls on the state elections in Baden-Württemberg: CDU threatened with losses
Update from March 14th, 2 p.m.:
How see the current ones
Forecasts for the state elections in Baden-Württemberg?
According to surveys, the Greens are likely to be the strongest force, as in 2016.
Your coalition partner CDU is predicted to lose.
It is currently unclear whether the green-black government alliance will continue.
The Greens could form a traffic light coalition with the SPD and FDP.
According to surveys, a new edition of Green-Red is within reach - as is a completely new coalition of the Greens and the FDP.
Kretschmann had left it open with whom he wanted to form a coalition, but the government had to be able to work in a stable and reliable manner.
In Baden-Württemberg, the rush in the polling stations in the morning was restrained in the cold and dingy weather.
Many voters have already cast their votes by postal vote.
Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann (Greens) went to vote together with his wife Gerlinde in the morning in Laiz in the Sigmaringen district.
+
Winfried Kretschmann (Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen), Prime Minister of Baden-Württemberg, and his wife Gerlinde cast their votes in the state elections.
© Marijan Murat / dpa
Forecasts for the state election in Baden-Württemberg: Greens ahead by far
Update from March 14th, 10.16 a.m.:
With Winfried Kretschmann, the Greens in 2011 in Baden-Württemberg for the first time a prime minister.
Since then, the party has governed the state and can hope for a continuation.
Polls last saw the Greens between 32 and 34 percent.
The gap to coalition partner CDU is large, the Union follows with up to eleven percentage points less than the second strongest force.
Behind it, the AfD (eleven to 13 percent), the SPD and the FDP (ten to eleven percent each) deliver a close race.
It should be tight for the left, according to surveys, it clearly misses the five percent hurdle with three to four percent.
Update from March 14, 8:48 a.m.:
It is election day in Baden-Württemberg.
The polling stations have been open for almost an hour.
Can Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann confirm his good poll numbers?
In a few hours there will be clarity.
Forecasts for the state election in Baden-Württemberg: The Greens' lead is melting somewhat
Update from March 13, 9:34 p.m.:
The lead is melting again: Although the Greens are ahead in the latest polls on the state elections in Baden-Württemberg, the ruling party loses
two percentage points
according to an INSA survey commissioned by
Bild
.
Accordingly, the Greens currently come to 32 percent, and still have a comfortable lead over the CDU, which stands at 23 percent, but also loses one point.
The winner is the AfD: It wins two percentage points.
The SPD (from 10 to 11) can also grow slightly.
FDP remains unchanged at 11 percent, while leftists (from 3 to 4) gain slightly.
Other parties currently comprise 6 percent (out of 7).
Update from March 12th, 10:40 a.m.:
Even if your survey value drops by one percentage point compared to the previous week, the lead of the Greens in Baden-Württemberg remains large.
According to the current ZDF “Politbarometer”, the Greens around Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann are with 34 percent a total of ten percentage points ahead of the coalition partner CDU (24 percent).
Otherwise, almost everything stays the same, only the FDP rises in the projection of the Elections Research Group to 11 percent (plus one percentage point).
The AfD remains at 11 percent, the SPD at 10 percent and the Left at 3 percent.
Note: However: 41 percent are not yet sure who or whether they want to vote.
There is currently a clear majority in favor of the continuation of the green-black government.
A coalition of the Greens, SPD and FDP is also conceivable.
For the so-called "Lime Coalition" made up of the Greens and the FDP, it would not be enough at the moment.
When asked who the respondents would rather have as Prime Minister: Kretschmann with 70 percent is clearly ahead of Susanne Eisenmann (CDU) with only 13 percent.
Institute |
date |
Green |
CDU |
AfD |
SPD |
FDP |
left |
Others |
INSA / image |
03/12/2021 |
32 |
23 |
13th |
11 |
11 |
4th |
6th |
ZDF political barometer |
03/11/2021 |
34 |
24 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
3 |
7th |
ZDF political barometer |
05.03.2021 |
35 |
24 |
11 |
10 |
10 |
3 |
7th |
INSA / image |
02/13/2021 |
31 |
28 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
4th |
5 |
Research group elections |
5.2.2021 |
34 |
28 |
11 |
10 |
9 |
3 |
5 |
Infratest dimap |
4.02.2021 |
34 |
27 |
10 |
11 |
9 |
3 |
6th |
Update from March 11, 12.26 p.m.:
When a new state parliament is elected in Baden-Württemberg on Sunday, Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann of the Greens will be
talking
about his third term in office.
He has ruled the southwest since 2011 - initially with the SPD and since 2016 with the CDU as a junior partner.
The CDU around challenger Susanne Eisenmann, currently Minister of Culture in the green-black cabinet, is up to eleven percentage points behind the Greens, according to surveys.
21 parties are campaigning in 70 constituencies for entry into the state parliament.
According to the current polls, the old parties in parliament will also be the new ones.
In 2016, the CDU came in second with 27 percent, behind the Greens with 30.3 percent.
The AfD moved into the state parliament as the strongest opposition faction with 15.1 percent, but lost this status after several exits and exclusions of group members.
At that time, the SPD came up with a historically poor result of 12.7 percent, the FDP achieved 8.3 percent.
Forecasts for the state elections in Baden-Württemberg: Comfortable starting position for the Greens
According to the latest polls, the Greens are currently between 32 and 35 percent, the CDU at 24 to 25 percent.
The SPD lost again compared to 2016 and reached ten percent.
In front of her, the AfD lands with eleven to twelve percent, the liberals come in with ten to eleven percent.
