In a series of holiday interviews, some would say quite frightened, to the radio channels on the eve of Passover, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett made it clear that the government is not falling and that it has a majority in the Knesset.
The reality is a little different.
The government has no majority.
The coalition managed to stop the drift and prevent the retirement of another MK who would tip the scales in favor of the opposition, but the drift may resume with the resumption of the Knesset session in ten days. Opposition members.
The government does not have a majority to pass government laws, including the Bnei Gantz pension law, for which it threatened to dissolve the government only a few weeks ago.
There is nothing to talk about approving the state budget, as Lieberman wants.
The coalition will try to talk about the heart of MK Idit Silman or threaten her that she will be next in line to be declared retired after Amichai Shikli. - Everything is open. The opposition will not try to make it difficult for them and will not bring a flood of bills that will make them support it contrary to the government's position.
The assessment in Netanyahu's environment is that the government will fall during the next session, and that the chances of advancing the election or establishing a right-wing government headed by him in the current Knesset have increased.
Contacts are currently underway with five coalition members, and the Likud estimates that the retirement of one of them is closer than ever.
However, for the time being, the demands made by coalition members to move into the opposition are too great and inapplicable.
Gafni's bitterness
One of the main issues and donors, Knight Kara, received far-reaching proposals from Bennett, which led him to cut off negotiations with the Likud and stick to the government. But these promises, it seems, have no cover. Realized he was wrong in the calculation, tried to call Silman to join him in a series of reforms and achievements. He even sent her an open letter on the subject. Silman did not respond. Neither will she respond.
Another surprising name is Massoud Ghanaim from Ram. Saar, Ze'ev Elkin, Benny Begin or Sharan Hashakel, have preferred to disappear in recent weeks and not push Ram's legs out of the coalition.
According to senior Likud officials, as soon as another MK joins the opposition - and for them it is only a matter of time before that happens - the Likud will submit a bill to dissolve the Knesset and pass it in a preliminary reading. A few members of the New Tikva faction have told their Likud colleagues in recent days that if they join Netanyahu, their model will be that of Bnei Gantz. Gantz, they say, broke his promise not to sit under Netanyahu but did not pay an electoral price for it. Perceived as hostile to Netanyahu and not as one who serves him, this is the way, they say, that they will go if the only option is an election.
While among the ultra-Orthodox parties there is a consensus that Netanyahu is the leader of the camp, Moshe Gafni walks around with a full stomach.
Unlike the young MKs, he still remembers the days when the ultra-Orthodox parties were the tongue-in-cheek, the kings of kings and crowns of leaders. The ultra-Orthodox were not in the pocket of the right then. More than once the ultra-Orthodox factions went with the left.
Those days are over for them.
Not necessarily because of the ultra-Orthodox, more because of the left.
The surrender of the left parties to extremist liberalism and progressism no longer allows the ultra-Orthodox factions to be a part of it.
Rabin, Peres, Barak - all left-wing leaders who knew how to walk with the ultra-Orthodox.
Very far from Horowitz, Michaeli and Yair Lapid.
The one who recognizes the trend is Bnei Gantz.
The only one of the leaders of the left-wing parties who never stops winking at the ultra-Orthodox.
In a series of interviews in recent days, he expressed regret that the ultra-Orthodox are not in government and said that he lacks them.
The only one who can cooperate with Gafni outside the opposition is Ganz, but this is not a particularly attractive commodity.
Ganz could have been prime minister if he had wanted to for a long time.
Now it seems too late, and the ultra-Orthodox are once again being pushed into the arms of Likud and religious Zionism, much to the chagrin of the chairman of Torah Judaism.
Message in the middle of the night
It was after one o'clock at night when the phone at the Netanyahu family's home in Caesarea rang.
It took a while for Benjamin Netanyahu to grab the earpiece and listen intently to his interlocutor.
Yariv Levin ordered him to come immediately to the offices of the advertising company "Vatkin's Boutique", owned by Hila and Neria Vatkin in Modi'in.
Hila is a very close friend of Idit Silman.
The advertising company she owns works, among other things, with the Religious Zionist Party, led by Bezalel Smutrich.
When Netanyahu arrived, Levin and Silman were already there.
It soon became clear that the move was complete.
After several talks and after debating the issue quite a bit, Silman informed Benny Shicha that she had made the final decision to leave the coalition.
Silman did not want the role of Sarah.
The chair of the Knesset Health Committee and the chair of the coalition were the roles of her dreams.
These positions were in his pocket until last week, the day she decided to resign from the coalition and join the ranks of the opposition.
The day after the announcement, the government tried to persuade her to stay and even promised her the position of health minister, who was the stumbling block from the beginning following Nitzan Horowitz's decision to allow visitors to Israeli medical centers to carry chametz in their midst during Passover.
