Ignacio Ortelli
08/26/2021 16:07
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 08/26/2021 4:07 PM
Olivosgate caused
a
shock
to the government
when it seemed to have
fine-
tuned the campaign strategy and sought to install the reactivation agenda. Three weeks before the election, in the Casa Rosada they are working to put the scandal behind them and at the same time redouble their efforts to narrow the margin to continue losing votes. With this premise, an eventual
high level of absenteeism in the PASO
is today one of the great concerns that the strategists of the official campaign have.
The high level of participation in the 2019 presidential elections, in which Alberto Fernández defeated Mauricio Macri, is not a precedent that deactivates
the combo that officials understand converges to expect a rise in absenteeism
: the pandemic, not only due to the fear of an eventual contagion, but because of the social and economic wear it caused in the people, the mirror of elections in other countries of the world and a generalized disenchantment with politics are factors that are warned in official offices.
"There is
going to be a certain drop in the level of participation
, we will try to make it less than expected", admits to
Clarín
an office in Casa Rosada, which details the efforts that the Government has been making from the Media Secretariat, led by Francisco Meritello, to make people aware of the need to vote.
“We have been taking care of ourselves for more than a year and a half.
And we will continue to do so.
By going to vote, we are also taking care of democracy
”, is the legend, highlighted, which reinforces the intense campaign in graphics, radio and television that reminds citizens how to proceed to vote on September 12.
"By going to vote we are also taking care of democracy", is one of the messages in the notices that the Government took out, calling not to miss the STEP.
The notices recall
the additional prevention measures provided by the National Electoral Chamber
and guarantee that there will be no overflows: among other issues, it specifies that older people will be given priority to vote between 10:30 and 12:30, and that at any time the "Health Facilitator", a new figure, can be appealed to the authorities of the voting center who will provide exceptional care measures to avoid contagion.
It is also emphasized that, given the expansion of the number of schools enabled to decompress, citizens should consult the registry before the Sunday of the election, since in many cases there were changes.
Although the advertising campaign is very institutional, since it was made at the request of the National Electoral Directorate, which is under the orbit of the Minister of the Interior, Eduardo "Wado" de Pedro,
the reference to the "care" of democracy has a political seasoning
: one of the flags of Together for the Change of face to the Legislative ones revolves around the need to put a limit to the ruling party and avoid an automatic majority in Congress.
The figures of the first important election of the year, the provincial legislatures in Salta ten days ago, do not help to maintain optimism: only 64% percent voted and 13% did so blank, which narrowed the spectrum of votes positive.
For the Government, however,
"they are not comparable cases", given that it was a provincial contest
.
However, they estimate that there will be a decrease in relation to 2019. “This is a Legislative, which many people interpret as not moving the ammeter.
That is why
we believe that it is likely that there will be a drop
, despite everything that is being done with the health protocol to guarantee that it will be safe to go to vote ”, adds another lofty source.
How much will the decline in participation be?
The yardstick that specialists use to calculate the calculation has to do with the percentage of the PASO 2019, where 76.4% was reached, and not so much the 80.8 of the general ones, since it was a context in which the At that time, the Macri government focused its efforts on calling for a vote in order to force a ballot.
So far,
the absenteeism record in the legislatures at the national level was registered in 2001
, when at the national level it approached 26%, in the midst of the "rough vote" that garnered almost 20 percent of blank and invalid votes.
In the Government they avoid giving numbers in public, but they
fear that absenteeism oscillates at that level
.
How the percentage of those who will vote will be distributed is another question.
After the enormous expectation that Alberto Fernández had produced - according to the polls - when he took office, due to his anti-crack speech and the promises of economic reactivation prior to the pandemic, the scenario may be different for the Frente de Todos.
Although Peronism, based on its electoral machinery and its deployment in the territory,
tends to suffer less from the decline in participation than other forces
, the high rate of rejection accumulated by the administration, higher in relation to the opposition variants, means that in the The ruling party is considering an operation to commit all those who are willing to vote for the ballot led by Victoria Tolosa Paz.
"We have to make sure that ours all go and that those in front are taken on Sunday as much as possible", is the reflection made by a minister of those who (for Cristina) "work" and dialogues with the suburban mayors to oil the apparatus.
The premise is that of
that 30 percent of hard-core Kirchner voters, which reflect pro-government and opposition polls, there will be no casualties
.
In any case, to win, the government will have to reconquer at least a portion of the independents and the middle class that it convinced in 2019. Three weeks to go.
Look also
Noises in the AFI, the numbers of Alberto Fernández and the barbecue of María Eugenia Vidal
Since November, Argentines vaccinated with two doses will be able to enter Uruguay with negative PCR and without quarantine