Ukraine conflict: Beijing's odd role - abstention at UN - but Russian incursion 'not an invasion'?

Created: 02/26/2022, 12:02 p.m

By: Christiane Kuehl

Tough Allies?

China's President Xi Jinping and Russia's Vladimir Putin - here at their meeting in Beijing in early February © Alexei Druzhinin/Itar-TASS/Imago

In the Ukraine conflict, China has been walking a tightrope between open support for Russia and statesmanlike neutrality for days.

In the UN Security Council, Beijing did not agree with Russia.

Beijing/Munich – In United Nations circles, after the failed resolution on the Ukraine conflict* in the UN Security Council, at least one thing is considered a success: China's abstention.

China * – otherwise a close UN partner of the Russians – abstained on Friday evening local time, as did India and the United Arab Emirates.

11 states approved, while over 70 other non-voting countries supported the resolution.

It was already clear that the resolution would fail: Russia, like the USA, China, France and Great Britain, has a right of veto in the Security Council.

The aim of the sponsors of the resolution was therefore to isolate Russia* internationally and to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing.

To this end, the negotiators apparently struggled to come up with a text until shortly before the vote, which Beijing's UN ambassador Zhang Jun did not veto.

The draft resolution, available to the German Press Agency, "strongly condemns" Russia's aggression and reaffirms Ukraine's sovereignty, territorial integrity and unity.

The draft created under the leadership of the USA and Albania calls for the immediate withdrawal of Russia and a return to the Minsk Agreement.

Observers now rated China's voting behavior as a cautious distancing from Russia.

UN Ambassador Zhang Jun said at the meeting: "China is deeply concerned by the recent developments in the situation in Ukraine.

Now we're at a point we don't want to see."

China believes that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states must be respected.

However, Zhang also criticized NATO and said Moscow had legitimate security interests.

China in the Ukraine conflict: Reluctant at the United Nations, research in Beijing

In recent years, Moscow and Beijing have regularly voted together, they are considered an alliance in the UN Security Council.

abstention was therefore considered the maximum target.

In general, however, Beijing had recently acted cautiously, at least at the UN in New York, in the Ukraine conflict.

Zhang Jun, for example, avoided directly defending Russia.

Things are different in Beijing, however.

Above all, the spokesman for the State Department practiced there in continuous fire criticism of the USA* and its sanctions as well as NATO.

On Thursday, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying even managed to deny that the attack was an invasion at all.

It sounded like alternative facts were available in Beijing.

Hua blamed the United States and NATO alone for the conflict.

“The US lit the fire and fanned the flames.

Will they put out the fire now?” Also on Friday, Hua's colleague Wang Wenbin dodged the question of whether it was an invasion in a press conference.

It is clear: if Russia's invasion is an invasion, then China should actually condemn it because of its most important foreign policy principle of the inviolability of the borders of other states.

But that is not possible because of the partnership with Russia: China is in a dilemma.

What was also reflected on Friday in the fact that Wang did not want to be determined as to whether China would also recognize the independence of the Ukrainian rebel provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk.

Ukraine conflict: was China surprised by the Russian army's invasion?

It is unclear whether China was as surprised by Russia's massive attack as much of Europe.

Only the United States, citing its secret services, had been warning of an imminent attack for days.

But the Chinese believed that Putin was just bluffing, wrote Yun Sun, senior fellow at the US think tank Stimson Center.

“They did not anticipate a real invasion by Russia.

From China's perspective, Putin's reckless move had achieved his goals of pushing the US and Europe back to the negotiating table, driving a wedge between NATO allies, inflating energy prices, and preventing NATO expansion.” So they saw none for Putin All the more reason to carry out an invasion and risk severe sanctions, according to the expert.

The US newspaper

confirmed this indirectly.

She reported on Friday about half a dozen previously unknown talks between top US and Chinese officials over the past three months.

The US side presented information showing Russia's troop build-up near Ukraine.

The Chinese have been begged to dissuade Russia from invading, US officials told the newspaper.

But Chinese interlocutors, including Foreign Minister Wang Yi and UN Ambassador Zhang Jun, have always rejected the request, not believing an invasion is in the works.

Then, in December, US officials received information that Beijing had passed information shared during the talks to Moscow, according to the report.

Ukraine conflict: Xi Jinping speaks with Putin - as the only one

China maintained the direct channel to Moscow throughout the crisis.

China's President Xi Jinping* was among the first to hear about Ukraine's offer of talks on Friday.

While the Russian attack on Kiev was in full swing on Friday afternoon, the state newspaper

suddenly tweeted about a phone call by Xi with Russian President Vladimir Putin*.

Why both spoke was initially unclear.

Did Xi want to pledge his support to his counterparts who have been ostracized across the West since the invasion?

A little later it was clear: Xi spoke to Putin about the fact that Russia had received an offer of talks from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

According to state broadcaster

, Xi called on Russia to start negotiations during the talks.

"China is supporting Russia and Ukraine to resolve the matter through negotiations," Xi said in the conversation with Putin.

He then declared that Russia was ready for "high-level" talks with Ukraine*.

Xi also said that it is important to "abandon the cold war mentality" and "pay attention to the legitimate security concerns of all countries."

What is needed is a "balanced, effective and sustainable European security mechanism".

These formulations are not new;

Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the same thing to his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov.

However, CCTV

effectively portrayed Xi as a mediator in the bloody conflict. This is not implausible, as an end to hostilities would relieve China of its dilemma.

"I am not aware of any evidence that Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party really tried to end the war," said Russia-China expert Joe Webster.

Maybe because Xi didn't even expect an attack?

Did Putin also fool Xi at the summit of the two on the opening day of the Olympics?

Webster rather suspects that Xi was primarily concerned with avoiding an attack during the Olympic Games in Beijing *.

Like so many other things, it is unknown whether China's head of state raised the issue in Beijing.

China in the Ukraine conflict: What's next?

The fact that China abstained from the UN Security Council is a sign that it does not want to join the pariahs of the world community.

A veto would have put China in a corner.

But what's next?

First of all, there is now a vote in the UN General Assembly, where a simple majority is sufficient for the adoption of the resolution.

China will later have to decide whether to silently support Western sanctions against Russia, as it did in 2014.

For example, China could help Russia with financing in the local currency, the yuan.

But that carries a high risk of non-payment if Russia's economy suffers from the sanctions.

It will also further damage China's opportunities to cooperate economically with Europe, for example.

Beijing has repeatedly criticized the new sanctions - probably from a mix of fundamental rejection and anger about the decisions that are now necessary.

So far, however, China has not commented on its approach in connection with the sanctions.

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