Walter schmidt
08/22/2021 7:23 PM
Clarín.com
Opinion
Updated 08/22/2021 7:23 PM
Cristina Kirchner and Mauricio Macri meet
again these days in a new electoral contest, like those sporting rivals who starred in endless duels and who, because they are in the antipodes, are box office holders and always attract the crowds. Just as in 2018 the macrismo led by Jaime Durán Barba believed that the only salvation for Macri's re-election in the midst of an economic crisis was to raise Cristina up as the enemy to be defeated, today Kirchnerism believes that Macri's leading role is The only way for the Frente de Todos to overcome the economic debacle and win the elections.
She put the campaign on her shoulder, interfering in the assembly of candidates, especially in the province of Buenos Aires, but handing over a good part of the lists to the Peronist governors in the rest of the country because
her blind objective today is to win
. Obviously, it also sets the guidelines in the campaign, first based on building a kind of happy country based on vaccination and facing the economic crisis worsened during his government (30% increase in poverty, unemployment, and inflation which approaches the one left by Cambiemos)
as if it were all the fault of Macri's inheritance.
The former president has recently become involved in the campaign, sharing an activity with María Eugenia Vidal in the City and another with Diego Santilli in the province of Buenos Aires, where the positive image of Macri, according to their own, is barely 15 points.
But the same sum.
However, the political scene finds Cristina and Macri in
two very different situations
.
The vice president is not only part of the government but also
holds power
in the governing coalition whose main shareholders are the President and Sergio Massa.
Macri, on the other hand,
has seen his dominance diminish
in a coalition like Together for Change that has expanded and that, based on the mismanagement of the Casa Rosada, fuels his goal of returning to power in 2023.
There are many differences between Cristina and Macri, especially political, but in particular one, which is
the one that today reveals the Kirchner leader: the legacy
.
In the
Succession
series
, the main character Logan Roy is an American tycoon owner of an empire and father of four children.
At his age, he has every intention of retiring from the management of his emporium but cannot, because neither of his parents is qualified to take the reins and maintain success.
Each has some of Logan's leadership qualities, but none possesses them fully.
Cristina's aspiration
that Axel Kicillof succeeds Alberto Fernández in 2023 and that Máximo Kirchner occupies the governorship has
circulated for a long time in the field of the thread promoted by politicians, operators and businessmen
.
The level of management in the Nation supports the idea debated in the Instituto Patria that reelection is not in the plans.
But
there is no Kicillof or Máximo 2023 without an acceptable administration from Fernández.
And that is what worries Cristina.
Axel Kicillof and Máximo Kirchner in Moreno
At this point, the elections will mark the middle of the President's term. The two years that remain should be something more than optimal so that it does not affect the continuity of Kirchnerism in power. Hence the versions about the changes of names and policies in the cabinet sound inevitable.
Alberto's management would be affecting Cristina's project
, they understand at the top of the Frente de Todos.
On the contrary, Macri is a witness, although he has not looked for it, of how Horacio Rodríguez Larreta incarnates himself as his successor in the PRO and part of that consolidation
will depend on the result in the PASO
de Juntos por el Cambio. The name of Larreta, in an eventual presidential intern in 2023, is joined by María Eugenia Vidal, Patricia Bullrich, Martín Lousteau and Facundo Manes himself.
But if the mayor of Buenos Aires manages that his candidates clearly prevail in the City with Vidal, and in the province with Santilli in the face of the "white hope" of radicalism, Facundo Manes, he will have taken a great first step to consolidate himself as the rival to win in the JxC internal.
The second step will be to
cut
in the election in the province of Buenos Aires the difference of
14.2 points
with which Kicillof beat Vidal in 2019. If it is less than two digits, Larreta's task will be accomplished.
If it is the same or greater, it will be one more candidate.
The present hits Cristina's plan.
Its economic model, without resources, is not viable.
Only the public debt since Alberto Fernández took office in December 2019
increased by 20 billion dollars
.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has just forecast a 6.1% growth in Argentina's economy for this year, but factors that limit the recovery after a 9.9% drop in GDP in 2020 persist. The report estimates that
the country will only regain pre-pandemic levels of economic activity in 2026
. In other words, in 4 or 5 years we could be back to February 2020, when we were already
bad
.
For this reason, it was not by chance that Cristina said in a ceremony last week that "the life we want", and mentioned a series of basic questions such as having a job, a salary that reaches, enjoying with our children or traveling, "requires no of one but of many periods of government ”. Ergo, he
admitted that it will take many years to stabilize the country on basic issues.
Such is the economic crisis that, as never before, is perceived in football in the region. A recent
Clarín
report
highlights how Brazil has detached itself from Argentina and today handles impossible budgets for local teams. It is not by chance that there are no Argentine teams in the final stages of the Copa Libertadores de América and the Copa Sudamericana. As an example,
Flamengo's budget almost doubles that of the
most powerful
Argentine teams
. Some 36 million dollars enter Fla's coffers from sponsors against River or Boca that scratch the 20 million but at the official dollar, which means even less to them.
But the problem is not one of the exchange rate, it is political.
Mercado Libre
, whose co-founder Marcos Galperín moved to Uruguay fed up with Argentina,
closed a few months ago a contract to be the
sponsor of Flamengo for 18 months, for 5.5 million dollars
.
Thus, it became
the first Argentine company to sponsor a Brazilian club
.
Incredibly difficult for such a successful company to invest in an Argentina with an
anti-business philosophy
, reflected in the blockades that Hugo Moyano and company carried out against Mercado Libre due to the union enrollment of some of its workers. Juan Sutil, the president of the powerful Confederation of Production and Commerce in Chile, had already told Clarín: "Chilean companies are leaving because
in Argentina there is a clear anti-business sentiment."
To which should be added, that
there is no clear plan or direction.