It's getting serious for Scholz: 48 hours of truth in February - which stumbling blocks the chancellor faces

Created: 2022-02-04 21:28

By: Florian Naumann

Olaf Scholz faces major tasks in February - the chancellor has to show his colors.

© Stefan Boness/Ipon/www.imago-images.de

A chancellor even more reserved than Angela Merkel?

For Olaf Scholz, the grace period ends in February.

When it comes to Corona and Russia, things are getting serious - an analysis.

Berlin/Moscow - Observers usually grant a new government 100 days as the first test.

The traffic light doesn't have that much time: the government of surprise chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) is in the constant fire of the crises - Omicron wave here, Ukraine conflict there.

Not to mention the construction sites that cause a stir in normal times, such as rising energy prices.

So the situation is difficult.

And that's why some critics are already losing patience with Scholz: In the first few days of February, the hashtag "WoIstScholz" was circulating on Twitter.

Not only the Union jumped on the bandwagon with joy.

Because Scholz, who won the election campaign in Merkel's style with as little target as possible, is deliberately staying in the background.

The grace period could be over as early as mid-February - the chancellor must probably deliver.

Twice within 24 hours.

Scholz before the Corona summit and Putin's visit - hours of truth in February

Because there have been two highly explosive February dates on Scholz's schedule since this Friday (February 4th): The next Corona summit has been dated February 16th for a long time.

One day earlier, it is now clear that the Chancellor will travel to Moscow to intervene directly in the struggle with Russia.

By the way, it wasn't the chancellery that announced it - it was the Kremlin.

Scholz did not have a specific date when he announced a meeting on ZDF on Wednesday.

Then clear positions will be necessary.

The last Corona summit had largely updated existing regulations - now a loosening debate is raging, also across the traffic light groups.

Scholz initially seemed to want to make Russia and the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline a top priority.

But Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock traveled to Moscow first.

And with her critical attitude she became a pioneer.

Here, too, staying still becomes difficult.

Scholz now has to clarify a few questions - the most important tasks at a glance:

Scholz under pressure: what the chancellor will do on his trip to Russia

• Sanctions for Russia:

  Scholz will have to fill his repeatedly proclaimed "dual strategy" of pressure and de-escalating negotiations with life - possibly with clearer announcements.

  His traffic light coalition is largely silent on the Russia question in view of the explosive foreign policy situation.

  Yet.

  A visit to Moscow without a clear position could reveal a power vacuum.

  Much depends on how the conflict on the Russian-Ukrainian border develops.

  Should the situation deteriorate, which is not necessarily to be expected, sanctions could become necessary.

  Either way, Scholz will have to justify himself in Moscow (and then domestically) for his stance on punitive measures.

• Clarifying the relationship with Putin and Russia:

  The chancellor party SPD has recently raised many question marks in its dealings with Russia. The question is whether the Social Democrats, with their former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, who is lobbying for Russian gas, are too close to Russia. Schröder provided new fodder for the debate on Friday. Scholz may have to distance himself more clearly from Schröder and thus from the interests of the Putin government. Exactly that could cause resentment in Moscow - and among some party friends. An overly friendly appearance, on the other hand, could bring the chancellor into an explanation. Internationally and in the Bundestag.

• Clear edge to Nord Stream 2:

  Directly linked: Scholz had long rejected sanctions for Nord Stream 2 - with the rather succinct note that it was a "private-sector project".

  Apparently, this attitude could not be fully maintained under external and internal pressure.

  However, there are still no official threats to the consequences for the pipeline.

  The SPD points out that ambiguity about concrete consequences is an effective means of pressure.

  But the last word has not yet been spoken on this question either.

  Calls for more concrete threats could grow.

• Arms deliveries to Ukraine:

  The federal government wants to deliver helmets to Ukraine - an offer that was not only received with a frown (to put it mildly) in Kiev.

  Most recently, Ukraine sent an arms delivery wish list to Berlin.

  Scholz has arguments for the attitude: In addition to Germany's special history as an aggressor in Eastern Europe, the Federal Republic also plays a special role as a more or less neutral mediator.

  Nevertheless, the date will be delicate in this respect.

  Calls for concessions and promises could be heard from both Ukraine and Russia.

  And Scholz has to answer.

• Messages between the lines:

  Meetings between heads of government are highly diplomatic terrain - pithy words are legitimately not to be expected in Moscow.