Silman rejected the offer.
In fact, from the moment she announces her retirement, Silman has not had any contacts with her former coalition members.
They missed their opportunities to fight her.
And there were quite a few of them.
The day before the announcement of her retirement, Silman appeared in public and announced that the introduction of chametz into the medical centers was not acceptable to her.
Her statement was clear: if the introduction of chametz is allowed, she intends to resign from the coalition.
Her call was answered mostly with contempt.
The prime minister announced that he was not being talked to in the ultimatums and Ayelet Shaked generally thought that Silman was fighting for her position within the faction, nothing beyond that.
Silman saw the contempt and said nothing.
The next evening she dropped the bomb.
She no longer answered the emergency calls.
It's not just about chametz.
In recent weeks Silman has begun to talk about the current government in terms of impurity and purity.
Over time, she saw the government as an impurity to be avoided.
One of the moves that accelerated these thoughts was Avigdor Lieberman's decision to cancel the ultra-Orthodox dormitory allowances.
She went to Bennett and told him it was a mistake.
These are mortgage holders, people with debts who need money, it is possible to take down the ultra-Orthodox, but in a more humane way, to prepare them for it, to formulate a different outline.
Polished politicians know how to take the cash and not settle for a delayed check.
Even today, Silman knows that there is a chance that she will not join the Likud.
In choosing between roles and appointments and values, Silman chose the latter option
Her words fell on deaf ears.
The prime minister did not understand what she wanted from him.
So too when she complained to him about the loss of right-wing values.
Silman thought it was right to save the country from another election campaign, but also thought that she and her friends on the right would stand together to protect the Land of Israel, the settlement, and all their other things were committed throughout the years.
Slowly, however, she saw Bennett move away from all of this, not only not fighting but fully cooperating with left-wing elements in his government.
She began to ponder the question of whether Bennett was carried away by his lofty role, or whether he used the right-wing ticket in the first place to fulfill his dream of becoming prime minister, while these issues did not speak to him at all and did not interest him.
With these thoughts Silman realized she could not go on.
That the man she followed had ceased to be credible in her eyes.
The stars and the moonlight
Silman is a believing woman.
Her husband, Shmulik, also defines himself as more associated with the ultra-Orthodox current of religious Zionism. Not only new insights have emerged for the couple in recent weeks about the government of which Silman is a member, but also other signs. .
The main signal was given to them by the Rebbe of Lubavitch, exactly on the days when he turned 120 years old.
The sign they received shook them.
This was when a Chabadnik from Rehovot showed Shmulik a video in which Netanyahu met with the Rebbe during the weekly dollar distribution.
Shmulik came with the phone to Idit upset, showed her the video, and asked her: "Do you want to be on the side of this whole government, or on the side of the Rebbe of Lubavitch?".
Tears began to flow from her eyes.
A sign from the Rebbe.
Silman,
When Nir Auerbach made his final decision to join the government, he wrote a long post explaining the move.
Among the explanations was also the joint performance of Avraham Fried and Aviv Geffen at the Sultan's Pool in Jerusalem, where he was present.
Auerbach explained that when he saw the two together he realized that there was a possibility of unity among the people.
It is therefore quite amusing that the same Fried, a follower of the Lubavitcher Rebbe, worked for Silman in the exact opposite way.
It was when she first listened to Chabadnik's new song, "There is no one else but him," which he co-wrote with musician Tomer Hadadi. "I climbed mountain peaks, on the way I also asked for the advice of the sages, I did not let my eyes, dazzle from the sights, and I realized that too much is sometimes less, I took to myself out of the silence.
A song for the soul. "Silman felt that the lyrics of the song were written for her and again tears flowed down her cheek.
Contrary to the words of the cabinet ministers, Silman's decision did not result from a promise of a Likud armor or a ministerial position.
She could get all of these now from her coalition members.
Polished politicians know how to take the cash for themselves and not settle for a deferred check.
Even today, she knows that there is a chance that she will not join the Likud.
Shimina can also declare her a retiree, which will prevent her from receiving armor in the Likud or in religious Zionism.
But in the end, in choosing between roles and appointments and values, Silman chose the latter option.
In negotiations with Smutrich and Levin (she did not meet with Netanyahu even once before her announcement) - not roles and armor were at the forefront of her mind, but to be accepted by them and receive encouragement from them.
She knew that the government would try to belittle her, deprive her of the veil of values and present the move as political and cynical, and it was important to her to hear from Netanyahu and Smutrich that they accept her apology for being a member of the government and not continue to attack her.
Netanyahu, who arrived in Modi'in in the middle of the night, immediately accepted her request.
From then until today, Silman travels around the country and apologizes in full, a not easy act for a politician, any politician.
Were we wrong?
Fixed!
If you found an error in the article, we'll be happy for you to share it with us