This is unheard of since the 2008 crisis. The barrel of brent oil, the main reference on the world market, came close to 140 dollars overnight from Sunday to Monday, a handful of greenbacks from the absolute record of 147.50 dollars reached in July 2008. In an extremely nervous market, black gold had fallen by the end of the afternoon to around 125 dollars, a level not seen since the Libyan war of 2011.
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This new outbreak was fueled by the threat of an imminent embargo on Russian hydrocarbons brandished by Washington.
While the House of Representatives examines a bill aimed at banning imports of gas and oil from Russia, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is busy convincing his European counterparts to draw this heavy economic weapon.
In the wake of crude, natural gas also smashed records, touching, on the European market in Rotterdam, 300 euros per megawatt hour, fifteen times more than a year earlier.
The oil and gas embargo was on the agenda of the conference call proposed Monday at the end of the day by Joe Biden to Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz and Boris Johnson.
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The goal is to hit Moscow in the wallet.
Even more than gas, which brought in some $50 billion in export earnings to Russia last year, oil is the major source of foreign exchange, with crude oil amounting to $110 billion and refined petroleum products.
But an embargo on hydrocarbons “
is a double-edged sword
,” recalls Antoine Rostand, president of Kayrros, an energy data analysis company.
The severity of injuries for boycotting countries will differ depending on their degree of dependence on Russian energy.
Refusal of the German Chancellor
The United States, the world's largest oil producer, can do without Russian oil, which represents only 3% of its imports.
This figure reaches 8% for the United Kingdom, whose Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, declared himself in favor of an embargo, while understanding the difficulties it would pose to the European Union.
Because Russian crude represents more than a quarter of the imports of the Twenty-Seven, an average masking significant differences.
For France, it is less than 9% but for Germany almost 40%.
Hence the refusal of an embargo expressed by Olaf Scholz.
Fossil energy imports from Russia are '
essential
' for the '
daily life of citizens'
in Europe and the supply of the continent cannot be assured otherwise at this stage, summed up the German Chancellor on Monday in an admission of helplessness.
Lacking Western unity, Washington was preparing to declare the embargo against Russian oil alone, Reuters understands, citing two sources.
Whether the freezing of the Russian hydrocarbon trade is partial or not, whether it is decreed by Moscow within the framework of counter-sanctions, it does not matter, analysts foresee a lasting surge in prices.
The American bank JPMorgan evokes a barrel at 185 dollars at the end of the year, Bank of America dares 200 dollars.