Patricia Bolinches
Vladimir Putin's order to put Russia's deterrent forces, that is, its nuclear weapons, on alert and on "combat duty", has had an effect possibly different from the intended one: it has opened the space for the countries of the Union Europe and NATO, including Spain, send even more conventional weapons to Ukraine, not only defensive, but offensive, because it has placed the moral dilemma that implies the use of atomic weapons on Moscow's side.
What is that threat?
Will Putin put it into practice if Europe sends Kiev too many anti-aircraft batteries, perhaps if the Ukrainian Armed Forces receives too many drones, or will he reserve it just in case he concludes that he is not able to bring about regime change in Europe fast enough? Ukraine by “conventional” means?
Putin may not mind putting himself in an indefensible moral position by claiming the will to strike a first nuclear strike, but it is also very likely that most Russian citizens will find such a prospect unbearable.
And as much as the repressive mechanisms of the Kremlin try to blind all independent sources of information, there will always be loopholes, The audience of the BBC website explained this Thursday that the audience of its website in Russian has gone from being visited by 3 .1 million people to 10.7 million in recent days.
In English, visitors to bbc.com in Russia increased by 252%.
Little by little, professional and truthful information penetrated into Putin's territory as well.
The new censorship rules (15 years in prison for those who violate them) will make everything more difficult,
but the BBC has already explained the safe way in which those looking for it can find it.
(Warning to the British Conservative government which has been criticizing the public broadcaster for some time and trying to cut its funding and reduce its staff: the BBC's world service proves again and again that it is one of the few truly effective international instruments in time to defend democracy).
The appearance of the President of the Government before Congress last Wednesday and his announcement that finally Spain will also send offensive weapons to Ukraine contributed little to the debate.
Perhaps verifying that the Popular Party practices a more reasonable opposition when it lacks a leader and that United We Can continues to be confused.
Vice President Yolanda Díaz understands that the ministers cannot publicly disagree with her president without presenting her resignation at the same time, but the head of Social Rights, Ione Belarra, has not yet caught on and strongly disagreed .
Our country does not have to send weapons, but rather go through diplomatic channels, she said.
How long to resist if it is almost certain that you will end up defeated?
It is a reasonable question that has been asked in many other war scenes, but it is not Mrs. Belarra who has to say how far the Ukrainians must resist, no matter how ineffective she considers their fight.
They are the only ones with a voice to say how far it is worth defending themselves with weapons.
As long as they consider it so, the obligation of others is to provide them with all they need.
It is likely that the Russian troops sent by Putin will be able to enter Kiev in a few days or a few weeks, but it is also likely that the Ukrainians are showing that they are a different nation from Russia and that the current resistance can be crushed, but that the war can last much longer.
Nothing is ruled out yet.
Putin can still convince himself that Russia will be bogged down in Ukraine for years and accept a security negotiation, not starting from the unconditional surrender of the aggressor, but from the withdrawal of the aggressor (at least, where he was on February 24).
Or not.
Putin may be willing to maintain a years-long war to annex all of Ukraine.
It may be that his strategy seeks the destruction of the European Union, encouraging and financing extreme right-wing populisms, and that he is betting that, if he holds out long enough, the others will end up dividing.
He may consider making good on his nuclear threat.
But Russia may also discover that it cannot live with Putin, because the economic cost of the sanctions is and will be brutal and not for months, but for years,
and that the united European Union is capable (always was) of hosting two million refugees and resisting its own crises and pressure from its own companies.
Nothing is decided.
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