Situation in Ukraine︱Liu Zhaojia: If the United States does not take strong action, Taiwan will be alone, and Hong Kong will be implicated

The situation in Ukraine has deteriorated sharply. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently recognized Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine as independent countries. The situation heated up rapidly yesterday (24th), the Russian army began to take military action against Ukraine, and there were many reports near the capital of Ukraine Kiev. Explosion.

Affected by the external situation, the Hong Kong stock market was weak yesterday. The Hang Seng Index closed down 758 points, falling below the 23,000-point level.

The situation in Ukraine has also attracted a certain amount of attention in Hong Kong, especially during the turmoil of the amendments in 2019. The demonstrators group compared the demonstration wave in Ukraine to overthrow the pro-Russian government in 2014, and widely broadcasted the documentary "Winter on Fire" on this theme. Fire), used to boost morale.

Xu Zhen, research director and current affairs commentator of the Zhiming Research Institute, believes that the actual impact of the situation in Ukraine on Hong Kong is limited, mainly due to adjustments in the financial market, which are short-term; however, Liu Zhaojia, vice president of the National Association for Hong Kong and Macau Studies, pointed out that Putin's "death" is based on the United States. The leading Western camp did not dare to send troops to intervene, and expected that if the United States showed weakness in this matter, or to a certain extent showed that the West's attitude toward China "had a word", the Taiwan independence separatists would feel "chilled".

+1

Xu Zhen: The impact is expected to be short-term only

Xu Zhen pointed out that the situation in Ukraine is unlikely to have a direct impact on Hong Kong, and may cause some financial market instability in the short term.

As for if the situation further deteriorates in the future, European and American countries may impose severe economic sanctions on Russia, and Hong Kong, as a common law region, will be under pressure from the West to implement them together. We can pay attention in the future, but it refers to the scale of business exchanges between Russia and Hong Kong. Limited, and the proportion of Hong Kong's financial market is also very low.

He also pointed out that the current crisis still appears to be a regional conflict, and it is too early to talk about further deterioration into a "new Cold War crisis", and European and American countries obviously do not want military intervention in this matter.

Ukraine has always been regarded as an example of the "color revolution" in the West. Some establishmentists have used this to explain that the social events in Hong Kong in 2019 were a "color revolution" instigated by the West to overthrow the regime.

However, Xu Zhen believes that the situation in the two places is very different. For example, the intelligence connection between the Ukrainian anti-Russian forces and the British and American officials can be said to be "semi-open", and the 2014 incident has a very obvious connection with the West.

Ukraine: The picture shows two soldiers patrolling in Novoluhanske, Udong, on February 23. An old son-in-law passed a building damaged by shells.

(AP)

Liu Zhaojia: If the West believes that China helps Russia to evade sanctions, it will affect Hong Kong in turn

Liu Zhaojia said that at this stage, it seems that the war between Russia and Ukraine has limited impact on Hong Kong.

He explained that the core purpose of Putin's series of actions is to reorganize the world order dominated by the West after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, to reinvigorate Russia into a world power, and to sweep away the pro-Western tendencies of the former Soviet republics, preventing them from becoming the West's way of dealing with Russia. piece.

In the current Ukraine crisis, Putin clearly hopes to overthrow the current pro-Western regime in Ukraine and build a new pro-Russian regime, so as to prevent Ukraine from turning to the West militarily and posing a threat to Russia's borders.

However, it still depends on the extent of Putin's strategic intentions, and whether he plans to re-designate the entire Ukraine into Russian territory. For the time being, there is little chance.

He believes that at present, European and American countries still show that they do not want to use military force against Russia. Because these countries have different interests, many of them have business interests with Russia, especially natural gas imports. Its own military power is vulnerable to Russia, and while European countries are not united, they cannot resist Russia without the help of the United States. But the United States will not send troops to die with Russia, and it does not want its own soldiers to shed blood for Ukraine.” In this situation Under the current situation, the West can only impose economic sanctions on Russia, but the strength is still unknown.

When asked about the impact on China and Hong Kong, Liu Zhaojia pointed out that if the situation further deteriorates, and the United States believes that China has given Russia some kind of support in this incident to help it evade subsequent Western sanctions, it does not rule out that Western countries will have a chance at that time. Hong Kong may be affected by unfriendly actions against China.

However, it is too early to say this. China is currently restraining its position on the Ukraine issue, and it will take time to observe the development of the situation.

Taiwan independence activists realize that the United States is unreliable

Some people are concerned that if the U.S. response to the current situation in Ukraine is not strong enough, it may clear the final psychological obstacle for China's "armed reunification of Taiwan".

Liu Zhaojia believes that the two cannot be directly compared, because the United States and Ukraine have no military agreement or commitment of any kind, and Ukraine has not joined NATO; and the United States currently adopts a vague attitude towards Taiwan, not only recognizing the People's Republic of China as the only legitimate Chinese regime, but also Using the "Taiwan Relations Act" to flirt with the Taiwan side, showing a posture of "if you attack me, I will not sit back and ignore it, but I will not help Taiwan militarily". Therefore, the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the situation in the Taiwan Strait are different in nature. .

Liu Zhaojia analyzed that at present, China does not have a clear tendency to "unify Taiwan by military force", but only indicated that it will not give up this option. Therefore, the United States will not directly "encourage" the military unification of Taiwan just because of its reaction to Russia.

However, from a psychological point of view, if the U.S. fails to assist Ukraine in the end and the sanctions are not effective enough, the Taiwan independence elements will realize that the U.S. security guarantee is not so reliable, as if it were a wake-up call for them.

He pointed out: "Looking at the actions of the United States in recent years, there is no strong intervention in the Crimea incident (Russia took over Crimea in 2014), and the withdrawal of troops in Afghanistan was so embarrassing that it handed over the regime to the Taliban. The Ukrainian issue shows weakness, and Taiwan independence elements will definitely feel chills: Why is the Indo-Pacific strategy very important, the first island chain cannot collapse, it turns out that in the end, they may not keep their promises, and it is up to the 'ally' to 'do it yourself'."

Russian President Vladimir Putin.

(AP)

Situation in Ukraine｜Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs: Regional tensions should be avoided to affect global energy security Belarus accused of supporting Russian army Lukashenko: not participating in Russia’s special military operation against Ukraine an airport near kiev