Special envoy to Moscow.
Emmanuel Macron is a president who likes to take risks.
And who never gives up when faced with an obstacle, even when it is deemed impassable for the most agile of racehorses.
So here he is in Moscow, to meet the bear of the Kremlin, who since last fall has been putting all of Europe in tension by massing more than 100,000 men on the borders of Ukraine, a former Soviet republic whose independence.
On the land of Vladimir Putin, in this Kremlin so steeped in history, secrets and twisted tricks, this seventh meeting with the Russian president, which adds to sixteen phone calls, will perhaps be the most important.
For the future of Ukraine.
For the security of Europe.
And for the president's international record, a few weeks before the presidential election.
“Invent a solution”
Emmanuel Macron's initiative aims to initiate a " de-
escalation
".
On the plane taking him to Moscow, the president confided in front of a few journalists that the idea of a “
Finlandization
” of Ukraine was part, among other subjects, of the files on the table.
“
Vladimir Putin wants a profound change in NATO policy, in the policy of open doors.
A solution must be found so that this space of security that is NATO coexists with Russia.
An element of adequacy is Ukraine's non-membership of NATO
,” he said.
Read also
How the Ukrainian crisis puts the Macron-Putin relationship to the test
While reaffirming that nothing will ever be done without the agreement of Ukraine.
The tete-a-tete with Vladimir Putin, which was to last as long as the two presidents wanted, was to make it possible to "
test hypotheses, to raise options
".
“
We have to
invent a new solution
around Ukraine
,” he said .
Is it a matter of twisting the arm of Volodymyr Zelensky, who was nevertheless associated with the visit to Moscow and who for several weeks has seen an increase in demonstrations of support from Westerners?
The equation is complex.
"
In this meeting, Emmanuel Macron has only shots to take
", comments a diplomat.
Not all come from Moscow.
The difficulty of the exercise is also in the cohesion between allies.
Read also
Four maps to understand the tensions between NATO and Russia
Americans first.
Emmanuel Macron wants to break the US-Russian tete-a-tete imposed by Vladimir Putin on Joe Biden, even as the Ukrainian crisis concerns Europe's security interests.
The new American president is not always a very reliable partner for France and for Europe.
Paris paid the price for American individualism in the fall with the Anglo-Saxon partnership Aukus, which killed the so-called “Australian submarine” contract.
Fragile European consensus
Ukrainians and Eastern Europeans learned this the hard way when the US president suggested that a small Russian incursion into Ukraine wouldn't be so bad.
The new alarmist declarations of the White House, which warns that Russia could launch its military operation in the wake of the visit of Emmanuel Macron, and those of the intelligence services which do not exclude a large-scale invasion of Ukraine, are not necessarily likely to facilitate the task of the French president, in Moscow as in Kiev.
The Ukrainian authorities have also criticized
Washington's "
apocalyptic forecasts ".
“
There is a lot of tension and nervousness… The American machine is increasing the pressure
”, recognizes the president in the plane.
There is a lot of tension and nervousness… The American machine is increasing the pressure
Emmanuel Macron, on the plane to Moscow
Difficult, in this context, even if the relations between the presidents are good and regular, to rely 100% on the American ally.
Joe Biden, who wanted to devote all his energy to countering China, would have done well without the Ukrainian crisis, he who took over the policies of withdrawal from Europe and the Middle East of his two predecessors.
The very offensive tone with which he surrounds the crisis from the start brings him back to the Old Continent in spite of himself.
Is it likely to reduce Emmanuel Macron's room for maneuver?
In 2008, when Nicolas Sarkozy had played the mediator between Moscow and Tbilisi to stop the Russian intervention in Georgia, he had benefited from a relative American erasure, George Bush being in the process of completing his mandate.
This is not the case with Joe Biden.
Read also
Ukraine: Putin's poker against the West
Another difficulty is cohesion between Europeans.
With its ideas of power and strategic autonomy, France is always suspected by its allies of wanting to weaken NATO.
Since the beginning of his mandate, Emmanuel Macron has also been criticized by his partners in Central and Eastern Europe for having taken solitary initiatives vis-à-vis Russia and having shown too much vis-à-vis Vladimir Putin of convenience.
But in the Ukrainian crisis, no one can blame him for not consulting with his allies.
Since the beginning of the month, he has multiplied meetings and phone calls with all European players and with the United States.
He also assured that the de-escalation he is seeking in Moscow will not be to the detriment of Ukraine's security and sovereignty.
But if peace were to be saved at the cost of compromise, the fragile European consensus could be shattered.
Read also
In three maps, the possible scenarios of an attack on Ukraine by Russia
The destructive hurricane Trump and failure in Afghanistan had brought water to the mill European Emmanuel Macron the need to beef up the European defense.
But the Russian invasion threats came showering the French concern vis-à-vis independence of the United States.
For face to Moscow, most European capitals close ranks behind Washington for defense.
Instead of a new impetus to European defense, the Russian threats have given contrary to a new life and a new legitimacy to the Atlantic Alliance.
The master of the game remains Vladimir Putin.
The Russian stage will tell if Emmanuel Macron, who considers that Russia is becoming "
a force of imbalance
", will succeed in placing his pawns and those of Europe.
In Moscow, military force often wins against diplomacy.
And sometimes realists like Emmanuel Macron are hampered by reality.