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Palestinian women react to the demolition of their home in Hebron
Photo: ABED AL HASHLAMOUN / EPA
One of the premises for the functioning of the current Israeli government is the decision not to make any decisions in politics towards the Palestinians. In a coalition in which two parties are in favor of a two-state solution and at least three parties are fundamentally against a Palestinian state, that may well be correct. The main task of the Bennett administration is to keep ex-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu out of power for good. But this "status quo," as it is called, is of course not one. Far from the gaze of the international community of states, which has long since turned to other, more pressing political crises, the settlement project in the West Bank continues in small and large steps.
Like a mantra, international politics repeats over and over again the demand for a "peace process" and a "two-state solution" without even having the strength or the will to take new initiatives. Why also? All attempts have so far failed. Neither Israelis nor Palestinians have an interest in resolving the conflict; both sides seem to benefit from the situation. The Israeli economy is flourishing, more and more Arab states are making peace with the Jewish state, Israeli society does not have to pay a price for the occupation, so what the heck? Many Palestinians also benefit. At least the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the hundreds of thousands of families it pays. There are beneficiaries of the situation on both sides: all those who, as experts,Advisors, peace activists, politicians, security forces or NGOs ensure that people constantly pretend that something is happening without something happening.
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Or no, something is moving. Palestinians and Israelis are heading for a one-state reality. This reality has been either invoked or demonized by many intellectuals on both sides for years. Since the existence of Zionism, the one-state solution has been anchored in the canon of Middle Eastern peace considerations as one of many utopias. After the Oslo peace agreement in 1993, when Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Palestinian leader Yassir Arafat shook hands in the rose garden of the White House, leading Palestinian intellectuals such as the great Edward Said soon pointed out the weaknesses of the agreement and the idea of a one-state -Solution resumed, although Said admitted in an interview that he did not know how this should work,the Jews would probably no longer be safe for two peoples in one state.
In 2014, the then US Secretary of State John Kerry bit his teeth again at the peace process, his President, Barack Obama, let it go, even though he had already given up himself. Nothing works since then. The Palestinians are at odds with one another and their President Mahmud Abbas is far too weak or unwilling to develop or take up any initiatives. And in the eleven years under Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership, Israel made no step toward the Palestinians, except for insignificant lip service.
So both Israelis and Palestinians stumble into the one-state reality.
And some say it is already there.
Because both sides are already so wedged and interwoven in the West Bank that there is almost no chance of reversing this reality.
Can the democratic-liberal Jewish state survive like this?
Concerned Israelis are currently wondering what this reality will mean in the long run.
Can the democratic-liberal Jewish state survive like this?
For many there are only two options: Israel is still separating from the occupied territories and thus remains essentially Jewish.
Or it keeps everything.
And then there are again only two options: The roughly 3 million Palestinians in the West Bank (not to mention Gaza) do not get citizenship.
Israel would then be de facto an apartheid state.
Or they get citizenship, then the Palestinians, purely demographically, would quickly have the majority in this one state and the Zionist project will be a thing of history.
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"Grand Coalition" in Israel: And it holds.
And lasts.
Richard C. Schneider reports from Jerusalem
Only recently, Alon Pinkas, the former Israeli consul in the USA, wrote one of his exciting columns for the left-liberal Israeli daily »Haaretz«, which mostly deals with relations between Israel and the USA. This time, however, he asked what would happen if something happened, something the Israeli military in particular already fears and what it is also trying to prepare, as the only state body, is that the Palestinian Authority will actually "hand over the keys" out of desperation in the near future and dissolves? Israel, as the occupying power, would then not only have to ensure security in the West Bank, but also take over the entire administration again - from health care to garbage collection.
In the telephone conversation, Alon Pinkas emphasizes that it is highly unlikely that the PA will take this step: “This is a worst-case scenario. After all, the PA represents at least partial Palestinian sovereignty. If it were to dissolve, the Palestinians could never again get any form of sovereignty. «Because that much is clear, Israel will never, ever allow around 2.5 million (including Gaza: around 5 million) Palestinians the right to vote , it would be the end of the Jewish state. But what if President Abbas threatened to dissolve it? The Palestinians could announce a timetable within which they will gradually give up their autonomy. That would certainly get them international attention. That is exactly what the PA could aim at."And what would happen", Pinkas continues, "if the Palestinians then went to the UN and demanded the right to vote in Israel?" More and more Palestinian academics and intellectuals see this as the only possible way forward.
Only what then? There are quite a few on the Israeli side who are also concerned about it. A study by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv presents four possible solutions, two of which are likely to make the most sense. On the one hand, there is the long-standing idea of a confederation. It was once comprised of three states: Israel, Palestine and Jordan. But after both Jordanians and Palestinians do not believe in this three-pack, what remains is a confederation of two partners: Israel and the Palestinian Authority. With borders that would be open and settlers that are only partially being brought back to the heartland of Israel. There are many unsolved problems that could trigger a military conflict at any time,but in the long run this "two-state confederation" could be an opportunity to come to a two-state solution in the long term. The other possibility: The international community of states would take care of the Palestinian territory and administer and organize it. As has already been successfully demonstrated in Germany, Japan and elsewhere. Pinkas thinks this is more reasonable. “But to be understood correctly, I don't think any of these approaches could become a reality. That would require a Palestinian-Israeli consensus, "he states dryly. And that is not to be expected.The international community would take care of the Palestinian territory and administer and organize it. As has already been successfully demonstrated in Germany, Japan and elsewhere. Pinkas thinks this is more reasonable. “But to be understood correctly, I don't think any of these approaches could become a reality. That would require a Palestinian-Israeli consensus, "he states dryly. And that is not to be expected.The international community would take care of the Palestinian territory and administer and organize it. As has already been successfully demonstrated in Germany, Japan and elsewhere. Pinkas thinks this is more reasonable. “But to be understood correctly, I don't think any of these approaches could become a reality. That would require a Palestinian-Israeli consensus, "he states dryly. And that is not to be expected.And that is not to be expected.And that is not to be expected.
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Violent crimes in Israel: "The motto for Arab deaths is: Let them kill each other" An interview by Monika Bolliger
The one-state reality - not to be confused with the one-state solution - is becoming more and more a political fact.
Ex-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once dreamed of the day when the world would no longer care about the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
That day has long since arrived.
Yet that means Israel is alone with the problem.
There are no longer any states that would invest millions of dollars in a peace process.
Not even the US.
They have completely different worries.
And what about Israel's new Arab friends?
The Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia?
They would only invest if they saw a political benefit for themselves.
Otherwise?
Nothing.
Perhaps one day the Palestinian Authority will disband after all.
Or at some point there will be a third intifada.
Then the cards could possibly be reshuffled.
Perhaps the tired world community will try to intervene again somehow.
Or maybe not.