Mexico is preparing to hold a crucial midterm elections this Sunday, after campaigns marked by violence and the COVID-19 pandemic.
At least 89 politicians were assassinated in the nine months prior to the elections, in which strict sanitary measures will be in force given the high rate of infections in the country.
The vote will define the second half of the term of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) by determining the composition of the lower house, as well as thousands of positions for state congresses, for governorships and mayors.
A total of 93.5 million Mexicans are called to renew the 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and to vote for more than 21,000 positions, a figure that makes these elections the largest in the history of the country.
Polls predict that the president's party, Morena,
may suffer attrition at the polls
.
He would maintain a majority alongside his parliamentary allies, but it would be greatly reduced.
That would affect the possibility of approving the reforms sought by the president on issues such as changes to the judiciary and a strengthening of state oil and electricity companies, at the cost of renewable energy.
Getty Images
Fifteen of the 32 states also elect a new governor
: Baja California, Baja California Sur, Campeche, Colima, Chihuahua, Guerrero, Michoacán, Nayarit, Nuevo León, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí, Sinaloa, Sonora, Tlaxcala and Zacatecas.
Morena is a favorite in half of those states, including Guerrero, Tlaxcala and Zacatecas, according to polls.
The opposition is a favorite in states where it has traditionally ruled, such as Querétaro and Chihuahua.
While in Nuevo León, the most populous state in the country and bordering Texas, a candidate who has been the main target of memes has a slight advantage in polls.
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Struggle between coalitions
Morena competes in most elections within the Juntos Haremos Historia coalition, made up of partners from the Labor Party (PT) and the Green Party (PVEM).
Its main rival is the unprecedented opposition coalition Goes for Mexico, made up of the right-wing National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI, which ruled Mexico for 70 years in what was described as a “perfect dictatorship”) and the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD).
[Mexico admits that the death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic exceeds 320,000, 60% more than the official figure]
The liberal Citizen Movement (MC) participates alone, favorite for the governorship of Nuevo León and the mayor of Monterrey, of the largest cities in the country;
as well as three new parties: Progressive Social Networks (RSP), Solidarity Meeting (PES) and Force for Mexico.
Again, the violence
This year's campaign was once again
characterized by violence
, as had happened in the 2018 general elections in which López Obrador was elected.
At least 89 politicians have been assassinated since September last year, 35 of whom were candidates, according to the consulting firm Etellekt.
Several candidates were shot at point blank range during campaign events, as happened to Alma Barragán, mayoral candidate for the Citizen Movement.
In addition,
782 attacks against politicians
were registered
, such as kidnappings, threats or beatings, a figure higher than in 2018. That makes it the second bloodiest in the recent history of the country.
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The observer mission of the Organization of American States (OAS) sent to Mexico expressed its “deep concern” about the violence.
This, according to analysts, is usually due to criminal groups wanting to get rid of candidates who may interfere with their activities.
More than 100,000 agents from the National Guard, the Army and the Navy will be deployed to
ensure security during election day
, announced the Ministry of Security and Citizen Protection.
However, President López Obrador has said he is not concerned about what may happen on Sunday.
"Everyone's safety is guaranteed to participate in the elections without fear, that we do not allow ourselves to be intimidated," said the Mexican president during a press conference on June 2.
"The country is at peace, there is governance, there is no risk of instability, we are facing the scourge of violence every day," he said.
Second elections in pandemic
These will be the second elections held by Mexico since the pandemic began in March of last year, after the vote for local congresses and municipalities of Coahuila and Hidalgo, held in October but initially scheduled for June of last year.
The National Electoral Institute (INE) decreed mandatory the use of face masks to vote to minimize the risk of contagion.
Mexico is one of the countries with the
worst balances due to COVID-19.
So far, the official registry accounts for more than 2.6 million people infected and at least 228,000 deaths from coronavirus.
However, the health authorities themselves have admitted for months that there is an undercount of deaths related to the pandemic.
Fear of contagion has contributed to electoral abstention in other recent elections, such as the Catalan (Spain) elections in February, but Mexicans indicate that it is not a great concern, according to a survey by the newspaper El Financiero.
However, the poll indicates that the
vaccination campaign in the country could have a slight effect among voters
: people who have been vaccinated or who have family members already vaccinated say they prefer Morena by 11% more than the opposition coalition of Va por México.
Vaccination against COVID-19 languished for months in Mexico, but ruling party authorities have put their foot on the gas in recent weeks to fully immunize those over 60 and teachers.
Those over 50 are already getting their first dose.
A nurse gives the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine to a medical worker at the 81st Infantry Battalion facility, December 2020 in Mexico City, Mexico Manuel Velasquez / Getty Images
With information from EFE.