Although rising tensions along the Russian-Ukrainian border have eased slightly over the past 48 hours following President Putin's "calming siren" about his desire to avoid war and exhaust the diplomatic channel (and following reports of a partial withdrawal of Russian power), it is too early to announce the end. The crisis.
Admittedly, even if the way of resolving the crisis is still shrouded in a fog of uncertainty, preliminary conclusions can be drawn as to the origins of the conflict.
Contrary to popular belief, the roots of the current conflict are not anchored primarily in the narrow Ukrainian context (since in any case there was no intention on the part of the West to join Ukraine in the NATO alliance in the near future or expand strategic cooperation with it) but to challenge the very nature and The European, which was formed after the collapse of the communist empire in 1991. This, taking advantage of the weakness of the American bishop, who repeatedly signals his intention to disengage from the centers of friction and war.
Civilians taking part in a military training course in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, Photo: API
Against this background, crushing the sovereignty of the pro-Western regime in Ukraine was seen as a means for the Kremlin to intimidate other players in the region, especially the Baltic states and Poland (which have already joined NATO) not to expand and deepen their security and economic ties with the Western powers. And thus direct them to a neutral and controlled political trajectory, in the spirit of Finland's prudent conduct since 1945.
However, unlike the Kremlin's successful move in 2014, when it took full advantage of President Obama's weakness to annex the Crimean peninsula and begin the process of seepage into eastern Ukraine, things are different in the current crisis.
For, despite the "green light" implicitly given by the White House, at the beginning of the crisis, to limited Russian military action, the American line became more and more acute as the crisis escalated, threatening to sweep the whole of Europe into a violent vortex.
This is after the American president's consciousness began to permeate the recognition that another show of resignation and laxity on his part in the spirit of his frightened withdrawal from Afghanistan and his unilateral and early concessions to Iran in the Vienna talks, would clog not only the hegemonic status of the American eagle On the era of Biden's presidency and legacy in the Oval Office.
In light of this recognition, recent days have been characterized not only by more belligerent rhetoric on the part of the president, but also, and especially, by vigorous American activity vis-à-vis Germany, the key European partner, which holds the key to changing the Russian president's balance of profits.
This is the Nordstrom 2 gas pipeline, which was laid in the depths of the Baltic Sea on the route between Russia and Germany, has already been completed, but its operation still requires a complex regulatory process, which has not yet been completed.
Motivating cannons of the Russian army are training near the Ukrainian border, Photo: EP
Lith Mann denies that this is an important source of future profit for the Putin regime and its shaky economy, which was suddenly questioned in the face of German Chancellor Schultz's willingness to join the containment struggle by creating a direct and explicit link between invading Poland and freezing Poland.
It was this powerful lever that became, therefore, the breach of equality - at least so far - in the entire campaign, and it was he who brought the Kremlin ruler to recalculate his course of action and reassess the balance of risks inherent in large-scale military action in Ukraine. "B.
If the Kremlin decides to shelve - or at least postpone for the time being - its military plans (in exchange, of course, for an American promise to refrain from Ukraine joining NATO in the near future and expanding its strategic involvement in the entire arena), then that would be a clear indication of its early death. Of American hegemony were, after all, too early.
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