The fear of a Russian invasion of Ukraine has in recent days become a vague possibility of a clear and almost immediate threat.
Media outlets quoted senior U.S. officials as saying that Russia's military action seemed inevitable and even mentioned Wednesday as the target date for the start of the war.
Along with the likelihood that the formidable diplomatic efforts of Western leaders, including US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron, will prevent a flare-up of a military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, there are a variety of possible Russian action scenarios in its western neighbor. Completely.
The limited option: conquest of a land corridor to the Crimean peninsula
The first military option facing Russian President Vladimir Putin is also the easiest option in terms of scope and military risk.
Under this scenario, Russian military forces, massively covered by air and sea, would occupy the coastal strip of the Moss Sea, between the Russian border and the Crimean peninsula, and the city of Mariupol, the largest population center in this space cell.
This plan is relatively simple to implement thanks to Russia's tremendous naval advantage, the fact that the coastal strip is connected to the rest of Ukraine by several small roads that will make it difficult for the Ukrainian army to expedite aid to the region and also because most of the Ukrainian army is stationed far away.
In addition to the fact that such an operation would take time and cost in relatively few casualties, such an operation would ensure a land connection between Russia and the Crimea, provide it with greater access to drinking water in the future and could be presented as a military achievement.
The disadvantage of such an operation is the fact that the problem that is troubling the Kremlin, the pro-Western government in Kiev, will not be eliminated and it is likely that such a move will only help transfer public opinion in Ukraine to the Western arms.
The wider possibility: the conquest of eastern Ukraine
Another and somewhat less defined option facing decision-makers in Moscow is an extensive invasion of eastern Ukraine, potentially as far as the Dnieper River.
Such an action would include the conquest of large population centers such as the city of Dnipro.
Such an action would require many forces and would rely mainly on forces entering from the direction of the Russian border and the territories held by the pro-Russian separatists.
The benefits of such an operation are the creation of a buffer between Russia's territory and Ukraine as well as assistance to the separatist republics in eastern Ukraine by joining another Russian-speaking population to Russian control.
However, the meaning of a prolonged war with more ambiguous goals and a broader time frame is a greater risk, alongside the real chance that even after the occupation of eastern Ukraine, the regime in Kiev will remain hostile to Moscow.
Total war: Conquest of Kharkiv and Kiev
The option of total war is on the table and the main evidence for this is massive assessments by Russian military forces in Belarus.
In such a case, Russian forces will invade Ukraine on several fronts, besiege or occupy the capital Kiev and the second largest city in the country Kharkiv, and cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea in the Odessa region.
The advantage of an operation like Gaza is the possibility of finally overthrowing the democratic regime in Ukraine and bringing to power a pro-Russian government and thus resolving the crisis that has plagued the Kremlin since the Maiden Revolution in 2014. However, the risk is huge.
Experts estimate that tens of thousands of civilians will die, millions will become refugees and the chance that the Ukrainians will continue to fight in the west of the country in a way that will exhaust the Russian army and cause no heavy losses is a possibility that could cause Putin many domestic troubles.
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