The meeting of the Russian-Ukrainian negotiating teams in Istanbul gave rise to hope for an end to the war, but a few days later it turned out to be false hopes. The voices emanating from the Russian delegation were seemingly positive. .
He expressed optimism as he softened the Russian stance and hinted that his country no longer insisted on the conquest of Kyiv and the other major cities, no longer aspired to divide Ukraine into two parts, and in general intended to withdraw its army from the Ukrainian capital.
Some commentators saw this as a sign of things to come and began to fantasize about an impending agreement.
In view of the change in Russia's position, they said, the parties were left with unbridgeable gaps - after all, Ukraine is willing to pledge not to join NATO and freeze for a long time the question of the future of the disputed areas, if only the Russians retreat to pre-invasion lines.
The optimism soon disappeared following the response from Moscow, which ruled that Medinsky "was not properly understood."
At the same time, the wounded units of the Russian army on the Kyiv front were moving backwards, back to the Belarusian border, but this was a retreat of failure and not of greatness or reconciliation.
These units failed to achieve any military goal, suffered tremendous casualties, and following the counterattacks of the Ukrainians lost cities and outposts, which fell into Russian hands in the first weeks of the war.
Their withdrawal marked Russia's understanding that no military benefit would accrue to it from stretching its army to three fronts (southern Ukraine, east and north) and it would be better to fold from the northern front as long as possible.
A building in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol that was destroyed after an attack by the Russian army, yesterday, Photo: Reuters
The withdrawal of the Russians from Bocha, Irpin and the other towns near Kiev, revealed the extent of the massacre they perpetrated on the local population.
No one will be able to ignore the sights that were discovered.
These atrocities will prevent Putin from returning to the "World Leaders" club, even if the fighting stops.
It is not known whether Madinsky's softening was intended for deception, to make everyone believe that the ceasefire was imminent, or whether he was instructed to present folding as a gesture of goodwill.
Either way, the Russian units retreating to the north are not returning to their home barracks.
They are being reorganized and will be sent to the Eastern Front, where the Russian military effort will be concentrated in the second month of fighting.
Putin will bet on everything
To save his image as a "powerful man" and his regime's image as a "terror of the world," Putin demands a significant military achievement, one that will not be questioned.
After the slaps on the cheek that have been inflicted on his army so far, he will bet on everything and try to register a decisive victory in eastern Ukraine, in order to expand the area dominated by pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas.
If that happens, the Russians will be able to act on the advice of the philosopher Michel de Montagne ("when they did not get what they wanted, they pretended to ask for what was achieved"), and approach the dismantling of the economic sanctions imposed on them.
If the Russian army also fails in the decisive campaign in the East, the Ukraine war will be recorded as one of the low points heralding the decline of the Putin regime.
Were we wrong?
Fixed!
If you found an error in the article, we'll be happy for you to share it with us