Ukraine war with Putin's Russia?

This would have fatal consequences for Erdogan's Turkey

Created: 2/1/2022Updated: 2/1/2022 8:54 PM

By: Bedrettin Bölükbasi

Vladimir Putin (left), President of Russia, and Recep Tayyip Erdogan (right), President of Turkey, discussed Russian-Turkish relations during a meeting.

© Vladimir Smirnov/imago

The Ukraine conflict between Kiev and Moscow could escalate and hit another country, Turkey, badly.

A war would also threaten Ankara's interests.

Munich - Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan undoubtedly wants to become more active in foreign policy and appear more strongly on the international stage.

The country focuses primarily on the Middle East and Africa.

But the Caucasus and Central Asia are also increasingly moving into the picture of Turkey's foreign policy ambitions.

Again and again, Ankara comes up against Moscow.

Whether in Syria, Libya or Azerbaijan - Turkey and Russia usually support different sides.

With the escalation of the Ukraine crisis, another major area of ​​conflict could arise, which would, however, throw Turkey into a dilemma.

To prevent this, Ankara relies heavily on diplomacy.

Russia-Turkey: Difficult relations - combination of confrontation and cooperation

The relationship between Turkey and Russia is difficult. In any case, there is no shortage of examples. In Syria, Turkey supports and arms rebels, while Russia sides with the Assad regime. Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet there in 2015 and an attack by the Russian-backed regime in February 2020 killed 34 Turkish soldiers. As a result, Turkey inflicted huge losses on the regime in an intensive drone offensive and also destroyed a number of Russian air defense systems. The quality of Russian weapons has long been mocked on social media.

In Libya, Turkey supports the government in Tripoli, while Russia supports the Khalifa Haftar campaign in the east of the country. At the height of the conflict in 2020, Ankara again sent drones and soldiers to Libya. The capital Tripoli was already about to be taken by Haftar, who was mainly supported by Russian Wagner mercenaries close to the Kremlin, when Turkey's intervention was able to repel the offensive. The tide turned in favor of the government in Tripoli, and not only was it able to conquer lost territories, but far more.

Ankara and Moscow also supported different parties in the Karabakh war - Turkey supported Azerbaijan and Russia supported Armenia.

Ankara again sold drones to Azerbaijan and provided all military and diplomatic backing.

It was only with this support that troops from Baku were able to recapture large areas in the Karabakh region from the Armenian military after around 30 years.

In this case, however, the "difficult" relationship between the countries does not necessarily mean "bad", but much more "unclear". The same Turkey that finds itself on opposite sides with Russia in key areas of conflict is also striving for good relations. The Astana format is being used to resolve the Syrian conflict, and a joint center in Karabakh is monitoring the ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Turkey buys Russian S-400 air defense systems and is interested in Russian fighter jets. Pictures of Russian rulers Vladimir Putin and Erdogan in Moscow circulated around the world as they ate ice cream together and examined the Russian Su-57 fighter jet in a cheerful atmosphere.

Ukraine conflict: Turkey's challenge - Moscow angered by Ankara's military aid to Kiev

The escalation of the Ukraine conflict now poses another challenge for Turkey in relation to Russia.

Turkey is also working with Ukraine in key areas - above all the defense industry.

After all, Ukraine is an important partner for Turkish interests.

The country was the first customer of Turkey's Bayraktar TB2 drones.

Turkey is also building four Ada-type corvettes, equipped with state-of-the-art weapons, for the Ukrainian Navy.

In return, Turkey is hoping for engines and aircraft technology from Ukraine.

In Moscow, however, the rapprochement is not welcomed at all.

In particular, the TB2 drones in Ukrainian hands could prove a major threat to Russian troops.

Moscow eventually felt the effects of these machines in Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan.

But despite the good relations with Russia and the resulting problems in NATO, Turkey is completely in line with the alliance in the Ukraine crisis.

The Russian annexation of Crimea is not recognized and Moscow is repeatedly warned of an invasion.

Ukraine crisis: Dilemma for Ankara - Turkey does not want to annoy trading partners, but also against invasion

A war between Ukraine and Russia would now create an extreme dilemma for Turkey.

This would be another episode of difficult relationship.

Turkey does not welcome a Russian invasion of Ukraine and makes this clear, but Russia is an important trading partner.

In addition, Ankara is dependent on gas supplies from Moscow and Russia would possibly also put pressure on Turkey in Syria.

Moscow clearly has the upper hand there.

So Turkey would be reluctant to anger Russia too much.

While Turkey wants good relations with Russia, should Russian influence in the region continue to grow, it would pose a major threat to Turkish security interests in the Black Sea. The only route of communication between the inland sea and the Mediterranean is via the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus, both of which are under Turkish sovereignty. Turkey also has the longest coastline. Thus, Ankara has great control over the sea, but with great concern the government follows Moscow's efforts to turn the Black Sea into a Russian lake. A new invasion of Ukraine after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 could accelerate this process.

There is also a special bond between Crimea and Turkey.

The country feels closely connected to the Crimean Tatars due to religious and cultural aspects.

The peninsula was under Ottoman rule for a long time before it was taken over by the Russian Empire in 1783.

Ukraine conflict: Turkey wants to mediate between Moscow and Kiev - "like a dam against Russia"

"Ukraine is like a dam preventing greater Russian influence and pressure in the region," a senior Turkish diplomatic source told the online portal

. Should Ukraine fall, the source said, it would have major repercussions for Turkey. That is why everything necessary to prevent a war will be done, even if there is no hope, the source emphasized: "We have no other choice".

In order not to anger Russia, but at the same time to prevent the Ukraine dam from collapsing, Turkey wants to preserve the status quo and is relying on large-scale diplomacy to do so. Turkish President Erdogan invited Putin and Zelenskyj to Turkey for talks. The country is ready to mediate between Russia and Ukraine: "We hope to bring Mr. Putin and Zelenskyj together as soon as possible." In fact, both sides are positive about Turkish mediation, as

reported, citing diplomatic circles.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu repeats Erdogan's offer at every opportunity. The President himself is also actively involved and wants to travel to Ukraine on February 3. In addition, an answer has already come from the Kremlin. The Russian presidency announced that Putin had agreed to visit Turkey and meet Erdogan.

The dilemma in case of a Russian-Ukrainian war is a situation in which Turkey does not want to get at all.

That is why she does everything in her power to prevent a conflict.

Geopolitical analyst Yörük Isik succinctly sums up the dilemma to

: “In the midst of this crisis, do you intend to engage in military action that could damage your relationship with one of your major trading partners?

No of course not.

But if you don't intervene, it will damage your military credibility."