Putin biographer on the Ukraine war: "The conflicts will last for a long time"

Created: 03/08/2022, 17:57

By: Alexander Eser-Ruperti

A glimmer of hope in the war: reports of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are increasing.

But where can they lead?

Hubert Seipel in an interview.

Kyiv - The situation in the Ukraine war is still dramatic - and therefore highly emotional.

It is difficult to take a sober look at the events, but it is necessary when it comes to possible solutions.

Recently, there have been growing indications of an imminent meeting between Russia and Ukraine.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his counterpart Dmytro Kuleba want to start direct negotiations on Ukraine's future.

Ukraine war: Vladimir Putin's biographer sees only one way out in the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia

But where can these talks lead, what are currently realistic possibilities for an end to the war?

In an interview with kreiszeitung.de, the renowned journalist and Putin biographer Hubert Seipel gave his assessment.

With a view to the situation in Ukraine, Seipel currently sees only one solution: As far as Vladimir Putin is concerned, he believes that he will also have to pay a high price for the Ukraine war domestically.

Mr. Seipel, do you see a solution to the Ukraine conflict?

If so, what might this look like?

The price of the conflict will be a neutral status for Ukraine, like Austria or Finland were after World War II, and Donbass autonomy.

This will hit Ukraine itself very hard and the conflicts will continue for a very long time.

But I don't see any other solution at the moment.

We took things too lightly.

In what way?

We have to ask ourselves if we haven't seen that this country is overwhelmed when it has to choose between Europe and Russia;

whether we underestimated the determination of Russia, which has close ties to Ukraine economically, but also historically and emotionally.

That was what the then Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier put on record in 2013, and he was right.

War in Ukraine: The renowned journalist and Putin biographer Hubert Seipel currently sees only one solution for peace in Ukraine.

(Iconic image) © Antti Yrjönen/Antti Yrjönen/dpa

The Ukrainians show a lot of patriotism and national pride in the fight against the overwhelming Russian military.

How likely do you think a long-term occupation of Ukraine by Russia is?

Is Putin even threatened with a longstanding trouble spot in the form of a resistance movement?

The fact that there will be resistance is not only shown by the reports about the recruitment of American or British mercenaries that are currently doing the rounds.

But many Ukrainians who are Western-oriented will remain so.

This is the political explosive device.

Nevertheless, in my opinion there is probably no other solution for the near future to de-escalate.

What Tolstoy said more than a hundred years ago applies.

Everyone wants to change the world, but nobody wants to change themselves. Not even Putin.

What chance of actual self-determination can there be for Ukraine between Russia and the West in the future?

None in the foreseeable future, based on my assessment of the situation.

Hubert Seipel on the Ukraine war: "The biggest problem in life is reality"

“Putin understander” was considered defamation even before Russia launched a war of aggression in Ukraine.

There can be no sympathy for the military aggression, but: can one, in the serious interest of peace, avoid dealing with the Russian positions and how they came about?

Understanding is the journalistic prerequisite for a rational examination of the interests and the reasons and goals of the other person.

That doesn't mean you share them.

If all you do is make creeds because you're on the right side, you can forget about the job.

And if you confuse attitude with putting on a steel helmet and going into the journalistic trenches to avoid being considered a collaborator, you may have a better life and feel comfortable but missed the profession. 

Images from the war also trigger horror and anger in me.

You are powerless against it, but these emotions cannot ignore the question of how and why it could come to this.

A few months ago, ARD put the 2009 film “Leben und Die für Kabul” back on the program, when the Americans shocked us by simply withdrawing from Afghanistan without asking us as allies.

I predicted back then that we were wrong in defending our freedom in the Hindu Kush and that we would not win either. 

Renowned journalist and author of several books: Hubert Seipel in 2016 together with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

© Mikhail Klimentyev/Sputnik/Kremlin

What does that mean specifically?

I can't really relate to the idea that says: anyone who doubts our position is a traitor and is working for the enemy.

The biggest problem in life is reality, wrote an English analyst.

And it hurts, but you mustn't just lose yourself in outrage because you believe you're on the right side.

Ukraine conflict: sanctions hit Russia hard – “Putin will pay a domestic price”

In war there is always talk of a defensive war.

The narrative of Putin and his war of aggression is similar.

What are the reactions to the war in Russia, how much is this narrative style followed?

War is always breaking a taboo.

The narrative that each side is waging a struggle forced upon them by the other is justification on both sides for a situation that wasn't only foreseeable since the Maidan coup.

Until shortly before the war, Putin was by far the most popular politician with 73 percent.

The sanctions will hit people hard.

In Russia, the domestic political climate has already worsened.

Putin will pay a domestic price for this.

Anyone who was born in 2000 knows only Vladimir Putin as a Russian president.

In any case, since the Maidan coup and the Crimean crisis, his image abroad has become irreparable.

What are the possibilities of an end to the war in which all sides, including Putin, would save face?

Only one for the foreseeable future: Ukraine's neutrality.

Wars are not only always a breach of taboo, they also know almost only losers among a large part of the population - the Ukraine war is no exception.

On the path that Hubert Seipel outlines, for the time being there is no room for actual self-determination of Ukraine between Russia and the West, the situation is deadlocked.

The currently planned talks between the two conflicting parties are a small glimmer of hope for peace in a situation that is unlikely to result in a satisfactory solution for the Ukrainians - and probably for a long time to come.

Hubert Seipel is a German journalist and award-winning documentary filmmaker.

The political scientist wrote for Stern and worked for Der Spiegel as a foreign correspondent.

He conducted the world's first television interview with whistleblower Edward Snowden, which was broadcast by ARD on January 26, 2014.

The journalist has already written several books about Vladimir Putin.

(This is part one of a two-part interview) * kreiszeitung.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA.