A month has passed since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. One can only guess what will happen, and especially what will not happen, in the course of the battles.
The Putin regime's hopes of overthrowing Ukraine through the use of military force have been dashed, and today it is clear that the Russian military is unable to achieve the goals set by the Russian president.
In a rational world this would have paved the way for a halt to hostilities and a political solution between the two countries, but in this case the success of negotiations is not in sight.
The shopping center bombed by Russian forces in Kiev, Ukraine, Photo: AP
As Russian plans stalled and failed on all fronts, anger grew in the Kremlin and was directed almost everywhere.
According to increasing reports, the regime is not content with suppressing opposition demonstrations or banning the publication of the real losses of its army, but is beginning to demand from its loyalists explanations for the failure to prepare and conduct the military and propaganda campaign against Ukraine.
The goats will soon be found in hell, and they will not be simple shinbones.
The shattering of the "military power" showcase is a real catastrophe for the Putin regime.
A tyrant cannot allow himself to be seen naked, for each of the 30 days of fighting has revealed more and more of the remarkable weaknesses of the system built in Putin's days;
Ranging from the lack of motivation of its soldiers, through logistical failures or armaments, to the inability to predict Ukraine’s steadfast resistance.
Russian armored vehicle abandoned and destroyed in battles in Kharkiv, Ukraine, Photo: AP
Nevertheless, it should not be concluded that the failures in the battle will cause the Russians to recover and expedite a respectable way out of the Ukrainian entanglement.
To agree to a peaceful solution and withdraw his worn-out forces, Putin desperately needs something like an achievement.
The people of Russia are going to suffer from a very severe economic crisis, and the numbers of casualties of their army will also be exposed to their eyes sooner or later.
Putin currently has no achievement he can present against the high price he will pay with, and therefore, in his view, he has no choice but to continue to fight.
In fact, the Russians fell into a rented pit themselves.
After demanding that the Ukrainians recognize the loss of the Crimean peninsula and the east of the country, it will be difficult for them to rely on less than that as an achievement.
The Ukrainians, despite the losses and destruction of infrastructure, have no reason to go towards the Russian demands in negotiations.
Military success inspires a fighting spirit in their sails.
Since discovering that the enemy is not as strong as they thought, they understand that it is possible to continue hitting him.
In the last week, the Ukrainian army launched several counter-attacks, repulsed the Russians in the Kyiv region for tens of kilometers and liberated areas that had already fallen to the invaders.
Damage caused to a building in Kiev, Ukraine following an attack by Russia, Photo: AP
Their new situation is reflected in a paradoxical fact: today the Ukrainians have more tanks than at the beginning of the war - although they lost about 100 tanks, they seized much more Russian tools.
Add a steady supply of weapons sent by Western countries, and you will understand why the Ukrainians are convinced that continuing the fighting holds a good future for them.
They are of course interested in stopping the killing of their citizens, but not at the cost of surrender - and the Russian demands are not interpreted otherwise as surrender.
Therefore, what was last month will also be next month.
The armies will continue to fight, and Ukraine will continue to bleed.
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