  All the more nuances will come into focus.

  Scholz's Foreign Minister Baerbock had completed her mission quite confidently with a cool but not rough appearance in the Kremlin.

  For Scholz, the appointment at Vladimir Putin's side is now the acid test.

  Donald Trump, for example, found out that, alongside the Russian president, you can also be put in a bad light thanks to political dependencies.

  Angela Merkel once had to endure an uncomfortable moment.

• All things Considered:

  As a mediator-to-be, Scholz is under pressure not to alienate any side - and at the same time has to position himself sufficiently hard: in order to avoid domestic political excitement at the expense of the SPD, but also to position Germany as an important voice.

  A difficult task.

  Which is made even more difficult by the circumstances.

  As an inaugural visit early in the chancellorship and in the midst of the Ukraine crisis, the appointment is under particular observation - long since international expressions of longing for Angela Merkel have been loud.

  At the same time, there is bilateral anger between Germany and Russia: because of the confusion surrounding RT DE and Deutsche Welle, but also because of the ongoing imprisonment of Alexei Navalny or Moscow's ban on the human rights organization Memorial.

  These topics will probably boil up before the visit to Germany.

Alone on the floor?

Olaf Scholz (here in the Bundestag) is threatened with two difficult courses in February.

© Political Moments/www.imago-images.de

Scholz' delicate Corona appointment: At the summit in mid-February, things will get serious when it comes to easing

• Unclear omicron situation:

  The corona situation is undisputedly complex: omicron, with its massive contagiousness and easier courses, could act as a game changer - and at the same time, with the new subtype BA.2, it is far from being fully explored in all infectious consequences.

  But the pressure is growing.

  At least calls for a clear exit plan from the Corona measures are sprouting up everywhere.

  Good preparation will be necessary.

• Relaxation debate:

  The Union in particular is putting Scholz under pressure: CSU boss Markus Söder in particular had recently pushed ahead with relaxation requests. But the situation in the coalition may be more explosive for the chancellor. The FDP is also showing signs of unrest, for example on the subject of 2G in retail. Even doctors have recently raised demands for a reassessment. The next federal-state round under Scholz's aegis will have to position itself - without risking damage to confidence and economic damage through hasty openings. A possible tactical advantage: Internally, the Union is not entirely in agreement either.

• Compulsory vaccinations:

  The heated debate about compulsory vaccinations is slowly heading towards the home straight.

  It will possibly become a topic at the summit, even if Scholz presents the Bundestag as a key player.

  The Union-led countries already put the issue on the agenda at the previous summit.

  An explosive problem comes to the fore: Is the vaccination requirement still proportionate in the face of Omicron?

  Scholz could be pushed to make a statement - and will have to justify the impression of complete restraint.

  The SPD seems to be largely in agreement.

  In view of the growing number of drafts, however, an internal traffic light line could also be in demand.

• Traffic light debates:

  A clear chancellor position could also be necessary for another reason: So far it is only the Union that calls for "leadership" in the Corona debates.

  But in view of the criss-crossing opening debates in the traffic light, the problem could expand.

  Scholz threatens to get caught between the chairs here too.

  His traffic light combines very different points of view - from the cautious Greens to the Liberals, who are focused on freedom issues.

  So far, Scholz has apparently been trying to avoid coalition gossip by largely letting it go.

  However, the strategy could reach its limits.

• Corona communication:

  Even the expert council used by Scholz had recently complained about communication deficits.

  The problem threatens to become virulent again.

  The Chancellor recently slowed down when there was a quick easing - but was also silent on long-term plans.

  A possible calculus: not to foment premature carelessness in the population.

  It remains to be seen whether this course can be defended.

  Many observers are now demanding open, well-explained steps.

  Scholz should already be responsible for the summit PK.

  By no means only in terms of rhetoric.

  A bitter aspect: In a Civey survey published on Friday for the Welt television channel, 56 percent of those surveyed stated that they found the corona policy either incomprehensible or not at all understandable.

In any case, the period of restraint should be over for Scholz in mid-February.

It seems unclear whether there is calculation behind the accumulation of appointments, or just Vladimir Putin's appointment calendar: At least domestically, the appearance in Moscow with the Corona summit could quickly recede into the background.

Whether that will be beneficial remains to be seen.

February 15th and 16th will be hours of truth for Scholz and his traffic lights one way or the other.

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