Maria Laura Avignolo
08/13/2021 12:35 PM
Clarín.com
World
Updated 08/13/2021 12:37 PM
The Taliban are advancing vertiginously in Afghanistan, with government soldiers
surrendering their weapons en masse
, allegations of massacres and rapes and abductions of young girls as sex slaves of their militants in the provinces they recover.
In the last 24 hours has fallen Kandahar,
the spiritual city of the fundamentalists
and second in the country, Herat, on the border with Iran and Lashkar Gah, the capital of Helmand province, where the British lost their men to try to build a nation.
The hasty departure of US and NATO forces
has generated this chaos
and an offensive by the fundamentalists, which no one expected in the West.
Taliban in Kandahar.
Photo: AFP
A new Saigon in sight.
At least 3,000 US soldiers will return to Afghanistan in the next few hours to help escape diplomats and administrative personnel and relatives of Afghan military interpreters, who have been trapped in Kabul.
The British are added with 600 soldiers, led by their special forces, who will lead the evacuation.
All have moved to the Kabul airport, which is controlled by
Turkish contractors,
fearing that the fall of Kabul is imminent.
In Britain, the military
criticizes the humiliating abandonment of Afghanistan
and its people by its government and NATO, the end of aid and warns about the massacres and bloody revenge of the Taliban.
France and Germany
have stopped the deportations of Afghans due
to the situation in the country on the recommendation of the EU.
America loses civil wars
The
Dr. Emilio Viano
is a
professor at American University and leader in the Department of Justice, Law and Society.
A specialist in Afghanistan and the last wars that the United States has carried out.
Compare them historically
and find their common denominators.
An expert in victimology and the rights of victims, Professor Viano has been internationally recognized for his contribution to justice and human rights and responses to organized transnational crimes and the societies in which they occur as president of the
international society of Criminology.
This was his telephone dialogue with
Clarín
when the Taliban brutally continued their offensive and no one stopped them in Afghanistan.
- Was the decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan a mistake? How do you explain this decision by the Biden administration?
- Clearly what has happened is that the United States has realized that they cannot win this war.
It is ironic if we think that the United States won World War II and became a global power.
But if we analyze carefully, since 1945 the United States has not won any other war.
-Why?
-Because they are wars different from the great international conflicts.
In Vietnam for example, now in Afghanistan, in Iraq itself, in other parts of the world, they are civil wars.
They are wars between groups from the same country, where there are alliances, where there are interests, where there is distribution of national wealth.
It is very difficult for foreign forces to win these wars.
It clearly happened with Afghanistan, when the US troops were sent, after the attack of September 11, 2001. Nothing was known about Afghanistan.
The culture, the language, the alliances, the warlords are not known.
"It is the United States that is marching onto a battlefield, with its flags, its insignia and its identification, while the Taliban hide among the population."
Emilio VianoProfessor at the American University
On the contrary, the situation was changed for a worse one.
For example, before there was not much culture of the poppy, of drug trafficking from Afghanistan.
After the North American and NATO intervention, Afghanistan has become one of the most important exporters of opium for Europe and the rest of the world.
This has naturally brought great wealth for those who control this crop.
So he continues to create different power equations.
It is very interesting to think in this sense.
With the exception of the 1991 Gulf War, the withdrawals in Afghanistan and also in Iraq reflect the difficulties of the United States in guerrilla conflicts.
Ignorance of society
-Is the withdrawal of Western troops seen as a defeat for NATO in Asia?
-These are interventions by Western countries, which do not know much about the terrain.
They do not know much about the culture, the alliances, what constitutes the society in which they are entering.
A paradox.
For example, the United States, in most conflicts after World War II - in which it became a superpower - stopped winning wars, with the exception of the 1991 Gulf War. Because the nature of the conflicts has changed .
Most are civilians, with terrorist groups in front of them, different small groups involved and many ramifications.
And it's ironic because this is why the United States won the war for independence.
"Clearly the Taliban have the training, they have the weapons, they have the money from drug trafficking and they also now control the customs posts with many of the neighboring countries."