The left would again fail at the five percent hurdle.
According to surveys, smaller parties like the Free Voters cannot exert any greater influence on the outcome of the election.
According to the latest polls, Kretschmann could choose his coalition partner after the election.
The Greens could both form a coalition with the CDU as a junior partner again and form a three-way alliance with the SPD and FDP.
Such an alliance was impossible in 2016 because the Liberals ruled out a coalition with the Greens.
Now, however, only an alliance with the AfD is excluded from all sides.
According to a survey, even green-red is possible.
Survey bang shortly before the state elections in Baden-Württemberg: CDU crashes - Kretschmann in front
Update from March 5th, 6:05 pm:
According to a new survey by the ZDF “Politbarometer”, the Greens around Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann can gain another percentage point a good week before the state elections compared to February.
You come to 35 percent.
The CDU around Susanne Eisenmann, on the other hand, loses 4 percentage points and only lands at 24 percent.
It is followed by the AfD with 11 percent like last time.
The SPD and FDP each get 10 percent of the vote, with the FDP adding one percentage point.
The current polls for the state elections in Baden-Württemberg in 2021: Greens are ahead
Update from February 24th, 1.30 p.m.:
On March 14th, a new state parliament will be elected in Baden-Württemberg.
Surveys provide forecasts for the possible outcome on election Sunday beforehand.
The Insa poll of February 13th currently sees the Greens ahead with 31 percent, followed by the CDU (28 percent), SPD and AfD with 11 percent each, closely followed by the FDP (10 percent).
Other survey institutes are currently also showing this tendency.
The research group Wahlen and Infratest dimap sees the Greens at 34 percent - and thus estimate the gap between the Greens and the CDU greater than the current Insa survey.
The polls show a close race between the Social Democrats in Baden-Württemberg and the alternative for Germany.
The polls predict that the left will fail to meet the five percent rule.
First report from January 29, 9:40 a.m .:
Stuttgart - The state government of
Baden-Württemberg
has been unique in Germany since 2011.
Winfried Kretschmann
is the only green man
in a federal state to be the prime minister.
As the father of the country, he has excellent popularity ratings.
According to the
forecasts
for the state election in Baden-Württemberg * in 2021,
an election victory for the Greens is
still not certain.
Who is ahead between the Greens and the CDU fluctuates from survey to survey.
On March 14th there should also be a close race between
AfD *
and
SPD *
.
According to the
polls
for the state election in 2021,
both parties can become
the third strongest force in the state parliament.
Compared to the 2016 election, the AfD has so far been predicted to have greater losses than the SPD.
Entry into the state parliament appears to
be relatively safe
for the
FDP
and,
in turn, to be very insecure
for the party
Die Linke
.
Surveys on the state elections in Baden-Württemberg in 2021
Institute |
date |
Green |
CDU |
AfD |
SPD |
FDP |
left |
Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
INSA / picture |
01/13/2021 |
30th |
30th |
12th |
12th |
8th |
4th |
4th |
Infratest dimap / SWR |
December 17, 2020 |
35 |
30th |
11 |
10 |
7th |
3 |
4th |
INSA / picture |
11/19/2020 |
29 |
31 |
12th |
11 |
7th |
5 |
5 |
Infratest dimap / SWR / Stuttgarter Zeitung |
October 15, 2020 |
34 |
29 |
11 |
11 |
6th |
4th |
5 |
INSA / picture |
09/10/2020 |
28 |
31 |
12th |
12th |
7th |
7th |
5 |
State election |
03/13/2016 |
30.3 |
27.0 |
15.1 |
12.7 |
8.3 |
2.9 |
3.7 |
Forecasts point to green-black in Baden-Württemberg again
The situation is both comfortable and complicated for the two ruling parties.
A continuation of the government work would
definitely be possible
for
Bündnis 90 / Die Grünen *
and
CDU *
.
Together, the two parties are heading for
around 60 percent of the vote
- perhaps even significantly more.
Both sides emphasize that there is no automatism for a continuation of the coalition.
But
according to the surveys from Baden-Württemberg
, Winfried Kretschmann and the CDU top candidate
Susanne Eisenmann
are running out of other options.
Possible coalitions according to the polls for the state election in Baden-Württemberg in 2021
For Kretschmann,
green-red-red
would come into
question.
Two things speak against the alliance with the SPD and Die Linke *.
First, the Left Party is a shaky candidate for entry into the state parliament.
The polls before the state elections in Baden-Württemberg showed them to be below the
5 percent threshold
.
Second, Kretschmann has always been considered the green of the more conservative party wing.
He would hardly be the man for a state government of this kind. In the year before the state elections, the FDP * was open to a coalition with the Greens as well.
The liberals could just as easily orient themselves in the other direction.
The CDU can
hope
for
black-red-yellow
.
For this, Susanne Eisenmann needs an SPD that
wants to
get involved in the role of
the Union's
junior partner
.
This is also a very uncertain calculation, because the Social Democrats are looking to cooperation with the Greens.
Neither the CDU nor any of the other parties are seeking a coalition with the AfD.
If you don't yet know which parties your own wishes fit in, you can again ask Wahl-O-Mat about the state elections in Baden-Württemberg * in 2021.
As long as the forecasts for the state elections in Baden-Württemberg in 2021 do not show a clear trend reversal, everything points to a continuation of
green-black
.
The main question that remains open is who will get the most votes and who will ultimately be allowed to nominate the Prime Minister.
(rm) * Merkur.de is part of the nationwide Ippen-Digital editors network
List of rubric lists: © dpa / Uli Deck
