Christina Goldbaum
08/12/2021 15:40
Clarín.com
The New York Times International Weekly
Updated 08/12/2021 3:40 PM
KABUL, Afghanistan - Since international troops began withdrawing from Afghanistan in May, the Taliban have waged an extensive military campaign, taking control of much of the country's rural areas.
However, for months, the
insurgents
failed to take the main cities - until now.
In the past six days, insurgents have invaded nine provincial capitals across the country, most of them clustered in the north, in a
major escalation of their military offensive
and a devastating setback for the Afghan government.
Militiamen in an Afghan National Army van on the outskirts of Mazar-i-Sharif, Afghanistan.
Photo Jim Huylebroek / The New York Times.
Quick victories by the Taliban have put enormous pressure on Afghan political leaders and the country's embattled security forces, which have been
overwhelmed
by the relentless advance of the insurgents.
The collapse of cities, especially in northern Afghanistan - which was once the heart of resistance to the Taliban's rise to power in 1996 - has fueled fears that insurgents may surround the country's capital. Kabul, in a complete military takeover.
Now, the Afghan government must decide whether to rebuild its forces around the territory it maintains - including Kabul - or to try to retake its fallen cities.
This is what we know and the questions that will have to be answered in the coming days.
Members of the Taliban's elite "Red Unit" wear high-end white sneakers with green and yellow trim.
Photo Jim Huylebroek / The New York Times.
What areas do the Taliban now control?
Since the Taliban began their military offensive in May, insurgents have captured more than half of Afghanistan's 400 districts, according to some assessments.
In recent weeks, after razing much of the Afghan countryside, insurgents began besieging several provincial capitals simultaneously for the first time in 20 years of war.
So, on Friday, those front lines were broken:
The Taliban captured Zaranj, a provincial capital near the Iranian border, after encountering
little resistance
from Afghan security forces upon entering the city.
A day later, they captured another capital, Sheberghan, the northern stronghold of the warlord, Marshal
Abdul Rashid Dostum
, whose militia forces were outmatched.
On Sunday, Taliban forces seized three other northern capitals.
They took
Taloqan
, the capital of the province of Takhar, and Sar-e-Pul, the capital of the province of the same name.
They also took
Kunduz,
the largest city captured to date and a vital commercial center that the group has long coveted as a strategic and symbolic prize.
On Monday, the Taliban continued their relentless campaign, taking Aybak, the capital of Samangan province, located on the main highway connecting Kabul with the northern provinces of Afghanistan.
On Tuesday, the insurgents seized three other capitals:
The city of Farah, in the western province of the same name;
Pul-e-Khumri, the capital of the northern province of Baghlan;
and Faizabad, the capital of the remote and rugged Badakhshan province in the far northeast of the country.
The simultaneous sieges of provincial centers overwhelmed Afghan security forces and dangerously depleted military resources.
The resupply lines of the government forces are cut off.
Cities and districts that are still under government control are even more isolated.
And the Afghan security forces are exhausted from the brutal offensive.
How is the Afghan government responding?
In the midst of all the defeat, the administration of President Ashraf Ghani refused to acknowledge the fall in capital.
Instead, the Afghan Defense Ministry continued to promote its official arguments emphasizing the deaths of the Taliban and the strength of the Afghan security forces.
The country's acting Finance Minister, Khalid Payenda, resigned and left the country as the security situation deteriorated.
Although he said on Facebook that he was leaving for
family reasons
, his departure was a signal to many Afghans that their political leaders had practically accepted the complete takeover of power by the Taliban.
The Afghan government's strategy to slow the Taliban's advance is in line with long-standing US recommendations that Afghans consolidate their remaining forces around key roads, cities and border crossings, and abandon most districts. already taken over by the Taliban, according to US and UN diplomats.
But it's unclear how that plan addresses the capture of the now nine provincial capitals across the country - or explains the
depletion
of the country's air force and commandos.
For months, those elite forces have been the backbone of the country's defense against the Taliban.
As insurgents besieged cities, they have moved from one
vulnerable position to
another to drive the Taliban out of urban centers, keep the territory under government control, and take back some districts from the Taliban.
But that strategy is only a stopgap measure.
There are simply not enough troops to defend the country's 34 provincial capitals and 400 districts, and after months of uninterrupted fighting, those forces have been battered.
As of Tuesday night, the Afghan security forces had not carried out any serious operations to retake the captured capitals.
In Kunduz, where military leaders had promised to launch an operation to
recapture
the strategic center, Taliban forces on Wednesday captured Kunduz airport, the last stronghold of government control on the outskirts of the city.
In an attempt to rally government troops and militias, Ghani flew to Mazar-e-Sharif, the capital of the northern province of Balkh and the only major city in the north still under government control.
If the insurgents succeed in capturing the city, it would represent the near total collapse of northern Afghanistan for the Taliban.
Could the Taliban take full military control?
The victories of the Taliban in northern Afghanistan, in particular, have stoked fears that insurgents may engulf the country's capital, Kabul, opening up the possibility of a full military takeover.
Following the emergence of the Taliban in the 1990s, the southern and predominantly ethnic Pashtun insurgency faced fierce resistance from northern militia groups, known as the Northern Alliance.
Even when the Taliban
seized
control of Kabul in 1996, the
Northern Alliance
deprived the group of a complete takeover of power during its five years of rule.
But now, with the capture of seven northern cities
in just five days
, experts warn that if the insurgents are able to conquer the north - crushing the country's best hope of a grassroots resistance strong enough to meet the Taliban - the country could fall into their hands completely.
"The north is strategic for the Taliban, because they believe that if they can capture these non-Pashtun areas," said Ramish Salemi, a political analyst in Kabul, "then they can easily take control of the south and the capital Kabul."
Will the Taliban's advance affect the US military withdrawal?
The US military presence in Afghanistan is slated for the end of the month, and the Taliban's recent string of military victories has not prompted President
Joe Biden
to reevaluate that plan, according to officials.
Yet the escalation of violence is a bind for Biden, who has shifted between America's withdrawal from the war and insistence that it is not
abandoning
Afghanistan to the Taliban.
The US withdrawal has already been
95% complete,
according to officials.
However, in the past three weeks, as the Taliban have advanced their front lines into urban areas, the US military has carried out some airstrikes in Afghanistan to try to buy time for Afghan security forces to rally. a defense around the main besieged cities.
Administration officials say the Pentagon will likely ask the president for authorization to carry out more airstrikes in the coming months, in case the key southern city of Kandahar or the country's capital Kabul appear
on the verge of falling.
However, on Sunday, when three northern cities fell to the insurgents, the United States' response was tepid.
He sent a clear message to the Afghan leaders:
In no uncertain terms, America's 20-year war in Afghanistan is over, and Afghan forces will have to retake cities on their own, or leave them to the Taliban forever.
Najim Fahim, Fatima Faizi and Thomas Gibbons-Neff contributed information from Kabul.
c.2021 The New York Times Company
Look also
Afghanistan: they propose to the Taliban a distribution of power to stop the violence
The military facing the Taliban are broken and battered