The Sahel, echoes of Afghanistan

In the heat of the pandemic, the Sahel has experienced a cascade of blows that have ended the governments of Sudan, Chad, Guinea-Conakry, Mali (twice) and recently, Burkina Faso.

One of those scenarios from which any sensible country would stay away if it were not for the geographical proximity reaching it, terrorism splashing it, and the long shadow of the Kremlin lying in wait, as is the case of the European Union.

To this authoritarian spiral must be added the failure of France, whose Army leads the anti-terrorist military operations in the area, in a protracted war of attrition in a stalemate.

The expulsion of the French ambassador to Mali, following statements by the French Foreign Minister accusing the Military Junta of being in collusion with the Russian mercenaries of the Wagner group,

The situation has many resonances with the Afghanistan of yesterday and today.

We find ourselves before countries that share the infallible recipe for structural instability: interethnic clashes, millions of young people with no prospects for the future, a swarm of insurgent groups in collaboration with the Islamic State or Al-Qaeda and, as a stony backdrop, corrupt governments and dysfunctional states with institutions unable to control and comply with society.

The victory of the Taliban in Afghanistan has made them a benchmark to follow, and the jihadist militias operating in the Sahel echo their demands: expel international troops, put an end to secular governments, impose

in all its rigor under the tutelage of

(the Islamic moral police) and, again, the subjugation of women as a sign of non-negotiable identity.

In central Mali, the International Crisis Group reports, the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims publicly flogs those who do not wear the

or

.

The final ingredient is provided by Russia's expansive presence through the Wagner paramilitary force company, active in vulnerable countries like Mozambique, probably now in Mali, or the Central African Republic, where Russian Valery Zakharov has been elected national security adviser.

A nominally justified presence to combat jihadism and, incidentally, protect autocratic regimes.

All this, together with the growing sympathy of the local population towards their Russian dictators and mercenaries, should draw our attention, currently focused on Ukraine, because as General Didier Castres affirms in a

, "with Wagner's irruption in Mali, we are witnessing the appearance of a kind of

of international relations”.

As it happened at the time in Afghanistan.

More information

France tries to avoid its Afghanistan in Africa

Exclusive content for subscribers

read without limits

subscribe

I'm already a subscriber