Despite increasing Iran's uranium enrichment rate, and estimating that if it wants to, within a few weeks it will be able to get its hands on a high level of enriched uranium sufficient for one nuclear bomb - the military top estimates that the IDF has enough time to prepare a military option to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. .
This reassuring stance stems from a change in the position of Israel, which in the past defined as a red line a situation in which the Iranian authority has sufficient high-level enriched nuclear material for one bomb.
Now, Israel is adopting the American interpretation that the red line will be an advance in the development of the additional components needed for the bomb - including the explosive device itself and, of course, the ballistic missiles.
To produce a nuclear warhead requires about 1,400 kg of low-level enriched uranium (3.5 percent), which is later enriched to about 220 kg of medium-level uranium (20 percent).
The next step is enrichment to a high level, of 60 and 90 percent, when at the end of the process 40 kg of enriched material at the level of 90 percent is required for one bomb. This amount is defined by the intelligence bodies as SQ1.
"Iran is not strong today, so action can be taken to stop it."
Defense Minister Ganz meets with heads of research institutes in Washington // Photo: Shmulik Almani
The time required to enrich uranium to a level of 20 percent is infinitely longer than the time required to enrich uranium to a higher level.
Thus, uranium enrichment from a level of 20 to 60 percent may take several months, and from a level of 60 to 90 percent only a few weeks are required.
However, it is estimated that Tehran will not choose to enrich for this rate in the near future.
In the nuclear deal signed in 2015, Iran undertook a series of measures designed to keep it away from the bomb.
These include giving up the medium-enriched uranium reservoir (20 percent enrichment) it has accumulated so far, and a significant reduction in the low-grade enriched uranium reservoirs (3.5 percent).
In practice, prior to the nuclear agreement with Iran in 2015, Tehran had sufficiently enriched material at a low level for about seven nuclear bombs (SQ7), while currently it has enriched uranium sufficient for three nuclear bombs (SQ3).
Despite the increased rate of enrichment, Iran has less than half of the nuclear material needed for a single bomb at a 60 percent enrichment level.
Barak Heavy Water Production Facility, Photo: IPI
Although Iran has significantly accelerated the pace of uranium enrichment in recent times, as far as is known it has made almost no progress in terms of assembling the bomb itself and the bomb mechanism, as well as in developing the ballistic missiles that are supposed to carry the bombs.
It is estimated that this process will take Iran at least a year and a half to two years, which are Israel's time window to prepare for an attack on Iran.
For a long time, Israel and the United States were divided over the timetable for turning Iran into a nuclear state.
Now, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi believes that Iran's arrival in SQ1 is not a deadline for halting the nuclear program, as Iran has nothing to do with bomb - enriched nuclear material.
According to the IDF's top approach, if Iran had a larger amount of enriched material at the military level, with the addition of advanced centrifuges that currently have only small numbers at its disposal, the situation would be more serious.
Minimal attack ability
One way or another, although the IDF has recently been criticized in light of the fact that due to a lack of budget in recent years, the military has not accelerated its plans to attack Iran despite the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal, the IDF leadership believes By Iran, the IDF has enough time to prepare the military option before Iran becomes nuclear.
Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi, Photo: AFP
At the same time, the IDF clarifies that even now there is minimal ability to attack Iran, but action at this time will result in more casualties and may be less effective. It would also not be true to say that in recent years the military has not dealt with Iran at all. From Chief of Staff Kochavi's multi-year plan, 1818 Tnufa, and he was the one who also decided on the establishment of a strategy and third circle wing, in other words, a branch in the IDF trusting the Iranian issue.
Israel now hopes that the Americans will understand that the diplomatic path is leading nowhere, and will move to the alternative plan, which includes harsh sanctions, a credible threat of a military option and a deepening of Iran's political isolation.
In Israel, it is estimated that the more the Iranians defy and pile difficulties on the United States, the closer the Biden administration approaches this option. At the same time, Israel recognizes that the Russians and Chinese are also losing patience in the face of Iran's difficulties.
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