Ignacio Zuleta
09/05/2021 18:47
Clarín.com
Politics
Updated 09/05/2021 18:47
Cristina has to take care more of her partners than of the opposition
The smoke obscures the forest, which seems to be on fire.
If the gestures of the leadership in the campaign had a correlation in the facts,
Argentina would be on the brink of a civil war
.
The social climate, on the contrary, is peaceful, indifferent, one week before the elections.
It expresses a deep Argentina, which is not the one of the terrifying indicators that the cantamañanas take advantage of to prophesy misfortunes that never come.
There are no indicators that announce profound changes - whatever the result of the elections on Sunday and those of November - that is why the opinion of the opinion is focused on the
leadership struggle in the two coalitions
. Cristina's fate is in danger if Peronism loses seats in the Senate. If that happens, his government partners will take a toll on him: those of Peronism in the interior, who will have shown disinterest in shielding their power in the Chamber, and those of the presidential trifecta.
Alberto lets out details of his complaints with Christianity from Olivos.
Massa, crouched in silence, dreams of a growth in his power in Deputies that will allow him to navigate the two years that remain until 2023. He also filters that he has a new government planned, with
celebrity economists and recipes to get the country out of stagnation
where he's been since he took office.
In these hours, Alberto has lamented that he had only 100 days of peace in office.
Two firm assumptions
: 1) Cristina runs a greater risk of being shelved by her own partners than by the opposition, which has not succeeded since 2015;
2) Argentina is governed by the club of those who ask to be allowed to kick the penalty again –Cristina, Alberto, Massa-.
Another proof of affluent Argentina.
They speak more to sponsors than to voters
This uncertainty is reasonable in a game where political "positions" are mixed with politicians with their own power.
It is less important who speaks, than to whom each one speaks.
The politicians Alberto and Kicillof speak to Cristina
, who put them where they are.
Those with power of their own speak to the voters.
This downplays what the leaders, candidates or not, say in the campaign.
They give lyrics to audiovisuals, which need to do journalism based on the sayings of Alberto, Macri, Victoria Tolosa or Máximo.
They are words that the wind blows, because voters already know who they are going to vote for.
The illusion that voters decide at the last minute is
a fiction of advertising consultants to spoon a coin out of the candidates
.
Not even a caller works, like that of the candidate for deputy of Peronism in PBA, who has ensured that in that party it is garcha.
He had to produce a list of men, women, of all sexes to join the militancy of the wetlands.
Not even that did.
Choose your own adventure
In this table, the only thing that matters in the PASO on Sunday is what each one is going to tell about how they did at the fair.
Which are also 24
.
Impossible a synthesis in which everyone agrees.
As in the circular stories for children, or the Cortazarian hopscotch:
each one will choose their own adventure
.
No one will be able to sing triumphs or mourn defeats.
The politician's dream: to finish fooling everyone all the time, what Lincoln believed was impossible.
Peronism will be the first minority and
what will matter is the difference by which it was won and lost
.
These differences will show up at the edges - a perception that adds more risk to polls, which should hit the fine numbers.
Since this Saturday the
prohibition of advertising on the intention to vote
, a product almost in disuse due to the installed uncertainty, has been in force.
A firm like
Poliarquía
, which once seemed to have patented the crystal ball, recorded in its latest report, "trends" and "probabilities" in each district, without risking beyond the qualitative.
Nice short cut of the pollsters who are, here and around the world, the
first victims of the election results
.
The government gambles what it has, the opposition what it can pretend.
It is the advantage of being opposition.
The results will go to Justice
Nor will it be easy to conclude on names due to the complexity of the system that combines: 1) compulsory voting;
2) STEP;
3) quota by sex;
4) gender parity;
5) "d'Hont" system.
The baquianos - empowered, electoral judges - are preparing for an
escalation of judicial disturbances due to the overlapping application of these norms
.
In Buenos Aires, the internal regulations of the PASO de Juntos (for Change) are somewhat simplified, which created a small table of bands that is distributed between the sexes according to the percentage of vote of each participant.
This ingenuity prevents that, by application of the parity law, in an even result, one list lists all men and the other, all women
.
It is what
is feared that it could happen in Santa Fe
, where Peronism did not foresee that eventuality if there is a tight parity between the lists of Agustín Rossi and Marcelo Lewandowski.
This sacrifice on the altars of parity does not seem to worry Ricardo López Murphy, who may be the victim in CABA of a confusing norm that few understand.
He was able to mount his campaign on the call for a useful vote, in an informed district,
to ask not to be left out
.
Is it enough for you to carry out the campaign, a contribution that Larreta has asked of you in exchange for assuming the costs of a campaign that needs resources?
Miracles in campaign
Misiones is a land of miracles.
It brought about the end of the reelectionist attempt of Peronism in 2006, which discouraged
Néstor Kirchner's
attempt to
run for a new term in 2007
.
Miracle, because Jorge Bergoglio was the campaign manager of Monsignor Piña, a candidate for a conventional election who knocked down those projects of
Carlos Rovira, Felipe Solá and Eduardo Fellner
, as well as Kirchner.
He nominated Piña Archbishop of Iguazú, and even took care of securing the funds for that election.
Will there be more miracles in red lands?
