The renewed nuclear deal with Iran, it seems, is a fait accompli.
If there are no unexpected developments, it will be signed in the coming days in Vienna.
This is bad news for Israel, and bad news for the world;
It requires extensive preparation to thwart the dangerous potential inherent in it.
There are at least five different angles that now require re-examination.
The first concerns the nucleus.
Iran claims it has no interest in a military nuclear capability, but it is lying.
Otherwise, it has no reason to enrich uranium to such levels and quantities, and to conduct various processes whose ultimate goal is one - a bomb (or at least an option for a bomb).
The agreement is expected to stop enrichment by the end of 2025. During that time, Iran will be able to continue researching and developing advanced centrifuges, which it will install later to enrich more material in less time.
It is not yet clear what she will do with the material she has accumulated, when she has enriched uranium in the last two years in violation of the agreement;
In the original agreement, all the enriched material was removed from Iran, but now it may remain in its possession, which will leave a very short distance from reaching the nuclear.
The restrictions contained in the agreement will expire in full at the end of the decade.
Then Iran will be free and happy to do whatever it pleases.
This means that the Americans were disappointed with the original idea of formulating an agreement that would be longer and stronger, and if so - there is no chance or reason that they will succeed in convincing the Iranians (as they tried to explain to their colleagues in Israel) to extend the agreement voluntarily in the future. , Whose main significance is the thawing of billions of dollars, obliges Israel to prepare.
Iranian President Raisi, Photo: IP
Prime Minister Bennett and Defense Minister Ganz said this in various ways, in speeches this week before the Conference of Presidents of Jewish Organizations. The main preparation is military: to arrive the day after the agreement with an effective option, for all that that implies.
In the air, at sea and in the UAV
The second angle is regional.
The agreement increases Iran's ability to spread its evil influence in the region: to quarrel, to torpedo, to blow up.
He also gives her a lot more money and means to do it.
This does not mean that Iran will become an affluent society overnight, but with a collapsing economy and appalling unemployment and poverty rates, it will be able to allow its citizens to raise their heads, which will dull internal criticism that it is turning huge sums to foreign causes.
This means that from now on Iran will stir more, and more aggressively.
In Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and other places.
It would threaten any sane entity in the region - Israeli or Sunni or Western - given Iran's overarching goals: to spread the revolution in the region, to impose Shiites on the Sunni and to destroy the State of Israel.
The way to deal with this strategic threat is in alliances.
Israel is not alone.
While the U.S. home front seems less strong today than it used to be, the fresh partnerships - with the Sunni states in general and the Gulf states in particular, which fear Iran several times over - can and should produce significant counterweight to Iran.
Russia's armored vehicles near the border with Ukraine, Photo: EP
In this regard, Russia's invasion of Ukraine naturally diverts global, and American in particular, attention to the battlefield in Eastern Europe.
For Iran, this is good news: the world has less time and attention, and more concessions can be made until it is signed.
Israel must do everything to prevent this from happening.
The agreement is bad too, it is imperative that under the auspices of the war it does not become even worse.
The third angle is military.
Iran has in recent years become a manufacturing powerhouse of advanced weapons.
Israel warned about this and demanded that it be included in the original nuclear agreement, but this did not happen then, nor will it happen now.
The result: Iran is now a serial manufacturer of rockets and advanced missiles, and in recent years also of unmanned aerial vehicles and cruise missiles of various types and ranges. Evidence of this is given almost daily throughout the region, from the Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and the Emirates to the intensification of Hezbollah.
Last week, two UAVs launched from Iran, possibly from Israel, were also intercepted in Iraq. This is a process that will only be strengthened from now on and requires extensive preparation: In the event that Iran succeeds, directly or through its envoys, in inflicting painful damage on Israel. The fourth angle is secret.
Foreign publications have linked Israel to a variety of actions in recent years: from the elimination of the nuclear projector Muhsin Fahrizadeh, to various damage to the uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and a plant near the production of centrifuges.
Under the agreement, Israel will be limited from harming the sites included in it, but not from operations against other sites, certainly not from the continued intensive activity in the face of Iranian efforts to arm Hezbollah and other organizations in the region.
UAVs on display during Iranian military exercise,
But under Iranian audacity, which is now expected to increase, Israel must take into account that Iran will now feel safer to respond, to challenge, to strike.
The battle between Israel and Iran has been going on all over the globe for years, and will continue to be so in the future: by air and sea, rockets and drones, as well as terrorist attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets around the world.
The Iranians have a variety of reasons and motivations for revenge, and the working assumption must be that they will also try to carry them out. The fifth angle is intra-Israeli security.
The defense system has in recent years become a convenient and very popular punching bag.
Evidence of this was given this week in the Knesset, with the onslaught on Ganz in the context of military pensions.
Ganz is right in the debate - this is a binding arrangement according to the High Court ruling, which increases the chances of leaving good and needed people in the system - but it was enough to see the conduct of some of his government and coalition members to wonder how much they really understand.
The answer to this is simple: there is an endless race between Israel and Iran, in every possible field.
If Israel does not become a cyber power, the Iranians will bypass it and harm it;
And if Israel does not lead in defensive and offensive systems, it will be attacked and pay a price.
It is possible to continue more and more, but the message is clear: whoever does not invest now in Israel's security and in the people who hold it in their hands (and in the head) - will pay in Israel's security in the future.
Preserve the gap
The renewed nuclear deal is bad.
There is no reason or way to beautify it.
But one must now look into it and beyond.
Maintain close monitoring to ensure that Iran does not deviate from it (and, if so, formulate an international mechanism that will re-impose sanctions on it), and build a credible military plan that knows how to provide any kind of response whenever required.
In the medium and long term, Israel is required to formulate a clear strategy vis-à-vis Iran, which under the agreement and the removal of sanctions will return to being a legitimate country in the eyes of most of the world.
It will be a daunting task - the world for the most part cynical and self-interested, and in part also bad - that will force Israel to trample on foot, and sometimes swords, in order to curb Iranian aggression, and often to do it alone.
This mission is vital because it is the only guarantee for halting Iran on all fronts.
For it to succeed, Israel must act with discretion and composure: tighten cooperation with the Americans, form international and regional coalitions, accelerate the development of combat systems and operational plans, reduce the Jewish wars at home, and especially remember that Israel is stronger than Iran in almost every aspect. So that this gap will remain stable in the future as well.
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