Can a virus be created in a laboratory?
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(CNN) -
The US intelligence agencies examining a treasure trove of genetic data from the laboratory of Wuhan, in China, which could be key to discovering the origins of the coronavirus, as they can decipher them
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This gigantic catalog of information contains the genetic blueprints extracted from samples of the virus studied in the Wuhan, China laboratory, which some officials believe may have been the origin of the covid-19 outbreak, several people familiar with the matter told CNN. .
The growing outbreak of the delta variant in China reaches Wuhan, the original epicenter of the pandemic, as the country places massive restrictions on travel
It is not clear how or when US intelligence agencies accessed the information, but the machines involved in creating and processing this type of virus genetic data are often connected to external cloud-based servers, leaving open the possibility that they were the target of a hack, according to the sources.
However, turning this mountain of raw data into usable information - which is just one part of a 90-day effort by the intelligence community to uncover the origins of the pandemic - presents a number of challenges, including harnessing enough computing power to process it all.
To do this, intelligence agencies rely on the supercomputers of the Department of Energy's National Laboratories, a set of 17 elite government research institutions.
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Processing difficulties
There is also a human resources problem.
Intelligence agencies not only need government scientists trained enough to interpret complex genetic sequencing data and have proper security clearance, but they also need to speak Mandarin, as the information is written in Chinese with a specialized vocabulary.
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"Obviously, there are scientists who have (security) clearance," a source familiar with intelligence agencies told CNN.
"But are the Mandarin speakers authorized? It's a very small group. And not just any scientist, but those who specialize in biology. So you can see how this quickly becomes difficult."
Officials conducting the 90-day review hope this information will help answer the question of how the virus jumped from animals to humans.
Unraveling that mystery is essential to ultimately determining whether COVID-19 leaked from the lab or was transmitted to humans from animals in the wild, multiple sources told CNN.
The focus on 22,000 coronavirus samples
Researchers, both inside and outside the government, have long searched the genetic data of 22,000 samples of the virus that were being studied at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV).
That data was removed from the internet by Chinese officials in September 2019, and China has since refused to release this and other raw data on early coronavirus cases to the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United States.
The question for the researchers is whether the WIV or other labs in China possessed virus samples or other contextual information that could help them trace the evolutionary history of the coronavirus.
The WHO asks China for transparency about the origin of covid 0:45
Two scientists studying coronaviruses told CNN they are skeptical that there is any genetic data in the 22,000-sample stretch or in any other WIV database that scientists are not already aware of.
"Basically, the WIV was talking (in a 2020 research article published in Nature), of all the sequences that they had up to a certain moment; this is what most virological scientists believe, that is more or less what they had" said Dr. Robert Garry, a virologist at Tulane University School of Medicine.
A source familiar with the US investigation declined to confirm or deny that any of the data relating to those 22,000 samples is among what US intelligence agencies are currently analyzing.
There is no "corpus delicti"
Knowledgeable sources of the research say that completing that missing genetic link will not be enough to definitively demonstrate whether the virus originated in the Wuhan laboratory or arose naturally.
Officials will still have to gather other contextual clues to determine the true origins of the pandemic.
But it is a critical piece of the puzzle that the Joe Biden administration has prioritized.
"The most valuable technical data in this context are genetic sequences, database entries, and contextual information about where the samples come from and when and the context in which they were acquired, information that people would use to locate them. in a narrative of the origins of SARS, covid-19, "a source familiar with the investigation told CNN.
Chinese virologist Shi Zhengli inside the Wuhan Institute of Virology on February 23, 2017. (Credit: JOHANNES EISELE / AFP via Getty Images)
For now, senior intelligence officials keep saying that they are truly torn between the two prevailing theories about the origins of the pandemic, or some combination of both scenarios.
CNN reported last month that senior officials in the Biden administration overseeing the 90-day review now believe that the theory that the virus accidentally escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan is at least as credible as the possibility that it arose from natural form in nature;
a dramatic change from a year ago, when Democrats publicly downplayed the so-called lab leak theory.
Multiple sources told CNN that in the absence of an unexpected amount of new information, officials do not expect to uncover a "body of crime" - such as intercepted communications, for example - that offers definitive proof for either theory.
The 90-day momentum of the Joe Biden administration is built on the expectation that science, not intelligence, will be the key.
