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Presidential 2022, second round: the 6 lessons of the re-election of Emmanuel Macron

2022-04-25T04:45:35.664Z


Emmanuel Macron emerged victorious from the second round of the presidential election. The President of the Republic will begin a second term with


The cries echoed in the village hall of the Élysée at 8 p.m.

Emmanuel and Brigitte Macron already knew that both would be back for five years, but joy naturally took over.

Here he is re-elected to the presidency of the Republic with a fairly clear lead against his rival RN Marine Le Pen, with 58.55% of the vote according to the final figures communicated overnight from Sunday to Monday by the Ministry of the Interior.

The re-elected head of state once again relied on symbolism by addressing his supporters from the Champ-de-Mars, again to the tune of Ode to Joy, the European anthem.

This victory now opens a new era in the political history of France, an era promised to many upheavals.

Macron deprived of a state of grace

Emmanuel Macron probably knew even before the start of this second round that he could not reach his score acquired five years ago against Marine Le Pen.

That he would not obtain 66.1% of the votes cast.

This is indeed the case.

The outgoing president has lost just over seven points since 2017.

Its score remains however beyond all the projections made by the polling institutes over the past fortnight and the lead remains comfortable.

This tends to prove that despite a massive abstention, he was able to benefit from vote transfers from the ranks of the left.

Since the Champ-de-Mars, he seems to have become aware of it.

"I also know that many of our compatriots voted for me today, not to support the ideas I hold, but to block those of the far right," he said.

And I want to thank them here and tell them that I am aware that this vote binds me for the years to come.

I am the custodian of their sense of duty, of their attachment to the Republic and of respect for the differences that have been expressed in recent weeks.

»

To those who voted for me, not to support my ideas but to block those of the extreme right, your vote obliges me.

This evening, I am no longer the candidate of one camp, but the President of all.

— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) April 24, 2022

The outgoing president will not benefit from a state of grace.

The hardest part may begin now, if he intends to reconcile a country fractured by crises, suspicious of its elites.

The extreme right at the top

The defeat is frank, but Marine Le Pen has something to put this Sunday evening into perspective.

Never has the far right obtained such a good score in the second round of a presidential election.

Five years ago, she could not do better than a score of 32.9% of the vote.

This time, his score increases significantly, to 41.45%.

The far-right candidate has come a long way in this presidential campaign.

She had to resist the rapid start of the media phenomenon Éric Zemmour, who ended up sinking while she was gaining ground, until she became Emmanuel Macron's main competitor.

She has succeeded in demonizing herself despite a program that several specialists consider unconstitutional.

She has increased her pool of votes and the unprecedented defeat of the Republican right in the first round allows her to come out of this presidential election much stronger.

Under these conditions, will she really hand over?

Record abstention

28.01% of registered voters shunned the ballot boxes this Sunday, according to the Ministry of the Interior.

It is unheard of, in the second round of a presidential election, since 1969. Abstention had reached 25.4% in 2017, 19.7% in 2012 and 16% in 2007, for example.

According to an Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for Le Parisien, France Télévisions and Radio France, 35% of French people who planned not to vote on the eve of the second round justified it by the fact that "no candidate corresponds to [their ] ideas”.

25% said they were "enough to have to vote just to block a candidate" and 24% replied that "the bets are already made, there is no suspense over the winner".

"For some, there was the idea that we would start again in 2022 what we had known in 2017, with an Emmanuel Macron announced as the winner in advance by the polls and a Marine Le Pen who wanted to be demonized", comments political scientist Luc Rouban, according to whom this election also marks “the death of the Republican front”.

As always, young people are the most abstaining.

The West Indies, from Macron to Le Pen

Total trend reversal: Marine Le Pen obtained nearly 61% of the votes in Martinique and Guyana, and even almost 70% in Guadeloupe.

This is two to three times more than five years ago, when she was largely beaten by Emmanuel Macron.

"I expected a tightening, rather than such a reversal of trend," says Justin Daniel, professor of political science at the University of the West Indies.

The political scientist sees it "above all a vote against Macron rather than a vote in favor of Marine Le Pen, and the best proof of this is the high score obtained by Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round".

The rebellious leader had come by far in the lead in the first round in these overseas territories.

There, his call to "not give a voice to the far right" does not seem to have been heard there.

How to explain this vote of “anger” in the second round?

The last five years have been marked by numerous tensions between the West Indies and the State: vaccination obligation for caregivers, entry into force of the health pass, trial around chlordecone, this pesticide which has contaminated more than 90% of the adult population, etc

Marine Le Pen has also capitalized on the major focus of her campaign, purchasing power, in these territories which are poorer than the French average.

“The vote for this party goes beyond the simple expression of a sanction.

It also translates a part of adhesion on the speeches and the positions which are the mark of the RN ”, indicated to us in 2019 the political scientist specializing in Overseas Yvan Combeau.

He insisted on "the intensity of social issues (purchasing power, salary, housing)" in Overseas France.

A France split in two

On the one hand, a very old or very young adult France, qualified, and living comfortably favored the Macron vote.

On the other hand, Marine Le Pen has "outperformed" within the electorate of intermediate adult age (25-60 years old), inhabitants with few qualifications or living rather sparingly.

This is what emerges from an Ipsos Sopra Steria survey for Le Parisien, France Télévisions and Radio France, carried out from Thursday to Saturday among 4,000 French people representative of the population.

The interviewers also asked respondents if they were satisfied with their life.

A France cut in two is taking shape: 79% of those who say they are “dissatisfied” and only 31% of those who are happy voted for Marine Le Pen.

The RN candidate, who focused a large part of her campaign on purchasing power, will have succeeded in sucking up this “anger” from part of the inhabitants.

Redial and questions

The evening of this second round was also marked by the presence of the main losers of the first round.

Because the completion of this presidential campaign may mark the beginning of a new era in the history of French political life with a possible unprecedented reorganization of the country's political forces.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon anticipated before the second round, calling on the French to elect him as Prime Minister by placing his movement at the head of the next legislative elections.

The PS, which has almost disappeared from the radar, says it is open to discussion with a view to alliances.

Negotiations have been initiated with the Greens, the Communists and the NPA.

The situation is not really different on the right.

The Les Républicains party faces the risk of implosion, between those who say they are open to rallying with Emmanuel Macron and a right wing favorable to a recomposition between "patriots".

Data that Éric Zemmour tried to take advantage of this evening, he who spoke 30 minutes after the announcement of the results to call for the union “of all rights” on June 12 and 19.

“We must forget our quarrels and join forces, it is essential, it is our duty,” he urged.

Source: leparis

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