Last survey on the French runoff election Macron against Le Pen: Europe is threatened with an earthquake on Sunday

Created: 04/23/2022, 21:47

By: Bedrettin Bölükbasi

In France, the runoff between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen is pending.

According to the latest survey, Europe is definitely threatened with an earthquake.

Munich/Paris — On April 10, the first round of the French presidential elections took place.

Incumbent Emmanuel Macron emerged victorious with 27.8 percent of the vote.

Followed by the right-wing national candidate Marine Le Pen with 23.2 percent.

So on Sunday

it says: runoff between Macron and Le Pen in the second round of the elections.

In the last elections in 2017, Macron, who then faced Le Pen again in the second round, was able to achieve a clear victory.

Will Macron be able to win so easily again this time?

The latest survey of the 2022 French elections by the newspaper

shows: Macron still has a lead, but it is nowhere near as big as it was in 2017. In the course of the elections, a different picture could emerge and thus a tremor for Europe .

France election 2022: ten percentage points ahead for Macron - significantly lower than in 2017

's "Poll of Polls" format

is a composite of numerous, reliable polls designed to provide the most accurate forecast possible for the election.

As of Friday

, Macron received 55 percent of all votes in the second round of the election.

Le Pen, on the other hand, can look forward to 45 percent of the votes.

Based on that, Macron still maintains a ten percentage point lead.

Compared to 2017, Le Pen gets in the way of Macron dangerously.

Because in 2017, Macron received 66.1 percent of the votes, while Le Pen won 33.9 percent of the votes - a clear lead of more than 32 percentage points.

The fact that this lead has now shrunk to ten percentage points should set alarm bells ringing for the French incumbent.

It is also important to note that surveys can be fraught with errors in both directions.

France election 2022: Macron and Le Pen will fight for votes from left-wing candidate Mélenchon

According to

, left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon's first-round votes will be pivotal for both Macron and Le Pen.

After all, Mélenchon came in third with 22 percent of the vote, just behind Le Pen.

For Macron, on the other hand, things are looking better.

A significant proportion of Mélenchon voters, almost half, do not want to vote for either candidate at all in the second round.

36 percent of Mélenchon voters said they want to vote for Macron in the runoff, while 19 percent want to vote for Le Pen.

However, 45 percent of Mélenchon voters want to stay at home and prefer not to vote on Sunday.

Both Macron and Le Pen have campaigned hard to win over Jean-Luc Mélenchon's base.

France election 2022: Voter confidence in Macron and Le Pen varies by area

The

poll also shows who the electorate trusts more, depending on the issue.

70 percent of the participants said they trusted Macron in the Ukraine war.

For Le Pen, this value was only 28 percent, in stark contrast to Macron.

This is where Le Pen's pro-Russian statements are likely to have had an effect.

Voters clearly trust Macron on issues such as economic growth, the corona pandemic, the environment and unemployment.

However, when it comes to terrorism, migration and security, Le Pen gains more confidence on these issues.

Macron still enjoys a lead of ten percent.

But the fact that the lead is significantly smaller compared to the last election makes the 2022 presidential election extremely exciting.

All polling stations are scheduled to close at 8 p.m.

You can read here when a result of the French election can be expected.