Russia and Ukraine are at war and for many Egyptians, Lebanese, Yemenis or other Arabs, that could mean less bread on the family table.
Because these two countries are their first suppliers of wheat.
However, warns the Middle East Institute, "
if the war disrupts the supply of wheat
" to the Arab world, which is heavily dependent on food imports, "
the crisis could trigger new demonstrations and instability in several countries
".
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Sudan, which has seen its reserves melt since the cessation of international aid in retaliation for the military coup at the end of 2021, already seems to be taking the lead.
When the war broke out, the number two Sudanese was in Moscow to discuss trade with Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter.
Because the generals in power in this Arab country of North-East Africa have not forgotten: in 2019, one of their own, the dictator Omar el-Bashir was overthrown under the pressure of a popular revolt born.. . the tripling of the price of bread.
Already very weak countries
Bread is already a luxury for millions of hungry people in war-torn Yemen, laments Walid Salah, a 35-year-old civil servant who is still waiting for his salary in Sanaa.
"
Most people can barely afford basic foodstuffs
," he told AFP.
The war in Ukraine will only “
make things worse
”.
"
We thought we had reached rock bottom, but no, it's even worse
," exclaims David Beasley, Executive Director of the World Food Program (WFP), also in Yemen: "
We get half of our grain from Russia and of Ukraine, this war is going to have a dramatic impact.
»
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The war is also starving 12.4 million Syrians, according to the WFP.
A shame in a country self-sufficient in wheat until 2011 but which, after years of a conflict where Russia helped the regime militarily, had to buy in 2021 “
1.5 million tonnes of wheat, mainly in Moscow
” , according to the specialized site The Syria Report.
Syria says it is now working to distribute the stockpiles for use over two months.
Neighboring Lebanon will not last long after the collapse of the banking system which plunged 80% of the population into poverty and an explosion at the port of Beirut which ripped open grain silos in August 2020. With five ships from Ukraine which still have to unload, "
we only have enough to last a month and a half
," said AFP Ahmed Hoteit, spokesman for Lebanese wheat importers.
Usually, "
80% of the 600,000 to 650,000 tons of wheat imported come from Ukraine
" via boats that arrive in Lebanon in seven days, he said.
The alternative now is the United States“, but then the trip will take 25 days, he adds.
The risks
of "bread riots
"
In the Maghreb, where wheat is the basis of couscous like bread, Morocco has increased subsidies for flour to 350 million euros and suspended wheat customs duties.
A luxury that Tunisia no longer has.
In December, boats refused to unload their cargo of wheat for lack of payment, reported the press in the land of jasmine where the debt is growing as foreign currency reserves melt.
Tunisia, 60% of whose wheat imports come from Ukraine and Russia, has reserves until June, assures Abdelhalim Gasmi, of the Ministry of Agriculture.
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Algeria, it, the second African consumer of wheat and fifth world importer of cereals, announces six months of reserves.
Far ahead, Egypt is the leading importer of wheat in the world.
And the second largest customer from Russia with 3.5 million tonnes purchased until mid-January, according to S&P Global.
And even if in recent years Cairo has started to buy elsewhere, notably in Romania, in 2021, 50% of its wheat imports still came from Russia and 30% from Ukraine.
This week, the government assured that it still had nine months of reserve to feed the 103 million inhabitants with exponential population growth, 70% of whom benefit from five subsidized breads a day.
But to add: "
we will no longer be able to buy at pre-crisis prices
” with wheat at the highest in Chicago for 14 years and at a totally unprecedented peak at 344 euros per tonne on Euronext.
After reducing the weight of the subsidized cake, the government is now considering increasing its price.
In 1977, then-president Anouar al-Sadat did so.
Immediately the "
bread riots
" broke out , which only ceased once the old price was restored.