New corona rules with high numbers of infections?
Expert Brockmann draws a car comparison
Created: 03/20/2022, 21:44
By: Martina Lippl
Modeler Dirk Brockmann from Humboldt University Berlin as a guest on the ZDF talk show Markus Lanz (archive photo).
© imago
Where does Germany currently stand in the omicron wave?
Modeler and physicist Dirk Brockmann brings safety aspects to driving.
Berlin – A number of nationwide corona measures were dropped on Sunday (March 20).
There is a lot of criticism and of course quite a mess again.
Many federal states, such as Bavaria, are sticking to the known corona rules for the time being, at least until April 2nd the 2G and 3G rules apply, as well as a mask requirement in schools and shops.
The nationwide incidence in Germany fell for the first time this Sunday.
The number of new infections is also declining.
No trend reversal according to modeler and physicist Dirk Brockmann.
"We are in the midst of rising the second hill of omicron expansion"
Modeler and physicist Dirk Brockmann on the current corona situation
Corona in Germany: "There is still a risk of overburdened clinics"
“We are in the midst of rising the second hill of omicron expansion.
The wave is being driven by the even more contagious subtype BA.2 and by the more normal contact behavior of the population.
In Berlin, for example, the number of contacts is almost back to the level it was before the pandemic," said Brockmann in an interview with
Der Spiegel
.
However, the modeler hopes that the wave will soon find its turning point and that the number of patients in hospitals will then decrease again.
The physicist assesses the current situation as a "highly dynamic phase".
Brockmann still thinks that the clinics will be overburdened.
"The risk is there.
In particular, because the number of people who have to go to the hospital lags behind the number of infected people by a few weeks, further forward-looking action is required.”
New Corona rules: Expert Brockmann draws a car comparison
In order to clarify what anticipatory action means, Brockmann drew an example in the
Spiegel
interview with a well-known safety regulation when driving a car.
"I don't buckle up in the car because I know that I'll have an accident in a hundred meters, but as a precaution in case this happens," explained the expert.
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Brockmann described the situation in the hospitals as critical.
There are currently as many clinic admissions as in the previously severe wave of 2020/2021.
The number of intensive care patients is increasing.
There are already regional supply bottlenecks.
If the incidence from the first omicron wave were to double as a result of the easing, clinics could reach their limits.
In addition, staff would be absent in the event of a high incidence.
"And once we have exceeded this limit, whether in intensive care or normal ward, and only then take countermeasures, the overload will last for weeks," warns Brockmann, who with his working group for the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) Spread and dynamics of infectious diseases modeled.
RKI Corona case numbers on March 20, 2022
New corona infections on March 20, 2022 | 131,792 (previous week: 146,607) |
Corona incidence | 1708.7 (previous week: 1526.8) |
deaths | 49 deaths (previous week: 50 deaths) |
Corona in Germany: course of the pandemic uncertain
However, it is unclear which loosening will lead to which increase in the contact rate.
According to Brockmann, he has mixed feelings about the end of the mask requirement in public spaces.
In his opinion, shaking it up would lead to great uncertainty.
Some would continue to wear the mask voluntarily and others would not.
It is completely unclear how this will affect the protective effect of masks.
Anyone who wears a mask protects themselves and others from infection and vice versa.
To explain this, the physicist again used an image from traffic.
“Just like car drivers stop at a red traffic light so that others can cross the intersection without being endangered.
If a part suddenly no longer follows the rules, the protection partially collapses.”
Shopping without a mask?
Here you will find an overview of the Corona rules that will apply in your supermarket from Monday.
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