Is a new war looming in Bosnia?

Expert expresses a completely different thesis

Created: 12/29/2021 Updated: 12/29/2021, 9:00 PM

Bosnian President Mirolad Dodik wants to split off his part of the country from Bosnia-Herzegovina.

(Archive image) © Sotiris Dimitropoulos / Imago

The political conflict in Bosnia-Herzegovina is getting worse.

The leader of the Bosnian Serbs wants to accelerate the division of the country.

But an expert does not believe in a new war.

Sarajevo - The mood in Bosnia and Herzegovina is tense: the Yugoslav war is still deep in the bones of the population, the state is fragile.

The leader of the Bosnian Serbs, Milorad Dodik, threatens to detach his part of the country from the central state.

The parliament of the Serbian part of the country Republika Srpska has already taken the decision to withdraw competences from the central state.

Is a new war looming in Bosnia?

Bosnia: President Dodik wants to separate part of the country from the central state

Dodik now apparently wants to turn the repeated threats into action.

“It is time for the Republic of Srpska to conquer freedom,” he said in early December.

The parliament of the Serbian republic in Banja Luka then decided to withdraw from the army, the judicial and tax systems of the central government.

"Bosnia is moving in a direction that we did not agree when we signed the Dayton Peace Agreement," the 62-year-old said. Dodik takes the view that the central government has illegally withdrawn powers from the Republika Srpska in 140 areas. This should now be reversed. Bosnia-Herzegovina is nothing more than “a paper republic”, stressed Dodik.

As early as September Dodik announced that he would build his own army.

New laws on the judicial system of the Serbian republic should be passed in January, said the Bosnian Serb on December 22nd.

The judiciary of the central government would no longer have the right to act on the territory of the Bosnian Serbs.

The prosecutor's investigation condemned Dodik as a “political process” to “destabilize” his part of the country.

Is there a threat of war in Bosnia?

Expert names different motivation for conflict

Srdjan Blagovčanin, Bosnian anti-corruption fighter and employee of Transpareny International, told the

that he did not believe in a new war: Dodik's actual motivation was different. “In order to maintain the status quo and stay in power, nationalist politicians like Dodik have to increase tensions from time to time.” The head of state wanted to divert attention from domestic political failure and corruption.

Blagovčanin is certain that armed conflict would no longer be possible these days.

The context is now different from 1991, the European military mission Eufor is still stationed in Bosnia and the neighboring countries are now also members of NATO.

"I think politicians are fueling tensions in order to secure their positions," said Blagovčanin to the

.

Fear of war in Bosnia: "Everything points to conflict"

In order to build up its own army or a judicial system, the Republika Srpska has to pass many laws - but because these are unconstitutional, the Bosniak MPs have a right of veto. Then the matter would have to be dealt with before the Constitutional Court. "It will take months, until the elections, and after that nobody will talk about it because the ethno-national parties have secured their power and access to resources for four more years." Dodik's threat to build his own army became loud the experts also fail because of financial resources.

The editor-in-chief of the Bosnian daily

, Vildana Selimbegović, sees it differently: "Everything that is being said in the parliament of the Serbian Republic these days points to conflicts," she told the

.

The situation is very serious.

The fact that Dodik has special police units equipped with machine guns does the rest.

The journalist sees sanctions against Dodik and those around him as the only solution.

However, it depends on a precisely coordinated response between the USA and the EU.