The Ukraine War and the Gas Market: How Consumers Can Respond Now

Created: 03/09/2022, 06:30

By: Andreas Steppan

Many a customer throws anxious glances at his gas meter these days.

Buying a small wood stove can't hurt "Initiating the energy transition was the right way" © dpa

Rely on self-sufficiency: From the point of view of regional suppliers in Bad Tölz-Wolfratshausen, this is the right way to react to the consequences of the war on the gas market - on a small and large scale.

Bad Tölz-Wolfratshausen

– Could the war in Ukraine cause the heating in German households to go out?

This is a question that many people are currently asking – after all, a large part of the gas in this country comes from Russia.

The regional providers are giving the all-clear, at least for this winter.

In general, however, it is now more important than ever to become independent of Russian gas.

In this respect, according to Stadtwerke Bad Tölz and Erdgas Südbayern (ESB), the individual can also prepare a bit.

“Every household customer will have a warm home this winter”

"Physically we have no shortage," says the head of the Tölzer Stadtwerke, Walter Huber, when asked about the security of supply.

"The Russian trading partners keep to their contractual deliveries." Claudia Torterotot, Head of Sales for Private Customers and Marketing at ESB, also reassures: "As things stand at present, every household customer will have a warm apartment this winter." reach into a bottleneck situation.

Household customers and facilities such as hospitals are particularly protected by legal provisions.

But Torterotot also says: “If deliveries from Russia fail at short notice, that will be a major challenge.” Because Russia currently contributes more than 50 percent of the gas consumed in Germany.

"In southern Germany, natural gas has so far come almost entirely from Russian sources." As an alternative, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is currently being increasingly supplied via large tankers from the USA.

Head of Stadtwerke Bad Tölz: Heating costs could rise exorbitantly in 2023

Do customers have to adjust to rising gas prices?

"The prices will be reflected with a delay," says Huber.

Procurement prices have been very high for four months now.

Thanks to long-term supply contracts, Stadtwerke can still avoid price increases for end customers this year.

But that can no longer be maintained if gas purchases remain so expensive.

Huber believes it is realistic not just for Stadtwerke customers, but for Germany as a whole if the annual heating costs for an average single-family home increase by 800 euros and electricity costs by 600 euros in 2023.

But because this would contain considerable social explosives, Huber expects political measures to cushion such a price explosion.

Increasing the down payment for the gas can make sense

Torterotot describes the situation similarly.

Gas procurement prices had already reached a “previously unknown level” in the last quarter of 2021.

"The Russian invasion of Ukraine has also significantly increased short-term price fluctuations." Price increases could occur in particular if less gas were supplied from Russia.

But Torterotot also names “legislative countermeasures” and LNG deliveries as factors that could dampen the price.

Should customers already increase the down payment for the gas to prevent a high back payment in the annual bill?

Not if you have a fixed-price tariff that guarantees the agreed price within the contractual period, says Torterotot.

With other tariffs it is "in any case sensible to also look at the amount of the advance payments".

The prices for the public utilities are stable this year, says Huber.

For households where the gas bill is handled by the property management company, an increase in the down payment could make sense "to cushion a nasty surprise".

Advice from the Tölz expert: get a small wood stove

As a reaction to the current situation, the individual still has “an economical and responsible use of energy” – that “always makes sense”, says Torterotot.

Huber also advises becoming as independent as possible when it comes to heat supply – even if it is only by purchasing a small wood-burning stove.

However, the method of turning down the gas heater and turning on an electric fan heater instead does not work.

According to Huber, the power consumption is too high.

According to the ESB sales manager, the end customer does not have the option of deliberately forgoing Russian gas.

"So far there is no designation of origin for conventional natural gas." The only short-term alternative is at most biogas products.

According to Torterotot, the origin of the gas can be guaranteed at least.

Huber also makes it clear that the Russian gas cannot be filtered out of what comes out of the gas tap.

"Initiating the energy transition was the right thing to do"

However, the Stadtwerke boss expects that many will look around for alternatives to gas.

According to his forecast, connections to local heating networks will be “in greater demand than ever before”.

Insulating your own house well pays off more than ever.

And a photovoltaic system for personal use would also make sense.

"Investing in self-sufficiency was and is the right thing to do," says Huber.

"That applies to small things as well as big ones.

It would also have been the right way for the Federal Republic.

Initiating the energy transition was the right thing to do.”

Torterotot is also certain: “We must become significantly less dependent on fossil fuels.

In the case of renewable energies in particular, it must finally be clear that obstacles to the approval and implementation of projects must be a thing of the past.”

Stadtwerke boss Huber had recently attuned consumers to rising electricity prices.

Bad-Tölz-Newsletter: Everything from your region!

Our Bad Tölz newsletter regularly informs you about all the important stories from the Bad Tölz region - including all the news about the Corona crisis in your community.

Sign up here.