Emilio VianoProfessor at the American University
It's very ironic.
The British fought the insurgents here (in the US), just as the Americans now fought the Taliban in Afghanistan.
That is to say, the British marched in formation to face an open enemy, on a battlefield.
The Americans, who did not have many weapons or much training or much intelligence, fought behind walls, trees, forests, as a guerrilla.
And that's why they won.
Because the British could not conform to that kind of combat.
The same is now happening in Afghanistan.
It is the United States that marches towards a battlefield, with its flags, its insignia and its identification while the Taliban hide among the population.
They go to Pakistan when they need to take refuge there, they return when it suits them.
So it is not possible to win, because there is naturally a lot of support.
The popularity of the Taliban
-Is the Taliban popular?
-The Taliban in Afghanistan now have the support of many people, who for religious reasons, history, kinship, profit, drug cultivation, trade, like the idea that the Taliban are returning.
They want more severity in the application of Islamic law.
They do not want women to leave home and become lawyers, doctors, students and elite people.
Taliban surrounded by locals, in Kandahar.
Photo: AFP
It is worth saying that there is internal support as well, particularly from the Pashtuns, who are the most important ethnic tribal group in Afghanistan.
So it is a very complex situation, starting with not knowing their language and not knowing what they are talking about, their culture, their way of life.
It is very difficult for the Western forces to win.
They enter a complete vacuum of knowledge, planning and understanding of what is happening in your presence.
Let whatever happens
- Do you think that Afghanistan is definitely heading towards civil war? Should the West come back, can it abandon the bombings, can it abandon the government in Kabul?
-I think there is no other way out than to let whatever happens.
Clearly the Taliban have the training, they have the weapons, they have the money from drug trafficking and they also now control the customs posts with many of the neighboring countries.
All those trucks that want to get in are going to pay the Taliban.
Import taxes are the ones that give them the most money, the most possibility to buy weapons for the Taliban outpost.
-Do you have any kind of resistance?
There will naturally be places where, for tribal reasons, there will be resistance to them.
But in general, I think that means that they are going to reconquer Afghanistan, to prevail again and we will have to see what happens in the near future.
Eventually they will maybe make changes.
But, for a certain time, there will be a very difficult situation for the civilian population, bloody, of revenge, of massacres.
And most of all, migration to countries where the Taliban can flee.
And that also presents difficulties for the European Union, because many of them can go to Turkey.
Danger for Europe
-And what will Turkey do?
-Turkey has already said that they are not willing to welcome this immigration from Afghanistan.
They could again use thousands and thousands of refugees as a weapon against the European Union, to obtain advantages from the Union.
That it does not impose all its rules, particularly with regard to freedom of expression, human rights, rights to fair and clean elections, so as not to allow these refugees to leave for Greece, Italy and the European Union.
So I see that there is a very difficult situation also for Europe, in the sense that there will be hundreds of thousands of Afghans who will try to flee to 6 countries around Afghanistan.
But the favorites are those that come to Turkey and from there, to Europe.
-China. Iran, Pakistan and somehow India have filled the power vacuum left by NATO's withdrawal. China already met with the Taliban's number two last week. What effect is this withdrawal of Westerners going to have on regional geopolitics?
-We already know that there are different interests in the control of Afghanistan.
By 1990/91 it was in the interest of the Soviet Union, which had a common border with Afghanistan.
And that he invaded the country - or tried to control it - since the end of World War II and had to eventually leave in 1991. There, too, the irony.
The fact that we, the United States and many European countries and also China, armed, trained and helped to form the Mujahideen, who fought against the Soviets and forced them to leave.
They were the Taliban of the 70s, 80s, 90s, among them Osama Bin Laden.
So the history of Afghanistan is very long.
"It is something very complex that there are six countries on the border with Afghanistan, including Iran, which may also be very happy to see this happen."
Emilio VianoProfessor at the American University
All those attempts at intervention by foreign powers, foreign money, foreign training, which create guerrilla groups, which then cause enormous problems.
The Mujahideen expelled the Soviet Union but also created the Islamic State.
They gave Osama Bin Laden the possibility to plan the attacks against the United States.
So it is a historical cycle that continues.
-And China?
China is naturally very interested, because it has a very small border corridor with Afghanistan.
We know that China is persecuting Uighur Islamists in XinJiang province.
He is afraid that there could perhaps be an alliance between the Uighurs and the Taliban, to oppose the concentration camps and the persecution of the majority of Chinese against the Uighurs.
They want to intervene and protect themselves in this way.
It is something very complex that there are 6 countries on the border with Afghanistan, including Iran, which may also be very happy to see this happen.
Because it is a symbol of the American impotence in facing internal conflicts.
And they are going to support them and other countries in the region.
An impossible negotiation?
-Is there a possibility of negotiation with the Taliban? Why is everyone criticizing the Doha agreement with them?
-There were negotiations between the United States directly with the Taliban and Afghanistan as a country with the Taliban.
There were promises, there were agreements, there was a signature.
But the Taliban clearly had no intention of complying with what the agreements required them to do.
They have clearly seen an open highway for them and they are traveling at high speed to conquer more and more territory, more and more regional capitals.
In the last 3 months they have conquered 125 district centers in Afghanistan.
They are marching.
There was an attack on the residence of the Minister of Defense, attacked by the Taliban in Kabul, in the capital.
And it lasted for hours, which gives us a very clear idea of how disorganized the response of the Ghani government is to this kind of confrontation.
So there were negotiations, there were agreements but they don't mean anything.
-Do you think that this return of the Taliban to Afghanistan is a threat to global security?
-It is a threat in the sense of migration, for people who want to flee for different reasons, save their lives from Afghanistan under the Taliban and who could try to go to Europe, which is the best destination for them.
That could create another crisis between Turkey, Greece, Italy, the European Union and also Turkey, trying to make a profit by not allowing Afghans to leave for Europe.
It could create an internal crisis in the EU because we know that there are very strong disagreements in that regard.
There are governments in Hungary, Slovenia, Poland and others, which do not observe all the EU norms when it comes to human rights, migrants, the rule of law.
Global impact
-Do the Chinese feel you are a threat?
-On the other hand, China is clearly concerned that this could easily be transferred to its territory, in the province of XinJiang, where they are trying to completely destroy the Islamic presence, be it religion, culture, customs.
They want to force the Islamist residents there to adapt to the prevailing culture in China, to become Chinese.
This could be a threat to them.
There is a possible conflagration one day with Iran, where they have a common border.
Iran is already supporting the Taliban, which means that the Taliban also support them, in a conflict with the United States or with Israel.
There are many possible ramifications here, which are concerning with the potential for very strong violence in this region.
- What happens in Afghanistan is going to have repercussions in Mali, Nigeria and Mozambique, where there are already extremist groups on the ground?
-That was one of the consequences of the Iraq war.
The fact that the United States was able to minimize - in a sense - the Islamic State in this region.
I think it was one of his military successes.
But what that caused was the dispersal of the Islamic State to other more favorable places, more possible for them, more defenseless.
We see it naturally in what happened to Somalia, in central Africa, in northern Nigeria and Mozambique in particular.
The conflict can move to where there is less resistance, where the military and political capacity for effective combat against the guerrillas does not exist. We see it before transforming itself more and more into a screen change, a foreign intervention in its own territories. In North Africa, in the Central African Republic, there is some American intervention with troops, training, advisory, intelligence. But that could now spill over from this area of Asia, from Afghanistan, across the sea, to Somalia, Eritrea, Kenya and also Mozambique. And cause an increase in this pressure from the Islamist guerrillas of the Islamic State in the Maghreb, in other regions of Africa, which is going to create a very difficult situation again for the United States and for the European countries, which were colonial powers, particularly France.
Paris, correspondent
ap
Look also
Could the Taliban take control of Afghanistan?
This is what we know
Kidnappings, beheadings and corpses in the street: the hell of the Taliban offensive in Afghanistan