"Knowledge gaps"
Intelligence officials are tasked with addressing several "scientific knowledge gaps" about the evolution of the virus, according to the compilation guide governing the 90-day push, distributed to more than a dozen agencies on June 11 by the Bureau. from the Director of National Intelligence and obtained by CNN.
The memo directs the intelligence community to "expand its collection" and consider the data it already has to identify both the initial coronavirus host and any species it may have passed through when adapting to humans, or find as "any virus. parent and / or virus that can serve as a backbone for genetic engineering purposes ".
However, former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe told CNN that the US intelligence community already had enough information on the issue of the origins of COVID-19.
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"Obviously, the more the merrier. But we've had extraordinary information on this topic for many months, far more than it has been declassified. Pretending we didn't have it is political theater and a classic example of a politician trying to buy time by using to the intelligence agencies as a scapegoat, "he told CNN in a statement.
Delve into the science
That's where the genomic data from the Wuhan lab could come in.
The genetic code of a certain virus is the signature that allows scientists to differentiate between the delta and beta variants of the coronavirus, for example.
It can also offer clues to how the virus has adapted or mutated over time, even if it shows signs of human manipulation, a kind of genetic history.
Many scientists still believe that the most likely hypothesis is that the virus jumped from animals to humans naturally.
However, despite tests conducted on thousands of animals, researchers have yet to identify the intermediate host through which the virus adapted to humans.
However, some researchers, intelligence officials and Republican legislators believe that WIV researchers could have genetically altered a virus in the laboratory, using a controversial type of research known as "gain of function" that could have infected the virus. researchers who later spread it in their community.
The Wuhan Institute of Virology is affiliated with the Chinese Academy of Sciences and is controlled by the central government.
It is also plausible that the initial infection occurred naturally outside the laboratory, perhaps while a scientist was collecting a sample from an animal in the wild, and that that scientist unknowingly spread the virus when he returned to the laboratory with the samples, multiple sources explained. familiar with intelligence.
"If it was the latter, most likely it was brought into the lab to study because someone got sick. Which means there were untold numbers of other people who were already sick," said the source familiar with the research.
Knowing exactly which viruses the WIV researchers were working with could provide important evidence for either of these theories.
It's one of the reasons why researchers in the US government and elsewhere have been very focused on the database that was pulled from the internet in 2019.
No definitive evidence
But it may not prove anything definitively, say sources familiar with intelligence.
Even if scientists in the intelligence community are able to use the lab data to compile a complete genetic history showing how the virus mutated, they may not have enough information about how it was handled by the Chinese lab to determine with a high level of confidence that leaked.
"Despite having such a complete history of variants, [officials] may lack the contextual information to give it a narrative sense," explained the source familiar with the investigation.
"Even a complete sequence history is difficult to obtain. And it doesn't really tell us anything about the origins of the pandemic itself without the context," this person added.
The US intelligence community examines information that could help answer the question of how the virus jumped from animals to humans
Some Republicans in the US Congress have jumped into uncertainty with their own report claiming that "the preponderance of the evidence suggests" that the coronavirus was "accidentally" released from a Wuhan lab in 2019, a claim That goes well beyond the current intelligence community's view on the matter.
90 days ... and then what?
By the end of Biden's 90 days, the intelligence community may not have reached what is known as a "high confidence" assessment as to the origins of the pandemic.
Government officials have previously suggested to CNN that a second review may be ordered at the end of the 90 days.
A bipartisan group of lawmakers from the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations and Intelligence Committees sent a letter earlier this week urging the administration to continue to prioritize the search until that search can be issued. trial in order to prevent future pandemics.
But lawmakers also focused on an issue related to intelligence officials investigating the origins of the pandemic: China's "efforts to conceal the severity and scope of the SARS-CoV-2 virus outbreak that caused the COVID-19 pandemic. 19 ".
"We also believe that the investigation should address efforts by the PRC (People's Republic of China) to impede international investigations into the origins of SARS-CoV-2, and other actions that the PRC authorities have taken to obscure the nature of the virus. and its transmission, "said lawmakers.
Republican House lawmakers, for their part, have clung to the theory that the virus escaped from a laboratory.
In a report released Monday by Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas, Republican Party lawmakers have claimed that "the preponderance of the evidence suggests" that the coronavirus was "accidentally" released from a laboratory in Wuhan in 2019.
Intelligence officials say it is still too early to tell.
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