FSB leak or propaganda?

Ukraine war is disastrous for Russia

Created: 07/03/2022, 20:19

By: Tim Vincent Dicke

A supposed FSB document appears on the Internet.

Accordingly, the Ukraine war is said to be an absolute catastrophe for Russia – including for Vladimir Putin.

Moscow – Russia's President Vladimir Putin is acting headless, the Ukraine war is a disaster and the atmosphere in the Moscow apparatus is bad.

This picture draws a supposed Russian intelligence report that could have great explosive power.

Or not?

The authenticity of the paper has not yet been definitively verified.

The report was written by an alleged employee of the domestic secret service FSB.

The letter, shared on Facebook by Russian human rights activist Vladimir Osechkin, who lives in France, says "no one knew there would be such a war, they hid it from everyone." There had been reports about it before that many Russian soldiers were sent to Ukraine*, although they were not informed about the war.

Alleged FSB agent sees black for Putin's Russia in the Ukraine war

Putin's plan to take Ukraine in a hurry failed*.

Since the beginning of the invasion, countless photos and videos on social networks have shown Russian planes and helicopters shot down, tanks destroyed and large numbers of troops lost.

That's how the alleged FSB agent sees it.

“The blitzkrieg failed.

It is simply impossible to accomplish the task now: if Zelenskyy* and the government officials were captured in the first day or three and all important buildings in Kyiv* were confiscated and the order to surrender read to them – yes, then it would be resistance has fallen to a minimum.” However, bringing Ukraine under Putin's control is now hardly feasible.

Russian President Vladimir Putin: Does he have an unsolvable problem because of the Ukraine war?

© Mikhail Klimentyev/dpa

Even if the Russian army takes over all of Ukraine, the supposed FSB man sees black.

The country can hardly be governed by pro-Russian officials.

There is simply no capacity for it.

“Where should we get so many people from?

Command, military police, counterintelligence, security guards - even with minimal resistance from the local population, we need 500,000 or more people," the letter said.

Secret service leak on the Ukraine war?

If Russia loses, "it's over for us"

The letter speaks of an exponential increase in Ukrainian civilian casualties.

The Russian military shelled the cities of Kharkiv and Mariupol in particular – with artillery and from the air.

Civilian objects such as blocks of flats are often hit*.

Despite assurances from the Russian military leadership that no civilians would be fired upon.

But why are the troops acting so cruelly?

The alleged secret service agent writes: "We have already tried to enter cities with infantry - only one of twenty airborne troops was partially successful."

Overall, there is no way out of the situation.

"There's just no way to win, and if we lose, it's over for us," it says with a view to Russia*, and further: "I don't know who came up with the idea of ​​the 'Ukrainian Blitzkrieg'.

Now we're up to our necks in shit.

And no one knows what to do.”

Ukraine war: does Putin no longer rule out a nuclear strike?

In the current situation, the alleged FSB agent no longer categorically rules out a nuclear strike by Russia.

Not to achieve a military goal.

Rather, the use of nuclear weapons would serve to intimidate.

Care must be taken here to ensure that the military differentiates between strategic nuclear bombs, which can destroy entire regions, and tactical nuclear weapons, which are less destructive.

The latter weapon could be used by Vladimir Putin* to strike fear and panic in the world.

For example over the sea.

“The use of such weapons (...) has a high psychological effect despite the low level of damage.

Putin will rely on that if such weapons are actually used," said the director of the Center for International Security at the Hertie School, Marina Henke, to the editorial network Germany.

However, the use of nuclear weapons is still considered extremely unlikely.

Even the alleged agent does not believe that "Putin will press the red button to destroy the whole world".

There is no such unique button at all and in an emergency at least one military in the chain of command would mutiny.

Above all, however, Putin does not want to sacrifice himself in a nuclear war: "If you are afraid to let your closest confidants near you, how dare you destroy yourself and your loved ones?"

FSB paper on Ukraine war could also be propaganda

Christo Grozev from the Bellingcat research platform classifies the document as genuine.

“I showed the letter to two (...) FSB contacts and they had no doubt that it was written by a colleague.

They didn't agree with all of his conclusions, but that's another story," the investigative journalist wrote on Twitter.

The editor-in-chief of the Heute-Journal (ZDF) explained on the short message service: "If that's authentic, then Putin has gambled away!" The descriptions in the letter would sound plausible - military experts had also expressed similar assumptions in his TV magazine.

However, the document should not be blindly believed.

“Why would an FSB official reveal that?

Wishful thinking of those attacked?

Propaganda?

In any case, it should be noted.” Ultimately, only Russian activist Vladimir Osechkin knows the source behind the paper.

Not all experts assume that Putin miscalculated his strategy in the Ukraine war.

(tvd)