Weather expert makes forecast for summer 2022: June with "risk of getting wet"

Created: 04/11/2022, 21:39

Passers-by enjoy the low evening sun in the Volkspark Wilmersdorf in Berlin in the summer of 2021.

Weather experts are now making their first forecasts for the summer of 2022. © picture alliance/dpa |

Kay Nietfeld

Many look forward to summer.

But can we expect constant rain or a heat wave this year?

A weather expert has already ventured the forecast for June, July and August.

Munich – Many are already dreaming of summer.

Finally back after work to the park or to the nearby lake to enjoy the sun.

But will this summer be as rainy as last year?

Or should we expect a heat wave?

A meteorologist from the online service

has dared to forecast the weather for summer 2022 well in advance.

Weather in summer 2022: July and August look "very good" - June with "risk of getting wet"

Meteorologist Jan Schenk from

dares a forecast for the summer of 2022. In the summer, Europe is divided into two parts, says Schenk: “The south and especially the south-east of Europe will be warm again.

The north, the northwest is getting cooler.

For Germany, that means again: We are a bit in between.” It could be a bit cooler in the north of Germany in particular, but a bit warmer in the south, the expert continues and adds: “Now we’re going to talk about the months.

The fact is, the meteorological summer begins in June.

In June there are actually still the biggest question marks, especially in the direction of: Will it still be a wet June after all?” That could actually happen and is roughly comparable to last year.

"But I don't want to stir up panic," assures the weather expert, but it could actually be

For July and August, however, he sees the forecast as positive: "July looks very good and ultimately August too, with the restriction that it is a bit cooler in the north." Overall, however, temperatures will be higher than average.

“Because we have global warming,” the expert addresses the climate crisis.

March 2022 was already one of the sunniest in 70 years.

Then the weather expert mentions the so-called multi-decadal oscillation of the Atlantic.

"Sometimes it's a bit controversial whether they really exist," admits the moderator.

But you can follow the curve well and you are therefore in a warm phase.

"We can assume that it will be a relatively warm summer - with the caveat that there is a risk of it getting wet at the beginning," concludes Jan Schenk.

But how accurate can weather forecasts be and is it really possible to look months into the future?

Weather: How accurate are forecasts - and how far into the future can they reliably look?

"Predictions are difficult, especially when they concern the future," said the American writer Mark Twain.

The same applies to weather forecasts.

The further away the point in time, the more difficult it is to forecast the weather correctly.

According to the German Weather Service (DWD), the weather conditions are more stable in summer than in winter - and therefore easier to predict.

Nevertheless, the computer-aided forecasts usually only go up to seven or ten days into the future.

The accuracy of the forecasts has improved tremendously over the years: the accuracy of the 24-hour forecast of surface pressure, for example, rose from around 74 percent in 1968 to around 97 percent in 2008. Today, even the seven-day forecasts are more accurate than the 48- hours at the beginning of the computer age in 1968, explains the DWD.

Today it is possible to predict the temperature for the next day with an accuracy of between 90 and 95 percent with a margin of plus to minus two degrees.

Although the trend shows that the quality of short-term and long-term weather forecasts has increased, it is still not possible to reliably look several months into the future and correctly predict the weather.

So it remains to be seen how the summer of 2022 will really turn out.