It is not the primary intention of Ramón Puerta, who this Monday takes Miguel Pichetto to Oberá.
Macri's former running mate is the most energetic militant of Creole anticlericalism, and an implacable contradictor of Bergoglian “pobrismo”.
In Oberá they will introduce you to the local bishop, Damián Santiago Bitar.
Puerta's son, Pedro, is a candidate for Republican Peronism
, Pichetto's national seal, in the PASO next Sunday.
Neither Puerta nor Pichetto are models of piety, but in politics no resource is too much.
Not the incense from the altars.
Radicals repeat correntina party
Also the campaigns are temples of
resurrections. The most notable is that of radicalism
, which fights in various districts with the PRO. This Wednesday in Quilmes, at the closing of the formula of Facundo Manes, the federal wing of that party will repeat the rampage in Corrientes. They close the campaign together with Gustavo Valdés, reelected with a record of votes in that province, Gerardo Morales, Ernesto Sanz, Luis Naidenoff and the entire arc that confronts the radicalism of the AMBA, syndicated in Nosiglia and his delegate Martín Lousteau.
The dispute is long-term and the radicals who have become used to surviving underwater look to the day after tomorrow.
The new leadership of the National Committee is fighting throughout the country
.
The heads that appear are those of Morales and Lousteau, who have vote collectors for delegates to the National Committee throughout the national territory.
The numbers are finite in favor of one and the other.
This opens the third man bracket as a synthesis.
This cover exists and may have a chance: it is Naidenoff
, head of the opposition senators' bloc and one of the party's tunnellers.
In that role, he reconciled Morales and Lousteau, made a conference call between three and forced them to apologize and agree to a new peace.
D'hontear or not D'hontear, that is the question
Also thinking about the day after tomorrow, the stokers on the third list with radicals in CABA, headed by Adolfo Rubinstein, celebrate for what they believe is a
moral triumph
. They go against the Lousteau radicals, who are on Vidal's list and the figure of the former radical López Murphy. He consoles himself with "d'hontear", that is to say, entering the mixer of charges for the minority through the D'Hont system.
The Rubinstein strip has
high callers such
as Luis Brandoni and Facundo Suárez Lastra, and they are content to be present on the local grid.
They may not “d'hontear” but they will have achieved visibility so that they will
stop ignoring them from Together for Change
of the City, an understanding between Larreta, Lousteau and Angelici, which today denies them a chair in any conversation.
Carrió advanced in a domino move
Carrió, vigilant in the face of the threat of the “embrace of the bear” of massismo,
knocked down several boxes to this plan
: 1) the gerontocracy project in the Court, which they now attribute to Gustavo Ferrari, advisor to María Eugenia Vidal, and before Daniel Scioli, for the benefit of Ricardo Lorenzetti; 2) the post-STEP and post-election agreement legends for some co-government of the generational of Peronism and JxC (Larreta, Massa, Redrado, Randazzo, Monzó, Frigerio, Ritondo, Vidal) to overcome the cycle of Cristina and Macri.
At the opposition meeting last Monday, Larreta took care to say that this was a hoax and that it should be denied on the spot.
For something it will be
. Carrió's impulse may continue in court according to a presentation by the head of the Coalition in a case for illicit association, of leaders who persecute her without evidence. May explode after STEP. In the meantime, patch risk areas for Sunday.
The most entertaining will be the coincidence with
Pichetto on Wednesday in Santa Fe.
She will support the list of José Corral, allied to the CC; he, that of Angelini-Granata-Laspina-Faurie, from the PRO.
Stardust
. Vidal waits at the end of the campaign on Thursday. That day marks one year of the announcement of the removal of a co-participation point from the CABA to give it to Kicillof. That money, a blow to the police funds, was an attack on the PRO management in the only district it governs. It was the realization of a project that the government had in 2019; it was delayed by the plague and precipitated by a police strike in Buenos Aires.
At this event, which
will
be
attended by the entire Cambiemos leadership
, Vidal will call on all the candidates to commit to recovering that money.
She knows that no one will come to accompany her, because that cause is only for Cambiemos, which is the only opposition.
Cristina, pessimist, squints the Senate
The Government spends the last cartridges in its
strategy of the vaccine-vote
.
A testimony is the pause of the
trolls
that roam the networks disqualifying opponents of the national health policy.
Until two months ago, they flooded every appearance of critics of the perpetual quarantine.
They have disappeared, as if acknowledging that they were losing their grip on the majority opinion.
Part of this strategy is the
extension that Cristina decided for the Senate
, for 60 days, of the protocol that imposes blended sessions. The opposition will reactivate the protection before the Justice so that the reform of the regulation is made by 2/3 of the votes and not by a simple majority. They agreed to attend the virtual session of the Foreign Relations committee this week because the issue of Chile was discussed, where they have positions close to the Government to reject the bordering decrees of Sebastián Piñera.
The extension of the virtuality also surprised the ruling party of the chamber. The only explanation they admit is that Cristina, on her own,
rejects the policy of opening activities undertaken by the governments of the Nation and the provinces
. He believes that they are looking for votes, and are not preventing a wave of infections that may come before the end of the year from the Delta strain, perhaps worse than what has been experienced. If that happens she will be able to say, did you see that I was right? Another way to differentiate yourself from Alberto.