"Ukraine wins the war, but only on Twitter, not on the battlefield."
This is a general assessment of Prof. Stephen Kotkin, the number one expert in the United States on Russia, and the various ways of tyranny that have characterized this country throughout history.
The missile bombing at the Yavoriv military base yesterday morning, in which nearly 200 people were injured, of whom 35 were killed, took place on the front to which the war has so far not reached.
The Yavoriv base is located near the city of Leviv, the largest western city in Ukraine.
According to the response of the President of Poland, Auntie, it is clear that the Poles see the firing of missiles as a threat to their country, and the warnings about the use of chemical weapons are growing.
These warnings join various signals from Putin from the first week of the war, about his willingness to use nuclear weapons in case of need.
This vague threat is intended to keep the United States and NATO countries out of any direct involvement in the battlefield.
Also, the operation of general terrorism on the population of Ukraine.
The mass exodus is in fact ethnic cleansing, and this is probably one of the war goals of the Russians.
Prof. Kotkin, as well as other strategic analysts, stated in the same interview with The New Yorker yesterday that "the Ukrainians are not winning the war. Russia is making good progress in the south, which is a vital area due to control of the Black Sea coast and ports. The Russians are also advancing in the east."
The conclusion is that when the Eastern Front and the Southern Front connect, the main Ukrainian forces will be besieged.
The Russian failure, apparently, is in the Kyiv sector.
Apart from Kyiv, their war, according to Kotkin, is going well.
Keep in mind: We are less than three weeks from the start of the war, and wars usually last much longer.
Russian President Putin, Photo: API
Putin himself, in his decision to go to war, knowingly put Russia into the fog districts of war, whose fate is unknown and certainly not guaranteed.
This is the real difference between Russian leadership and its culture - for better and for worse - and American management culture.
By firing the missiles, Putin imposes on the West the same realm of uncertainty into which he has landed his country.
They are supposed to guess: What does he mean?
Will he try, as some have argued, to conquer all of Ukraine?
Or did he want to divide Ukraine along the Dnieper River, which was considered by the Russians the dividing line between Asia and Europe, so that the river would become the new Berlin Wall?
Since we do not receive many reports of what is happening on the main fronts in the east and south, the bombing in western Ukraine also hurts the soft underbelly of the Ukrainians, and can also serve as a diversionary action from important targets in the south.
Eventually, the completion of the occupation of the Black Sea coast would lower Ukraine to a level of weak autonomy with no way out to sea.
"Moldova minus".
In the midst of all this, diplomatic activity and negotiations continue all the time.
Since the rise in nuclear alert, the American lack of presence has been noticeable.
It is Kamala Harris' embarrassing departure to Poland that highlights the American attitude toward diplomacy.
It has long been expected that Secretary of State in Linken will enter into purposeful negotiations with the Russians to end the war - mainly because of the nuclear dimension.
The negotiations produce a kind of diplomatic screen for massacres and ethnic cleansing;
They also serve, according to Russian Torah, as a strategic respite before increasing military pressure.
Were we wrong?
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