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Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) visiting the Bundeswehr Operations Command
Photo: Michael Kappeler / dpa
When habit is overtaken by reality, it sounds like this: »We are experiencing a turning point.
And that means: The world after is no longer the same as the world before.« This is how Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz put it in the Bundestag a week ago.
Turning point, this word stuck.
The war makes a new policy necessary and, at least for a brief moment, in which the force of the new reality still has an effect, it also makes a fundamentally new policy possible.
And with his government statement, Scholz gave the impression that he would now ensure this new policy.
But is that actually true?
If a turning point means that systems get into a new state, then a turning point policy is not simply a continuation of the previous policy with more resources, but a fundamentally different policy.
In which questions, which have arisen since the Russian attack on Ukraine, is a fundamentally different policy emerging – and in which is it not?
military and arms supplies
The fact that Scholz's sentence about the turning point in time became a formula so quickly is mainly due to these three other sentences of his speech:
"We will set up a special fund for the Bundeswehr."
»The federal budget for 2022 will provide this special fund with a one-off amount of 100 billion euros.«
»From now on we will invest more than 2 percent of the gross domestic product in our defense every year.«
Nobody knows exactly what form the special fund will take and how the Bundeswehr's structural problems can be solved, but the Chancellor has made it clear that he is not interested in gradual changes, not just more money, but a new situation .
A phase of military restraint ends.
The government had previously announced that it would send anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine.
Germany is now delivering to a warring party because otherwise they would not be able to defend themselves.
This also ends a period of distance from one's own army.
With a single speech, the chancellor created a new defense policy.
The Brunnenbauer Bundeswehr with flightless helicopters and imprecise rifles is to be rapidly turned into a fighting force, because the perpetual peace that was taken for granted has become an acute threat.
refugees and integration
In a quick response to the plight of hundreds of thousands of people fleeing, the EU activated its emergency mechanism for the first time to enable quick and uncomplicated admission.
Ukrainians who come to the EU do not have to go through an asylum procedure.
They get immediate protection, they are allowed to work, they are covered by social insurance.
Crossing the border is not made more difficult, nor is access to work and social systems.
Overall, refugee policy in these early days does not follow the idea that further fleeing should be deterred;
it is thought of by those people who are already here, not by those who could yet come.
In this respect, it is currently a matter of a fundamentally new approach to flight in Europe.
On the other hand, this mechanism has been around for a long time and is designed to be temporary, intended as an exception.
If desired, it can be suspended again.
Then the system jumps back to its previous state.
That's the way it's supposed to be.
And the fact that nothing else in the system will change is indicated by the fact that so far nothing has changed in dealing with other refugees from other conflicts, from other countries, on other EU borders.
public finances and taxes
Negotiations on the 100 billion special fund are still ongoing.
But two things are already clear: First, the special fund serves to circumvent the debt brake.
Second, the debt brake will remain in effect for the time being.
There should even be a repayment plan for the special fund.
This certainty should be maintained.
A second certainty of this coalition, or more precisely: the FDP, has so far remained untouched - there is no talk of tax increases.
As energy prices skyrocket, as inflation begins jittery debates, as a new price hike relief package is considered, as a global economy battered by two years of pandemics and mounting supply chain problems plunges into renewed crisis, politics appears to be at a turning point State finances and taxes not to be touched at all.
Russian influences
The Russian government has systematically expanded its own influence over the past two decades.
Through propaganda media, the involvement of state-owned companies in Western companies, through lobbying and the buying of people with influence, through networks that have no longer created understanding, but deliberate lack of understanding.
If these influences were systematically identified and pushed back (which is very different from threatening Russian restaurants or holding all Russians accountable), one could speak of a policy of a turning point in history.
With the aim of preventing partisans of a dictator from distorting the public debate in the future and making this society open to blackmail.
It doesn't look like that at the moment.
Dealing with Gerhard Schröder, the gas lobbyist and former chancellor, makes that clear.
Schröder has been loyal to Putin for years and is always being paid for in new positions by Russian state-related corporations.
But the SPD leadership is constantly urging and asking Schröder to break away after all.
Even after more than a week of war, they still seem willing to keep him in their ranks - as if it wasn't clear where he stood.
Of course, there are small measures that fit a policy of turning the tide: The ban on Russian state broadcasters like RT and Sputnik in the EU fits this pattern.
The fact that several states have now confiscated yachts from billionaires, too.
On the other hand, these actions are reaching their limits because the system winners and system carriers in Russia can hide behind letterbox companies and governors in tax havens.
Changing times would mean fundamentally questioning the system of letterbox companies and governors.
Nothing of that can be seen.
Energy, heat, climate, transport
In his government statement, Scholz linked armaments and energy to the security issue and he promised measures to ensure energy security.
In fact, Germany's dependence on fossil fuels is currently securing the Russian state's most important source of income.
In the worst case, millions of Germans could be left out in the cold next winter if Putin then turns off the gas.
Apart from that, Germany is still missing its own climate targets anyway, which in turn already miss the 1.5 degree target of the Paris Agreement.
So there are enough reasons for a quick turnaround policy.
In armaments policy, he used the drama of the moment and the shocking realization that the Bundeswehr was not prepared for a war with Russia for a fundamental change of direction.
He hammered in stakes, he secured a lot of money, although so far it is only vaguely foreseeable how it will be spent.
None of that happened in energy policy.
Scholz left it at rather general (rapid expansion of renewable energies) and smaller announcements (build two liquid gas terminals, create national gas and coal reserves).
The fact that coal will become more important for a few years, that Europe may also have to be promoted again, that there is talk of extending the life of nuclear power plants, are the only real signs of a policy that is about to change.
There will of course be more money for the energy transition.
The Ministry of Economics is developing a package of measures.
The debate is on.
But there is no special fund for the heat transition.
There is no announcement to stop the installation of gas heating in homes and offices as soon as possible.
There is no special heat pump program.
There is, neither in the federal government nor in the federal states, a movement away from the car (and the rising fuel prices) towards public transport or the bicycle;
no car-free cities, no free public transport, no speed limit against Putin.
When it comes to dealing with fossil energies, it looks like the current policy will continue with slightly more resources.
An ecological policy of a turning point is currently not in sight.