No matter how you look at it, the Russian invasion of Ukraine does not bode well for Israel's interests, which are concerned with halting Iran's nuclearization and halting its establishment in Syria.
As far as Iran is concerned, the war in Ukraine has come at a perfect time, while according to all estimates the talks on the renewed nuclear deal in Vienna are approaching the decisive moments.
To the displeasure of Israel, the crisis that has arisen diverts global attention from Iran to Europe, and apparently postpones the signing of the nuclear agreement.
On the face of it, Israel does state in a wavy bristle that it is strongly opposed to the agreement because it is full of guys, and in a few years will train the Iranian nuclear;
But in practice, in closed talks, the defense establishment hopes that the agreement will be signed soon so that the Iranian gallop to the core will be halted and monitored - albeit for a short time.
The Israeli plan was to take advantage of the window of time that would be created to allow the defense establishment to buy time, in order to complete the preparations for a possible military operation in Iran.
Recent developments in Ukraine name, as mentioned, in a big question mark the signing of the renewed nuclear agreement with Tehran, as it requires cooperation between the West and Russia.
But it is likely that the expected imposition of severe sanctions on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine will greatly reduce Russia's willingness to cooperate with the West on the Iranian nuclear issue.
Beyond that: the West's conduct in the Ukraine affair may further diminish Iran's willingness, in any case, to flex its positions vis-à-vis the West.
And if that's not enough, the fact that the Western response to Putin's aggressive moves does not radiate determination and power only spurs the Iranians to continue on their own - and undermines US and Western deterrence toward Tehran.
No one is infallible
Russia's success in Ukraine may also give a boost to Russia's grip on the Middle East, which has only grown in recent years.
It cannot be ignored that Jerusalem depends to some extent on Moscow's goodwill to continue its offensive operations against Iranian targets in Syria.
This is, among other things, because Moscow installed advanced air defense systems in the area a few years ago, including its S-300 system, whose capabilities may threaten Israel's air freedom of operation.
So far, the system has been operated only by the Russians, but in Israel in the past they have expressed concern that it will pass into Syrian hands.
Visited Damascus - during the crisis on the borders of Ukraine.
Russian Defense Minister Shoigu with Syrian President Assad in Damascus, a week ago, Photo: IP
Understanding the Russian presence in the region, in recent years Israel has been very careful not to harm Russian interests in the region.
It did not always work, and relations between Moscow and Jerusalem regarding IDF activity in Syria have known ups and downs in recent years. The most serious incident occurred in September 2018, when a Russian plane was shot down by Syrian anti-aircraft fire fired at Israeli fighter jets attacking targets in Syria.
After hard and strenuous diplomatic work, Israel and Russia overcame the crisis, and coordination between them to prevent friction was tightened and precise.
But, as stated, never resilience.
Just a few weeks ago, Russian fighter jets conducted a joint tour with Syrian planes, a fact that led to the question of whether this was a Russian attempt to narrow Israel's steps in the northern region.
In practice, as reported in the foreign media over the past two days, the Russian-Syrian tour did not interfere with Israeli freedom of action in Syria.
All of this will now be questioned, especially after Israel chose a side and sided with Ukraine.
Along with all this, Israel is concerned that the Russian invasion of Ukraine will also be another milestone in the US push from Syria and the entire Middle East, as the US focus on Europe and its problematic relations with China will further reduce its desire to be invested in our region.
Taking a stand has a price
In light of all this, in recent weeks Israel has tried to walk between the drops so as not to upset the Russians and preserve Israeli freedom of action in Syria.
But on Wednesday, on the eve of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Israel issued a statement of support for Ukraine - and the Russian response was not long in coming: Moscow made it clear that it did not recognize Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights.
On Thursday, a few hours after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Israel decided to sharpen the tone even further.
In a brief statement to the media, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid said that "the Russian attack on Ukraine is a serious violation of international order," adding that Israel "condemns the attack, is ready and prepared to provide humanitarian aid to Ukrainian citizens."
One can only hope that the Foreign Ministry has thought things through carefully, as the Russians - known as those who do not forget and do not apply - may change their policy towards Israeli freedom of action in Syria and the entire Middle East.
In such a case, Israel could find itself in a big problem not only because of the Iranian nuclearization that will not be slowed down by an agreement, but also because of the narrowing of its steps and the violation of its freedom of action in the northern region.
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