How dangerous is Putin's nuclear threat?

Created: 02/28/2022, 19:25

Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock: Putin's threat should be taken seriously.

© John Macdougall/AFP POOL/dpa

Russian nuclear weapons on increased alert: This news brings back memories of the darkest days of the Cold War.

How big is the risk of nuclear war?

Moscow/Berlin - Russian President Vladimir Putin did not say the word nuclear weapons.

But the alert he ordered for "weapons of deterrence" has been understood worldwide as a threat to the nuclear arsenal.

It came a day after the Western allies agreed on further tough economic sanctions - and Germany, as another of the now numerous NATO countries, announced arms deliveries to Ukraine.

What does being on alert actually mean?

Russia's nuclear weapons are basically always ready for use.

Now Putin has had the strategic deterrent weapons, including nuclear ones, put on increased combat readiness.

This is the second stage before full combat readiness, says Major General Boris Solovyov of the newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda, who himself used to be in the relevant armed forces.

"Then the 'red button' can be pressed at any moment."

Instead of a red button, Russia has nuclear suitcases, of which there are three - in addition to Putin at the defense minister and at the chief of staff.

"This system serves as a safeguard against any mistake in the use of nuclear weapons," says Solovyov.

The strategic missile troops, the Northern and Pacific fleets and the long-distance aviation forces were specifically put on combat readiness.

How does Putin justify this step?

He cites "aggressive" statements by NATO leaders as the reason.

Putin speaks of the country's "self-defence".

From the Russian point of view, this is a defensive measure in case the US exercises its right of first strike enshrined in military doctrine.

Putin keeps reminding us that the US has used nuclear weapons against cities, but Russia never.

Russia's doctrine provides for only defensive use of these weapons.

The military expert Boris Solovyov explains that with his decree, Putin reminded that Russia will defend itself if the state is also attacked with other weapons or sees its existence in danger.

How serious is Putin's threat to be taken?

The threat is to be taken very seriously.

This was also said on Sunday and Monday by representatives of NATO countries, including Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.

In his speech at the beginning of the war against Ukraine, Putin said that nobody should dare to attack Russia.

He also sees the historically unprecedented sanctions as an attack.

In 2018 he once said: “The aggressor should know that retaliation is inevitable.

And then we go to paradise as martyrs, and they just perish before they even manage to show remorse.”

When was the last time there was such a nuclear alert?

According to US military historian James Acton, the last time such a situation existed was 50 years ago.

"The last time that happened in a crisis between the US and Russia or the Soviet Union was during the Yom Kippur War in 1973. At that time, the US issued such a warning," he told Der Spiegel.

The Yom Kippur War was one of several wars between Israel and Arab states in the Middle East conflict.

How is NATO reacting?

So far, NATO has been exercising restraint.

Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg described Putin's announcement as "irresponsible" and called for the unity of the NATO countries.

However, the Norwegian avoided any rhetorical escalation.

In addition, it is not NATO itself that has nuclear weapons, but the three alliance states USA, France and Great Britain.

After talks with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, Stoltenberg reiterated that "every ally and every inch of Allied territory will be defended".

How is the US reacting?

Outwardly remarkably quiet.

In his first speech after the start of the war, US President Joe Biden did not explicitly react to Putin's threat to the West - and to his reference to Russia's nuclear capacities.

So far, Biden has also not reacted publicly to Putin's order to actually put the nuclear power's deterrent weapons on increased alert.

The US President does not seem inclined to engage in a rhetorical escalation spiral of this magnitude with Putin - unlike his predecessor Donald Trump, who did not shy away from sending out nuclear threats against North Korea via Twitter.

Biden, on the other hand, is trying to de-escalate.

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The White House and the US Department of Defense assure us that the US has all the necessary capabilities to defend itself.

And the Pentagon emphasizes that in principle it does not comment on a possible change in its own alertness.

But public reluctance does not mean the US is idle behind the scenes.

How many nuclear weapons face each other in Europe?

At the beginning of 2021, the Sipri peace research institute counted a total of 13,080 nuclear weapons worldwide, almost 12,000 of them in the hands of the USA (5500) and Russia (6255).

That's significantly fewer than at the height of the Cold War, when there were around 70,000.

But the nuclear weapons are now more modern and powerful.

There is no official information on how many nuclear weapons are stationed in Europe.

According to estimates by the US research institute Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, around 100 US nuclear weapons are stored in five European NATO countries: Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy and Turkey.

In addition, according to Sipri, Britain has 225 nuclear weapons and France has 290.

What is the range of Russian nuclear missiles?

Russia has missiles of all ranges.

For years, Putin has been letting the long-range bombers, which can be equipped with nuclear warheads, circle the globe again and again.

The ICBMs fly over 10,000 kilometers.

The Sarmat ICBMs (NATO code name: SS-X-30 Satan 2) have a range of 18,000 kilometers.

This allows Russia to attack both the North and South Pole and reach targets worldwide.

How many nuclear weapons are there in Germany?

In the 1980s there were still 7,000 nuclear weapons stationed in both parts of Germany.

According to expert estimates, there are now 15 to 20 US bombs left stored at the Büchel air base in the Eifel.

There is no official information about this.

However, it is an open secret that these are B61-4 type bombs.

They are 3.58 meters long, look like small rockets and have an explosive force of up to 50 kilotons - four times as much as the bomb that reduced the Japanese city of Hiroshima to rubble almost 80 years ago.

What role would Germany have in a nuclear war?

The Büchel bombs are Germany's participation in NATO's nuclear deterrent.

Should they be used, Bundeswehr fighter jets would transport them to the target and drop them.

Top politicians from all three coalition parties have repeatedly called for these bombs to be removed from Germany.

This discussion is likely to have ended with the paradigm shift in foreign and security policy implemented by Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

How likely do experts think the situation will escalate?

"It's verbal saber-rattling," nuclear weapons expert Hans Kristensen told the New York Times.

He emphasizes: “We will see where he (Putin) steers with it.

This war is only four days old and it has already made two threats of nuclear weapons.” Matthew Kroenig, also a researcher on nuclear weapons, tells the newspaper: “States with nuclear weapons cannot go to nuclear war because that would risk annihilation, but they can They threaten and do it." It's a kind of game to increase the risk of war, "in the hopes that the other side will back down and say, 'Oh dear, waging a nuclear war isn't worth it. '" dpa